My experience so far / few questions

  • Hello all,

    I joined around a month ago, and was very excited about this. I have been trading on betfair for many years, but was seeking a new challenge.
    My initial strategy was to focus on long term capital growth by hoping the website really takes off and the index sees natural growth. Therefore I bought a few top 100 trackers.
    A I started to learn the mechanics of the index, I realised this was spreading myself too thinly to gain any material profits, and therefore have slowly but surely reduced the numbers of players in my portfolio.

    I seem to be achieving steady capital growth and dividends at the moment, not sure if this is just the market improving as a whole, or my shaping of my portfolio!!!
    so am debating putting larger amounts in.

    A few questions:

    1. Do the “large” spreads make it unfeasible to make decent money here?
    2. Are IPO’s worth the hassle? Seen people grumbling about them a lot.
    3. Do we know any of the company’s long term plans? Further expansion into other countries? National tv advertising etc........
    4. Will the market suffer a downturn post the World Cup?


  • @NewUser115892

    1. In theory the trackers should work well enough to cover the spreads. I have data from 6 months ago, in that time the FOOTIE has increased by 40%. However, most media money comes from the top 20 rather than the top 200 so with some cherry picking you can probably find better returns.

    2. Personally I stay well clear of IPOs. Undoubtedly there is good money to be made if you can get in there within the first few seconds before a player rises but the risk is too high for me. Risk of either getting in a few minutes late after price has already risen or the player simply not rising enough in price to ever get a return.

    3. Announcements have been made for FI to be released in Sweden, Canada and more recently Ireland. As far as I know there have been no set dates for the release and no prior advertisement in these places (so its not as if 1 million Swedes are sitting on the edge of their seats waiting drop their money into FI).
      I havn't heard about national TV advertisement so can't comment on that. They are still missing some basics like an android app.

    4. As for post-world cup, who knows? I expect the markets to be volatile but hopefully the excitement results in more people talking to their friends/colleagues about FI, bringing more investors.

  • @NewUser115892 if you're going ipos follow agatello advice makes a big difference

    1. Regarding spreads, the trick is not to sell players on the way down. If you sell to market then you just pay 2% commission without a spread. A lot of people make very good money so it is possible.
    2. I prefer not to get involved so best to listen to others.
    3. As per above answers.
    4. Last year in the summer, the index went bonkers with triple media buzz and players doubled in value overnight and vice versa. Morata was crazy with his price collapsing when he was going to Milan then exploding to £5.50 when he was off to United then collapsing again when they bought Lukaku then recovering when Chelsea bought him. Its a bit different this year with the world cup but transfer windows on the index aren't for the faint hearted - you can make and lose a lot of money very quickly . Be aware that money will move from players not involved in the summer to those who are. Last year, I made good money by selling the stable players and buying the transfer spec players in advance. But lost a lot of it by playing the rest of the window badly. My strategy will be to sell players like Kane and Messi early on in the tournament and hopefully buy them back cheaper when they drop post world cup. I might leave the index alone regarding the transfers as I simply don't react quick enough.

  • Q1: I would say yes, they make it difficult to profit from a quick flip but holding mid-longer term I would think should see you right.
    Q2: I wouldn't touch IPO's... Someone is certainly making money on them but unless you have the equipment and you can lump on in 30 seconds after release then you'll do well to get any 'fashionable' player at a good price? Not knowing IPO release times and not having an easy way to find out when players are launched makes investing in them (at a low price) very difficult.
    Q3: As above - I think there's reasonable growth opportunities for the company and expansion is the next step. As various levels of trading becomes more 'available' through social like platforms I would think FI would need to iron out its early platform difficulties to stay ahead of any potential competitors - will there be platforms offering similar going forward?? I think we are a long way of FI at it's biggest and best so getting in on a growing market is certainly a positive.
    Q4: I think yes to a degree... Think last summer we saw a general drop in trading for obvious reasons and we might see some cash outs during and around the WC which sounds to me a good time to buy as i'm sure the MB transfer gossip will be bouncing on some players whilst by the time the new season gets under way everything will be back to positive again!!

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