Andreas Christensen - The next 'John Terry' !!



  • Hey Guys

    As a Chelsea fan i have noticed a lot that our defense has been rusty since John Terry left but it looks like we may have found a successor.....Andreas Christensen

    Here are the stats:.

    On loan to Borussia Monchengladbach for two seasons and played 62 Bundesliga games, scoring 5 goals....that's not bad going for a 19/20 year old !!

    Already played 11 Premier League games for Chelsea and is currently kicking out '34 million' David Luiz of the starting XI (who to be honest feels a little threatened at the moment but that story is for another day).

    and he will be starting for Denmark in the World Cup which will attract the media !

    At a price of £1.61, that is a good starting price to start investing considering what you are paying for the people above him....JAMES MILNER @ £2.31 !! REALLY !!

    Let's hear your opinions....

    Cheers

    AndyP



  • Defenders are probably the worst position to buy. £1.61 seems heavily over-valued. He isn't going to be a media magnet (seriously why would the English media focus on a Denmark centre back ?) Is he likely to be a PB threat ?

    Yes. He is better value than James Millner.

    As a comparison, Alvaro Morata costs roughly twice as much. Is Christiansen likely to yield 50% of the dividends of Morata (who has multiple MB wins already) ? No. Is he likely to win 10% of the dividends Morata will win ? Probably not. So if Morata is worth £3.50, should Christiansen be worth about 35p ? Probably.

    Perfectly happen for people to promote their players - I assume you own him but you are going to have to justify anyone buying them.



  • @mike778 agreed, well said



  • Milner is a red herring for comparison purposes. His graph is bizarre looks like an IT glitch bumped him that high...?



  • @Dave-C said in Andreas Christensen - The next 'John Terry' !!:

    Milner is a red herring for comparison purposes. His graph is bizarre looks like an IT glitch bumped him that high...?

    Yep all the IPO players are a little bit skewed price wise.

    People need to remember when you buy a player, all you buy are the chance to win dividends. That is it. There is no physical asset. Someone like Hazard has been winning dividends on a regular basis. Logically there is no valid reason to pay £1.50 for a player who will win less than a third of what Hazard will win.

    If you aren't buying for dividends then you are buying for capital gain. But if a player isn't worth buying for dividends then why will others buy him ? You are basically banking on people making bad financial decisions which seems a pretty questionable way to invest.



  • Cheers for your opinions so far...

    I do agree that he will not get a lot of MB wins and also you do get a lot more PB wins returns from Strikers/Midfielders but as a defender fighting for a PB win in his category then I think he may get a win soon....



  • @mike778

    AFAIK Milner's £2.31 is not because he was IPO'd at that price - his 1 year graph shows him bobbing around 40p for ages then the bizarre spike to £2.31 it looks like a glitch - but I wasn't on FI then so happy to be corrected

    On your point that the only reason to buy players is for dividends I have to respectively disagree. If I've read the market correctly last few weeks any dividends earned from top players would in general terms not make up for the fall in capital value of their futures, So short term anyway chasing dividends would not have been the best strategy. And medium/long term the influx of new IPO players is going to make chasing dividends less lucrative than in the past

    FWIW I've been focusing on under-valued mid-range players and transfer prospects in the penny stocks. Overall capital value is up and as a bonus (but not main strategy) I've earned some dividends. So to answer your question, IMO it's legitimate to invest in players who might not earn dividends if you think their capital value might increase due to good performances and/or transfer speculation

    Many ways to skin a cat eh ;-)



  • @Dave-C Milner was launched at £2.30 possibly even £2.31, I wouldn't be surprised if no-one actually owns him. But agree with you regarding all the different ways to make a profit - it's why it's so addictive :-D



  • Just don't buy defenders. Simple as that really. Only defender I may consider is Timothy fosu what's his name from man u cos he's cheap as owt and can only rise as a man u player. Performance buzz is a waste of time compared to buying players who are likely to actually increase in real life value. I'm drunk as I write his but seriously stop wasting your time on defenders. It really is of very little value compared to midfielders and attackers.



  • @NewUser78072 said in Andreas Christensen - The next 'John Terry' !!:

    @Dave-C Milner was launched at £2.30 possibly even £2.31, I wouldn't be surprised if no-one actually owns him. But agree with you regarding all the different ways to make a profit - it's why it's so addictive :-D

    Ok thanks. Milner's 1yr graph is as crazy as his valuation! Although he is leading the assists charts (seriously) in this year's UCL so maybe we should all start piling in...



  • Milner IPO'd at £2.30 - that is 100% fact. He might have a 40p low because he may have been relegated back in the olden days - can't remember.

    So as has been previously stated don't even think about using him as a benchmark - although FI would love you to :-)

    There are masses of players on the index that IPO'd at silly prices and anyone coming in new really does need to focus on the graph to see if that price is realistic or not.



  • @Dave-C said in Andreas Christensen - The next 'John Terry' !!:

    @mike778

    AFAIK Milner's £2.31 is not because he was IPO'd at that price - his 1 year graph shows him bobbing around 40p for ages then the bizarre spike to £2.31 it looks like a glitch - but I wasn't on FI then so happy to be corrected

    On your point that the only reason to buy players is for dividends I have to respectively disagree. If I've read the market correctly last few weeks any dividends earned from top players would in general terms not make up for the fall in capital value of their futures, So short term anyway chasing dividends would not have been the best strategy. And medium/long term the influx of new IPO players is going to make chasing dividends less lucrative than in the past

    FWIW I've been focusing on under-valued mid-range players and transfer prospects in the penny stocks. Overall capital value is up and as a bonus (but not main strategy) I've earned some dividends. So to answer your question, IMO it's legitimate to invest in players who might not earn dividends if you think their capital value might increase due to good performances and/or transfer speculation

    Many ways to skin a cat eh ;-)

    To be clear I'm not suggesting you should ever 'chase dividends'. The worst thing you can do is jump on a bandwagon and pay a 50p premium on someone's price in order to blag a couple of media buzzes.

    But ... the only value a player has is based on their ability to win dividends. Anything else is artificial. If a player is unlikely to win a dividend then they are essentially worthless. Regardless of how well they play or whether anyone thinks they are under-valued. Capital growth is a pretty important strategy (currently abut 65% of my profit is capital growth and 35% from dividends) but it really should be based on players potential to win dividends in the future (in whatever form including via a transfer) that isn't currently reflected in their price.

    I sort of agree that you can make money from people making bad decisions - you are right in that transfer news can see a player increase in value even if that increase isn't reflected by dividend potential. This is very much a fake increase though which shouldn't happen if the market works like a 'proper financial market' if a player isn't any more valuable (and if they aren't going to win more dividends they are no more valuable) then people shouldn't be paying higher prices - doesn't make financial sense.



  • @mike778

    I appreciate the reply and it's an interesting discussion

    If you're saying that capital growth as a result of transfer speculation is included in your definition of dividends then I don't think we're disagreeing

    But if you're basing your investment strategy on the expectation that FI works like a "proper financial market" then good luck with that ;-) Even proper financial markets fail to work like proper financial markets some of the time! Black swans, irrational exuberance, etc. Traders can still make money in those situations as long as they've figured out the angles...



  • Bottom line Andreas Christensen at £1.61 -bargain.



  • @Dave-C said in Andreas Christensen - The next 'John Terry' !!:

    @mike778

    I appreciate the reply and it's an interesting discussion

    If you're saying that capital growth as a result of transfer speculation is included in your definition of dividends then I don't think we're disagreeing

    But if you're basing your investment strategy on the expectation that FI works like a "proper financial market" then good luck with that ;-) Even proper financial markets fail to work like proper financial markets some of the time! Black swans, irrational exuberance, etc. Traders can still make money in those situations as long as they've figured out the angles...

    True but FI really defies logic at time.

    For a while, if say Vardy was the only forward playing so was guaranteed a 2p dividend, I could buy him 2 weeks earlier and then sell him the day before his 'probable PB win' for a 10% profit. Could do this pretty reliably which is just nonsense really. Its basically just people being dumb paying 10p premiums to win 2p. Unfortunately the mass IPOs knackered that strategy. I assume that as the markets mature and there is more serious money, people will do less dumb things which is a shame.

    Transfer flips worked the same - when it was in the news as a 'probable transfer' a player's price boomed by £1 only to drop back £1 a few days later when it was out of the news. This isn't the market acting a bit oddly - its the market acting like its a toddler who has raided his dad's whiskey supplies and stumbled on his dad's FI account. You've got to assume its not always going to be like this.



  • @NewUser49172 said in Andreas Christensen - The next 'John Terry' !!:

    Bottom line Andreas Christensen at £1.61 -bargain.

    Christiansen is an interesting point ...

    Under normal circumstances, I would say he is worth about 50p or so

    However if his price cannot ever drop below £1.50 then he could be worth a punt. He is unlikely to make much in the way of capital gains but if the most you can lose is about 20p with commission then it could be a not much to lose fun gamble as would only take a few PBs to pay back the commission. Too much of a gamble till we find out what happens to the new IPOs price though and whether they can go below the release price.


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