Why is no one buying Diallo ?



  • I just got a load of Diallo at 40p, and i imagined he'd be hitting 70p easily at least, given the new Arsenal head of recruitment, Sven Mislintat, has said that he is his main target, he's France U21 Captain, played every game for Mainz, etc.
    Weird, any thoughts ?
    I'm new to the forum, i'm starting to sense that there is a lot of irrationality on this index, and i mean A LOT (re my Costa / Vitolo post yesterday).



  • Can't even find him but even if I could I don't buy defenders cos there's not much money in them.



  • The question is where will he generate dividends ?

    When you buy a player , all you buy is the chance to win dividends. Will a transfer to Arsenal capture all of the media attention to claim a MB win. Does his style of play lead him to winning PBs ahead of all of the defenders on the index ? Being good player in itself isn't worth anything.



  • @mike778 being a good player will likely lead to price rises. a player rising in value is just as good as winning dividends



  • @NewUser9338 said in Why is no one buying Diallo ?:

    @mike778 being a good player will likely lead to price rises. a player rising in value is just as good as winning dividends

    Sort of agree.

    Logically though - the only value a player has is winning dividends. If they can't do that they are useless. You aren't buying a player you are buying a bet that they will win dividends. Of course its fine to buy something that is useless for 50p if you can sell it for 70p which is what happens quite a lot with flips, people don't buy a player because they think he is worth it, they buy him because they think he will rise which literally creates a bubble. Down the line though , you would expect the market to mature a bit.



  • Agree on the points above but the main thing to note here is that Diallo is NOT useless... he actually comes into that <1:10 goalscoring defenders category! The one that is generally priced between £1.10 and £2. His Avg PPG is pretty decent too... his stats stack up!

    If he was playing for a better team than Mainz then he'd be worth a whole lot more.... oh hang on a minute :-)



  • @Agatello said in Why is no one buying Diallo ?:

    Agree on the points above but the main thing to note here is that Diallo is NOT useless... he actually comes into that <1:10 goalscoring defenders category! The one that is generally priced between £1.10 and £2. His Avg PPG is pretty decent too... his stats stack up!

    If he was playing for a better team than Mainz then he'd be worth a whole lot more.... oh hang on a minute :-)

    Wasn't saying he was useless - don't know much about him. Just a general point that players are worth dividend potential - so sell him to us then. What kind a player is he ? any stats to indicate he will win PBs. Suppose the other concern would be would he be a guaranteed starter if he moved



  • @mike778 I completely agree with you, was just explaining that Diallo was actually a decent buy for PB based on his stats. Check him out on Whoscored.

    As much as I love the beautiful game when it comes to FI that goes out of the window and it's all about those stats! :-)



  • Don’t worry agetello you are always ahead of the crowd I bought 400 now he’s worth around a pound as not only baseline scores every 6 games Mainz improving form just hold when the sheep see his baseline will rush in seen it so many times and thank you for your posts always informative and no hard sells



  • @mike778 rises in the value of a player are just as useful/valuable as dividends. people buy players for all sorts of reasons, which lead to a player having a higher price



  • @Agatello Interesting, i agree with you.
    I mean i've only been trading for 2 weeks, and i still have no idea what i'm doing - but i always kind of assume that where money is concerned the market will price things reasonably well at least.
    But i'm starting to think that there are absolutely colossal opportunities here if someone with Diallo's reputation is under priced,. the guy he plays with at the back, Stefan Bell, who's also pretty good now - but lacks the same potential surely, is priced at 0.60p !!!!!!!!!!!!
    So yeah, i think there's huge opportunities, re what i said about Costa and Vitolo in another thread, as well as markets overreacting to injuries or bans or being rested (immobile and dybala now corrected - but Morata isn't). Kimmich, best rightback in the world? was a joke also at £1.16 yesterday morning. I think it's worth going through every single player individually on the index and looking at their prices comparatively.

    Re whoscored.com - I found kimmich was hugely underpriced at £1.16 from whoscored.com. I also did some stats on 100 players from the weekend, and found that a player's weekend whoscored.com ratings had a 0.81 correlation with their performance buzz score. This correlation would've been higher but for the full backs who score lower on whoscored.com than performance buzz. I'm going to try and figure out where the differences come from. I know i could sign up to a Football index blog for £7 a month, but i'd rather do it myself for free !!! Would be nice to create a regression model which can convert whoscored.com data into performance buzz. Has anyone else done anything like this ?

    J



  • @NewUser105497 said in Why is no one buying Diallo ?:

    @Agatello Interesting, i agree with you.
    I mean i've only been trading for 2 weeks, and i still have no idea what i'm doing - but i always kind of assume that where money is concerned the market will price things reasonably well at least.
    But i'm starting to think that there are absolutely colossal opportunities here if someone with Diallo's reputation is under priced,. the guy he plays with at the back, Stefan Bell, who's also pretty good now - but lacks the same potential surely, is priced at 0.60p !!!!!!!!!!!!
    So yeah, i think there's huge opportunities, re what i said about Costa and Vitolo in another thread, as well as markets overreacting to injuries or bans or being rested (immobile and dybala now corrected - but Morata isn't). Kimmich, best rightback in the world? was a joke also at £1.16 yesterday morning. I think it's worth going through every single player individually on the index and looking at their prices comparatively.

    Re whoscored.com - I found kimmich was hugely underpriced at £1.16 from whoscored.com. I also did some stats on 100 players from the weekend, and found that a player's weekend whoscored.com ratings had a 0.81 correlation with their performance buzz score. This correlation would've been higher but for the full backs who score lower on whoscored.com than performance buzz. I'm going to try and figure out where the differences come from. I know i could sign up to a Football index blog for £7 a month, but i'd rather do it myself for free !!! Would be nice to create a regression model which can convert whoscored.com data into performance buzz. Has anyone else done anything like this ?

    J

    That's pretty impressive work mate, I never gave much credence to the whoscored ratings as I wasn't entirely sure how correlated in comparison to the PB scoring matrix. They'd probably need to give some serious notice period to traders but considering how far FI have got into bed with Whoscored I wouldn't be surprised to see the whole scoring system switched to them.

    As you say you've only been trading for a short period so a friendly word of warning - check the graph of an existing player before making a comparison - Stefan Bell probably IPO'd at 60p and had zero interest (I might be wrong) which gives a false benchmark. Whether it's intentional (and crafty) or not FI will benefit from this as new traders will see Milner at £2.31 for example and say "WTF, then 50% of the defenders must be underpriced".

    I didn't start this thread but thought he's star buy today. I've done HOURS of research since the IPO's switched to 50 a day (now 10) and have values spinning around my head like the Matrix. So much so that I can almost get the settled price down to within 10p - I got Guedes wrong by a large chunk as I thought he was worth about 90p to £1 but you can't win them all and I'm happy cos I loaded up on him.

    So back on the case of Diallo, if he stays at Mainz then as a goal scoring defender then he's probably worth about 80p against the rest of the market - within the next 3 years if they win with a clean sheet and he scores the GWG a return of 18p against 80p is pretty impressive in it's own right regardless of growth.

    If he gets a big move to Arsenal who aren't blessed with great defenders he'll probably break £1 mark. If he then starts performing and scoring goals you'll be looking between £1.50 and £2. Yeah there's some "if's" in amongst that lot but ignore the it's a lottery gang and pick out the diamonds!



  • @NewUser105497 You are right there is a lot of irrationality on the index. advise i would give is try an use that too your advantage. you can profit from predictable trader behaviour just as much as you can on football knowledge


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