Cristian Pavon

  • I'm just after people's opinion why his price is consistently dropping??

    I bought him at 89p with the rationale that there's a strong chance he'll be in Argentina's starting 11 at the world cup & an equally strong chance that he'll move to a big European club in the summer.

    He also plays in a position (that when eligible) should suit good player buzz scores.

    So at 89p I'd say he was well underpriced.

    What am I missing???

  • @NewUser100355 well the fact he plays for.boca juniors means no PB chance and 89p means no MB it's all hope and rumours atm

  • Bought myself players who are doing nothing with great potential and the reality is that money is dead sitting there has pointed out he’s at BJ and at World Cup the time to buy would be if he has a great World Cup and it’s July and he’s off to man untd till that or any solid devalopements happen he’s a bad investment I see same with V jr why everyone went so crazy is beyond me maybe I’m missing something?

  • @Chicken-Badge

    I agree picking players now for WC is a strategy but does leave you in limbo between now and say May when the frenzy will come. My tip, is the same as many, bit of MB player investment (Pogba & Salah), PB players mid-price range (I appear to struggle here) and go with quality for young players, with big future and just coming back from injury and will more than likely make a world cup squad for one of the big teams or England... someone like Chalobah...

  • @Happy-Hornet

    Meaning Pavin a potential buy in May and hope he has a great WC and secured transfer to Europe.. Is he good enough to be a tier 1 player like Aguero / Hazard and you have a gem or even tier 2 / 3 Zaha(Richarlison where you will still see a decent bump. But no transfer means no fun...

  • I'm not usually one for jumping on the IPO launch bangwagon but in Pavon I wanted to get in early because I do see an awful lot of potential and a big move perhaps after a successful WC. It is all a stab in the dark though but he's pretty low risk - in reality I could have waited until April/May as I think once the national squads are announced his stock will rise (or fall should he not make the cut)....

    Think the effect on his price is down to a few things, no PB or MB opps is definitely a factor, not many people know anything about Argentinian football either which I think is sad as it's probably the toughest most underrated league in the world.

    My hope his for that 'Roberto Baggio moment' when Pavon comes off the bench late on against Iceland with the score at 0-0 and nets a winner that lifts his pedigree to another level. He's already rumoured with big moves so if he continues to star with Boca i'm sure it won't be long and his price should at least double within the next three years which makes him a decent long term hold if that's your strategy.

  • @Happy-Hornet you need my data set mate it's all about the mid range pb players;). Danny parejo is a good place to start though

  • The thing to remember with players like Pavon / Vinicius / Embalo is the opportunity cost. That 89p purchase may well prove a bargain in two years time, but whilst he can't win a PB or MB its not working for you in the present. Putting those 89p into Reus would have netted you lots of PB yesterday, with the chance to win more in Europa, Bundesliga, and World Cup. Even if you then bought Pavon at £1.20 in July, your capital increase and dividends will have worked harder for you and made more money than just sitting on a non-eligible player in the meantime.

    I think that's why traders are starting to move off players in South America and smaller European leagues.

  • nothing wrong with diversifying your portfolio though??? PB's aren't guaranteed for anyone (unless you buy at the top end) so whilst having a strong MB/PB strategy in place is essential, it is not the only way to make money and growth potential can be just as exciting if you are willing to play the 'longer' game.

    I do think i've gone a bit too early with Pavon though as you mention I could be making money on 'active' players but I don't really see anyone that IPO's under 1.00 a very big risk to take so nothing ventured nothing gained.

  • @dannypea Yep very true. If it pays off, it will pay off handsomely. After all, a jump for Pavon from £1 to £2 will offer you the same overall capital growth as Neymar will from £10.50 to £21. And at this stage the former seems more likely...

  • Thanks for the responses guys.

    I bought him as an IPO, fully expecting him to rise to at least £1 plus. I used Hirving Lozano as a comparison. Similar age, playing position & potential & both currently at clubs ineligible for PB.

    Oh well...... you live and learn. I'm not concerned long term, but just wanted some experienced traders opinions regarding his price drop.

    Thanks again

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