Paul Pogba - Hold or Flog? What are you doing?



  • @FIGenesis said in Paul Pogba - Hold or Flog? What are you doing?:

    Hello all. Final pump of my latest blog post on how I have tackled the Paul Pogba conundrum on the Index. I am holding and holding until next summer and probably beyond. Come and see why! Do you agree? Cheers.

    https://fifrenchtalent.com/2019/07/08/the-pogba-perplex/

    I agree with your article that he'll stay this coming season and leave the next. He's minus £1.12p in the red for me but keeps winning dividends (402 shares). He's in a similar position to my Neymar/Hazard and Messi holds who are all massively in the red for me with a similar amount of shares in them. I'll wait to the new season and see how Pogba goes in regard to his price. If his price remains in the red, I don't think he's worth holding on, in spite of the dividends. They would have come at too great a cost.



  • @ScouseSte and the spread works massively in holders favour - lets say he starts dropping today, but the time his buy price is £6.50 his IS would be around £5.80. And at that point people start thinking it's just more effective to hold. So his price stabilises and then non-holders think … that's the exodus over and start buying for divs... then you get what we are having now - daily volatility up 10p down 15p up 10p down 5p and over a week very little movement.

    We see it with injuries too - if you are first to IS you generally can buy back in for cheaper. But very quickly after first wave the price goes up and people lose out. with CHO he plummeted but within a few hours wasn't there a thread questioning why people were buying.. and by end of the day he'd recovered well above the original IS price.

    The other day when Pogba started crashing, first i saw, so first chance to IS was at £6.80 and the IS value was silly like £6.22 - he only went down to £6.70 before stabilising and rising again.



  • Holding. If he stays great. If he leaves i expect a crash but then a recovery over time to close to what he is now.



  • @ScouseSte it's all relative. Media will retain some interest, just nowhere near as much. Also he won't be on pens at Real or Juve either so less PB potential. Expect proportionate price drop.



  • @Hotspur said in Paul Pogba - Hold or Flog? What are you doing?:

    @ScouseSte it's all relative. Media will retain some interest, just nowhere near as much. Also he won't be on pens at Real or Juve either so less PB potential. Expect proportionate price drop.

    Pens are irrelevant mate.

    NO trader has bought Pogba for PB divs...they are just a sideline bonus if he gets any



  • @ScouseSte said in Paul Pogba - Hold or Flog? What are you doing?:

    @Hotspur said in Paul Pogba - Hold or Flog? What are you doing?:

    NO trader has bought Pogba for PB divs...they are just a sideline bonus if he gets any

    Hmm. Noone? Why did he get some decent rises last season during his PB winning performances then?

    And why the drops when playing badly, even though still winning MB? Agree he is MB player but PB influence can't be discounted entirely.



  • @Hotspur yea I know I was just being flippant. But generally, Pogba is an asset based primarily on MB.



  • @ScouseSte yeah, no disputing that!



  • @ScouseSte Agree you mainly get on for MB but 19th on the all time PB returns list isn't too shabby. That's with years of playing under bad for PB Mourinho football too, If that had been a PB friendly team he'd be top 10, PB friendly team with pens top 5.



  • Hold, always hold, hold hold hold even if he goes abroad. MB Magnet, Neymar plays abroad and still gets MB, I reckon Pog will do well even if he goes. I've held him for a year or so and will continue too.



  • 0_1562695583520_image.jpeg

    Just now

    People actually buying in big at this point. There is confidence in Pogba by the looks of things 😎



  • There will be solksjaer press conferences during the tour with the first at 5am tomorrow, I wonder who he'll be getting asked about in every one of them.



  • @Harmonica You say you have held him for a year or so?

    Christ knows what price that was but if anyone got in then good luck to you.

    You can probably take a good couple of pound or so drop in his price and you still you would be in profit.

    It's the people that have bought in last couple of months that need to do the worrying.

    Was he an mb magnet last time he was abroad? maybe but sure Juve wasn't that successful.

    Time will tell I suppose.



  • Holding.
    Slightly down on his price but more than made up on his dividends.
    He’s winning it today again...



  • @ScouseSte said in Paul Pogba - Hold or Flog? What are you doing?:

    @Hotspur said in Paul Pogba - Hold or Flog? What are you doing?:

    @Vespasian32 brave stuff. I'd expect the drop to be huge if he moves abroad. Interesting times.

    I think these "huge drops" people predict regarding top players leaving the Premier league are completely wild and exaggerated.

    If Pogba leaves, he doesn't DIE! Your 3 year bet is still very much active and is absolutely still going to earn you divs. The British media are still going to take a keen interest in how Pogba fares, wherever he ends up.

    The only way Pogbas price will crash is if he goes to China or USA. Apart from that, I don't see him dropping all that much. The fearful ones have mostly already sold up on Pogba.

    Spot on.



  • Holding until my bet is up. I don’t care if he leaves or stays. I’d obviously prefer he stayed but whatever happens I’ll be holding ✌🏼



  • @FIGenesis Great analysis. Sold my Pogba during the decline of ManU on the pitch towards the end of the season. After seeing all those MB £'s being won by him and reading your synopsis I bought back in yesterday. I see it as a 50/50, stay or go bet. 3p MB and 8p CA overnight night. Hopefully it continues otherwise it's going to be a lean Christmas round here.



  • @LittleFish another 3p today I'd expect too ;)



  • @ScouseSte looks that way. Olly blaming Pogba agent, so hopefully he's building bridges with Pog.



  • Still too risky a hold for me. Not 'needing to sell' is not the same thing as 'not for sale'. In any negotiation you have to play hard ball at the start, but their stance doesn't even seem that hard.


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