@ScouseSte said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

Remember that the index is still in its infancy really. This time next year, De Ligt will probably be around the £4 mark, Hazard £7 etc.

I think a lot of users need to remember that this platform is essentially investment-based (growth and income over time) as a opposed to a quick fix.

Ste, I hear you but what you just said, is somewhat of myth, spread largely by people who don't know it's a myth.

Sure, if you open up the current top 100, chances are really high that if you click on a player he's grown but what happened to the players who were in the top 100 this time last year and are now squad players?

There's only 50 players above the £2 barrier on a platform with 2800 players.

John Stones was £1.09 last year, he's 88p now, won the Prem 2 years on the bounce Chiallini was 43p last year, is now 33p after winning the league Rudiger was £1.11 last year, he's 72p now after winning the Europa League Varane was 77p is now 64p, despite winning the World Cup on the back of 4 Champions League wins. Naby Keita was £1.91 last year, is now £1.52 after winning the Champions League Kevin De Bruyn was £2.52 last year is now £2.40, won the treble Thauvin was £1.73 a year ago is now £1.69 a week go he was £1.57 Lukku was £1.70 is currently £1.50 Aubameyang was £1.49 is £1.32 Aguero was £2.06 is now £1.45 after winning the treble Ronaldo was £4.43 is £2.66 Pjanic was £1.33 is £1.20 after winning the league with Juve Milinkovic-Savic was £1.37 is £.1.29

You could point to any of these players and give a reason for their individual decline, be it age, rape, injury, position, etc but the point is, there's a lot of players who decline... many including some of the best players in the world.

Let's look at some big transfers from last year...

N'Zonzi won the World Cup and moved to Roma, was 45p is 30p Shaqiri moved to Liverpool was 83p, peaked at 1.04 is currently 56p Mahrez moved to Man City was £1.15 dropped to 65p is 90p Sokratis moved to Arsenal, was 45p is 29p Lenglet was 63p moved to Barcelona is 52p Jean Seri was 73p moved to Fulham is 53p Odriozola was 64p moved to Madrid is 44p (worth researching) Lucas Torreira was peaked at £1.30 joined Arsenal is 80p Nainggolan was 61p moved to Inter, dropped as low as 22p is 31p De Vrij was 65p moved to Inter, bottomed out at 30p is 41p Arthur moved to Barcelona, peaked at £1.12 is currently 92p Fabinho peaked at 93p moved to Liverool won the Champions League, dropped to 49p is currently 57p Emre Can, moved to Juventus, peaked at 55p, is 48p Fred, moved to Man Utd, peaked at £1.06 is currently 62p Thomas Lemar was peaked at 95p is 82p Higuain moved to Chelsea, peaked at £1.47 is now 72p Courtois peaked at 62p crashed to 30p is now 40p Jorginho peaked at £1.34, crashed to 87p is £1.02 Alisson hit at £1.01 transfering to Liverpool, had the year of his career, is 75p

Now look... some of the names on this list are arguably incredibly hot prospects and might one day recover and even eclipse their peak from last year... so I'm not saying it's impossible for that to happen.

BUT... the drop on some of these players was massive. Looking at everyones curve, Fred seems like he's worth a punt... (Tip of the day.... based solely on the curve pattern across these players, so take that for what it's worth)

Now, we could say, well De Ligt has already dropped from his peak, so he's probably going to be this price next year. The evidence suggests that might be the case but what is clear... is that everyone of those transfers dropped massively before rising back up to their current price, which still isn't the same as it was last year. So... getting rid now... and buying back in 4 months time, seems like the best bet. Esecially given that the average bet is held for days never mind a year.