Gareth Bale - Time to buy or bale out?



  • I have spent more time over the weekend considering Gareth Bale than any other player on the market. I have come to the conclusion that it is far more likely he moves on than stays, however I do believe the move will be very late in the transfer window as it seems both club and player are playing a very high stakes game of chicken!

    My reasoning is that Madrid cannot afford due to financial fair play to have his wages on the books and surly he will want to play football rather than sit on the bench every week. The obvious destinations are PSG especially if Neymar goes to Barcelona or a subsidised loan to Tottenham or Man U.

    My biggest issue is how low can his price go before any positive news comes out which may be weeks away.

    I am hoping to top up with 1500 futures but can he drop to say £2.15 in the next few weeks a move to either PSG or the English premier league could see a jump to circa £4 within days of the news.



  • Down nearly 30% from his peak. BUY BUY BUY. Yes I do hold.



  • I just dumped him this morning, I came to the conclusion that other traders just don't want to buy him so no point in holding, if some concrete news comes out I will go back in.
    The amount of idiots spouting china has just put people off.
    I did sell half my shares to market when he spiked at 3.20 ish a while back so I’m about even after IS.



  • @Fletch I’m personally staying well clear of Gareth Bale. Main reason due to the fact that I don’t think anyone can afford his wages or transfer fee he would command. I don’t think Neymar will move, so a front 3 of Neymar, bale and Mbappé just wouldn’t make sense. Doubt spurs could afford a subsidised loan/want him back, and Utd looks like they’re after younger players



  • Deffinately buy. No way is he going to be sat on the bench for the next season. As soon as he's playing an increase is garunteed.



  • @Tom77 good point. Doesn’t seem like many people actually want to buy him. You’d be stuck on sell queue for quite a while I’d imagine if you’re trying to get rid of him



  • @Andy said in Gareth Bale - Time to buy or bale out?:

    @Tom77 good point. Doesn’t seem like many people actually want to buy him. You’d be stuck on sell queue for quite a while I’d imagine if you’re trying to get rid of him

    Just did for 4 days to no avail, as much as I think there will be something in it you have to think what everyone else is doing and at the moment no one likes bale.



  • I think the main issue is that a huge proportion of his holders are waiting to get out at the next value spike - Any transfer news will not provide the levels of capital appreciation that you would typically expect.



  • @Tom77 Definitely. Can't see anyone wanting to hold futures in Bale unless he actually moves back to the premier league



  • @Andy said in Gareth Bale - Time to buy or bale out?:

    @Fletch I’m personally staying well clear of Gareth Bale. Main reason due to the fact that I don’t think anyone can afford his wages or transfer fee he would command. I don’t think Neymar will move, so a front 3 of Neymar, bale and Mbappé just wouldn’t make sense. Doubt spurs could afford a subsidised loan/want him back, and Utd looks like they’re after younger players

    He has 3 years left on his 600,000 per week deal with Madrid. So, if he "plays golf for 3 years", that's 93m and change Madrid have to pay him and then he leaves for free. He's not going to get anyone to take over 600,000 per week.

    SO....

    One Possible Solution

    • Madrid pay Bale 43million to leave, saving themselves 50 million on his contract

    • Bale signs a 5 year deal with Man Utd, for 300k per week. (78m)

    • Man Utd, don't have a transfer fee to pay, so his wages are easier to swallow.

    • Madrid get Man Utd to knock down Pogba's asking price from £160m to £120m, given that they are receiving a bargain Bale.

    Madrid end up, being able to feel like they aren't out of pocket on Bale. Man Utd, get the 120m they really want for Pogba. Bale goes from earning 93m to 128m. Man Utd pay Bale, the wages they were gonna have to pay Pogba and they get to sell Bale in 2 years.

    Good bit of business for everyone involved.

    Swap out Pogba for Erikson at Spurs, albeit, he's probably not on Pogba's wage.



  • I'm going down with this ship if I have to. No way are Real going to let him sit around doing nothing on that wage. At the moment everyone is playing hardball, especially Bale, but this absolutely stinks of a desperate last minute deadline day transfer. I can really see him at Spurs next season, Levy will pick him up on a bargain knowing Real are desperate and he will be worth millions in commercial revenue.



  • @Dan-The-Man Never say never, but I highly doubt that Utd will go in for Bale. Look at the signings they've made so far: Wan-Bissaka and Daniel James, the complete opposite player in terms of hunger, youth and drive to succeed at the club which I believe Bale doesn't have. Why would Utd sign a 30yr old with a questionable injury record at best? It just doesn't make sense with signings they've made already.



  • @Andy said in Gareth Bale - Time to buy or bale out?:

    @Dan-The-Man Never say never, but I highly doubt that Utd will go in for Bale. Look at the signings they've made so far: Wan-Bissaka and Daniel James, the complete opposite player in terms of hunger, youth and drive to succeed at the club which I believe Bale doesn't have. Why would Utd sign a 30yr old with a questionable injury record at best? It just doesn't make sense with signings they've made already.

    I don't know if he'd be interested in United or not given their decline but they aren't in a great place financially and if they wanted to sign a big player or two, they'd need to buy in some cheaper youngsters to pad the squad, which is what United have done so far. So I wouldn't say their transfer activity rules out Bale and he did buy a house in Manchester a few months back.

    Worth remembering, United aren't just a football club, they're a giant business who make a large portion of their money from sponsorship and TV rights. If Pogba leaves, United won't have a star player. How much could that cost them in the long run? Bare in mind the story this morning is they are a BILLION down from last season, given the loss of sponsorship, TV rights, ticket sales.

    https://talksport.com/football/566798/manchester-united-worth-champions-league/



  • @Dan-The-Man This is where we differ then. As a united fan, we can clearly see what united are going for in terms of their transfer buys, they’re not going for big stars. Hence Ole signing young British players. Signing the stars has failed in the past



  • The betting odds aren't always accurate on transfers but they are not looking good for Bale's price on the Index currently:

    0_1562060248682_upload-d1f4a1ea-7333-441b-ae32-308d26497728



  • @Andy

    If I were trying to get Madrid to effectively release Bale, I'd play hardball in the press too. Then if it never came off, I wouldn't look like I missed out and if it worked, I'd get Bale at knocked down price. Win-Win.

    Ole found his success with a bunch of academy players and he treats McTominay like the absolute future of the club. So you might be right that he'd sooner go for young players... Time will tell.



  • Thought today was showdown talks day?

    Silence is deafening...

    Maybe long siesta?



  • I’m not Baleing out just yet. Bought some on saturday - bout £1 off peak price. Looks like he’s going with Real pre season by the looks of their media team so may get gametime.



  • Odds look really bad for his price after the summer now, Madrid 4/9 China 2/1, United 16/1 and then longshots between 25 and 66. I got on when United went evens, it was worth the gamble but it backfired and I sold for a loss.



  • It just seems too quite for me.

    I reckon this will be a ‘he has moved’ one. Rather than built up rumour.

    Just too quite.


Log in to reply