Sell or Keep...advice please !



  • Hey Guys

    Need some help here....i have been sitting on a big loss in my portfolio since the Coutinho transfer went through.

    95 x £4.66 cost....dropped down to £3.55 (CURRENT loss of £105.45)....the question is do I keep him in a hope that his price will rise or is it just time to take the hit??

    What would you do if you were in this position?

    Cheers

    AndyP



  • Hold and wait for PB and MB. He'll bounce. It depends if he's tied up all your capital?



  • Well basically I have a current profit of £384 and that includes this loss...



  • I've got the same dilemma as I brought at 4.60.... I don't think we'll get the £4's anytime soon and could be at a further loss before the WC unless he has a couple of worldys for Barca but easier said than done when you have Messi & Suarez grabbing all the headlines (and goals).

    I have a stance 'never to sell at a loss' but might have to with this one unless he gets an unlikely loan move back to Liverpool should he fail like Delofeau but I can't really see that happening?

    His saving grace might be the WC and I'm hoping folk will lump on all the best nations stars but if come August his price is still down I might just quit before I get any further behind?? The worry is by then he could be at 2.50 or less???



  • How many futures do you hold in him?



  • I don't have many so it won't hit me near as hard as it hit you if he falls further although I'm at the stage now even with the profit made on dividends i'm still at a loss so its probably one of my worst investment decisions to keep him... If I was 'in profit' I would most certainly sell but because i'm not i'm a sucker for chasing that dragon... Depending on your portfolio though you could split (ie sell half your shares in him) hold (for hoped improvement) or just chuck the money in to the next best player eyeing a summer move (like Lemar) which now the hype is over for Coutinho is what I would probably suggest to do??



  • Easier said than done Gents BUT you need to remain emotionless on this, forget about what you paid and come back in from an angle of what you actually think he is worth.

    Look at similar players, get a feel for what dividends you expect him to reap then make a judgement - if you owned none at this moment would you buy him at his current price?

    If you think he's too much cut your losses and if you think he's still cheap then keep him. Due to FI's incredible growth I think most of the index are still cheap (yeah there's plenty of dross but they're easy to eliminate) so as mentioned above you should probably keep him unless you think there's a faster train to jump on (which of course there probably is and in there lies the magic ;-) )



  • What can he go down maybe another £1 at rock bottom? What can he go up on World Cup and more people joining? Maybe £5 /6 at top over a couple of years? With World Cup and new members how many buzz wins over a couple of years can he get? I think myself you need to monitor the situation if you see a better buy flip if your money’s invested better elsewhere. Depends on the amount of capital your willing to risk if brave leave and invest further to offset the loss I am on profit by fact I invested allot then pulled back I find a good kickstart is increasing investments personally if I had PC I’d wait till I thought he was rock bottom then probably buy a few hundred shares nearer World Cup to top up and make less loss to get back but you need to judge right where rick bottom is... in thiory if you bought 500 shares you’d only need a 21p ruse to break even and you’d be pocketing your buzz wins for free



  • Emotion aside I would say he's worth around 2.80 - I couldn't see him dropping below 2.50 (he's better than that) but I also can't see him getting up to 4.00 unless he's scoring goals every week and Barca are dominating like they used to which at the moment they are not...

    These markets move in mysterious ways though and he's always just one hat-trick or one move away from folk lumping back on... as mentioned before Deulofeau moves to Watford and spikes at 0.97 when at Barca he averaged under 0.80.... I wouldn't have touched him with a barge pool when I heard he was moving back to England from one of the greatest clubs on earth but i'm learning!!!! Coutinho to Stoke next summer could see his value rise again?????



  • @dannypea said in Sell or Keep...advice please !:

    Emotion aside I would say he's worth around 2.80 - I couldn't see him dropping below 2.50 (he's better than that) but I also can't see him getting up to 4.00 unless he's scoring goals every week and Barca are dominating like they used to which at the moment they are not...

    These markets move in mysterious ways though and he's always just one hat-trick or one move away from folk lumping back on... as mentioned before Deulofeau moves to Watford and spikes at 0.97 when at Barca he averaged under 0.80.... I wouldn't have touched him with a barge pool when I heard he was moving back to England from one of the greatest clubs on earth but i'm learning!!!! Coutinho to Stoke next summer could see his value rise again?????

    At Watford remember it’s not a huge club but on FI there’s our good friend HappyH investment and the chance to play with Chalobah hence the spike :-D



  • @Chicken-Badge

    Well said. Re: Chalobah, an inspiring player (when fit) and will play alongside other players with strong talent that disappointsibgly ,from a Watford perspective ,will get sold / return to bigger clubs. Richarlison / Chelsea + Doucoure / Tottenham + Chalobah (give it a year :Barcelona....
    Coutinho - A sell for me, MB limited now and PB challengesd with Messi in same team,.,.



  • @Happy-Hornet

    This white on white typing is difficult ...



  • While seeing such a large red is disheartening you have to look at the price now and whether you think he'll return dividends and capital appreciation to justify the hold. The way the market is at the moment the biggest consideration has to be the opportunity cost of holding. Players with European games have been on the rise for days and there are so many opportunities around. With the money you net from Coutinho are you confident in your ability to earn back the commission and spread if you go down the instant sell route? I know I would be. I sold 35 Hazards this morning... Crazy I know. But I sold at MV which was only 2p less than now, plus the 11p divs and 11p commission is a total of £8.40 lost. But with the net returns of £183ish I bought 25 morata at £2.65 and 200 De Sciglio at £0.59. Both are long gone for a net return of £200. Even taking into account 11p of divs I could buy 36.5 hazards now and I think the trades actioned were pretty low risk. I won't buy any hazards of course because he's old news now. I'm all set for tomorrow and then Wednesday is the big one.. Lo Celso might be the one, who knows. But my point is that recently I've begun to understand what people have been saying all along - it doesn't matter what you bought them for, they are the price they are and it's either worth holding or it's not. Atm I am trading my ass off and reinvesting the profits in my long term holds because the market is booming


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