Dump or hold



  • So, these are my main losers at the mo: Lukaku, Coutinho, Barkley, Ozil, Dzeko, Aubameyang, Sanchez

    I'm trying to decide who to hold and who to cut loose. They're mostly losing positions due to poor timing.

    Any thoughts are appreciated ...



  • @but-then-again I'm holding ozil and coutinho based on world cup hopes. You could argue Lukaku is as low as he will go for a while. I think Sanchez still has a big drop in him so maybe get out of that one



  • Ok a spurs fan here bought Ozil last year at 2-50p sold way too fast he went up to £4 missed the boat... was stuck with Eriksen at £2.08 long enough! Not working out why Ozil was worth twice as much unrealistic now eriksen £2.50ish Ozil £2.64 Germany better than Denmark in WC spurs in CL I hold both and I feel the prices are inline and both capable of PB hence why I have these two world class playmakers. I wouldn’t sell myself Ozil has I’ve just bought in at £2.64ish hoping on some Buzz Love!!! And Arsenal can’t do much worse surely but if they do being a spurs fan it’s probably best possible loss but I expect Ozil to play with passion for Germany more than he does for Arsenal!! I’ve just bought 50ish Ozil I’ve my FI trader hat on here... not my chicken badge!!



  • @Noirx4 said in Dump or hold:

    @but-then-again I'm holding ozil and coutinho based on world cup hopes. You could argue Lukaku is as low as he will go for a while. I think Sanchez still has a big drop in him so maybe get out of that one

    Thoughts on Dzeko? I bought in x 50 at 1-14 about a 10p red board!!! X 50 £5!!! Would of been better adding to my 50 Ciro wasn’t thinking at the time... I’d be happy to get out of this one but not sure where it’s going??? Your take?



  • @Chicken-Badge

    He’s my worst holding at mo



  • @but-then-again don't mean to sound harsh here and I'm by no means trying to rub it in but this is a prime example of why not to buy these sort of price players. The only understandable exceptions are kane and neymar in my eyes because they are guaranteed regular buzz wins but I wouldn't buy those guys either because of their extortionate price tags.

    Unless they keep winning buzz points then their prices aren't likely to rise unless they get transfer attention.

    Performance buzz to me is pointless unless it's consistent because paying £250+ for a player who might win 12 quid back once or twice in 3 years is a total waste of time.

    I might sound like a broken record to some people on here but a far better tactic is to identify the up and coming players who get regular game time who are cheap and likely to rise significantly in value over 3 years and stock up on them big time.

    You will probably have to be patient but I am certain that I will make more money over 3 years with this tactic than trying to predict who might win the buzz every now and again.



  • Dunno about that @Stevo I've made loads of pb and mb money and huge boost in value too. Don't think scraping around for talent always pays. But still multiple ways to make money here that's the joy of the index



  • @Chicken-Badge hate to be negative against dzeko as I love him as a player but I'm guessing you got him when there was a chance he was heading to Chelsea. He's coming to end of his career and not lighting world on fire at roma. Time to say goodbye I'd guess.



  • @but-then-again said in Dump or hold:

    Lukaku, Coutinho, Barkley, Ozil, Dzeko, Aubameyang, Sanchez

    I would always suggest buy low sell high and have patience when it comes to managing your portfolio.... How long have you got left before you need to cash in on these futures??? 1/2 years??? What is your strategy? Your gameplan? Are you at a small loss or big loss with any of the above?? If you need the cashflow to trade elsewhere than maybe cash out on all you can but if you don't need the cashflow then why rush???

    For my 2p I would keep Lukaku, Sanchez, Aubamayeng, Dzeko mid/long term (ie review in 6 months - 1 year)... Possibly look at getting rid of Barkley (unless you feel he has longer term potential (ie growth within 3 years) and maybe look at getting rid of Ozil and Coutinho after the WC?



  • @Noirx4 I agree there are different ways to make money but when you say loads, how much are we talking? I understand if you don't want to divulge that info but as I say buying someone like Sanchez for example was great in the short term and you may have won £120 from spending £500 but that to me isn't loads.

    I'm meaning buying 1000 x certain selected players. They obviously won't all work out but if they rise £1 in value that's £1000 you've made from one player. Theres still that chance in 12 months they could be raking in performance buzz as well.

    It really only takes a bit of researxh in my opinion.



  • @Stevo yes but £1 rise in what time window it feels like We're comparing apples with pears here. But I've made around 3% return this month on MB and PB dividends. Not a Sanchez in sight. Plus another 5% this month on growth.



  • Would be tempted to dump those not in the world cup.



  • @Noirx4 said in Dump or hold:

    @Chicken-Badge hate to be negative against dzeko as I love him as a player but I'm guessing you got him when there was a chance he was heading to Chelsea. He's coming to end of his career and not lighting world on fire at roma. Time to say goodbye I'd guess.

    No I can’t justify getting him at all and was after window closed. Didn’t do my research. Concentration lapse that even Benoit Assou Eketto would be ashamed of but not has epic a one has buying in Zlatan at £4.84 and watching 80% drop on great scheme of mess ups we’re talking maybe £6 worth so could be worse



  • Does it matter if you're holding at a loss? I'm firmly in the camp of NO. I will happily sell a player at a loss if I feel his buy (or sell, on rare occasions) price isn't value. The question in my mind is, will this £x in Neymar return more than £x in Messi? Of course the answer is fuck yes it will and I move on with my day. I sold 30 Messi today and bought 120 muller... Ones up 2p and ones up 28p, at a quarter of the price. I could flog Muller now and buy my Messi back with change. You'll even show no loss if that's important to you 😉 opportunity costs will outweigh diminution in value all day long



  • @Pierrey2129 said in Dump or hold:

    Does it matter if you're holding at a loss? I'm firmly in the camp of NO. I will happily sell a player at a loss if I feel his buy (or sell, on rare occasions) price isn't value. The question in my mind is, will this £x in Neymar return more than £x in Messi? Of course the answer is fuck yes it will and I move on with my day. I sold 30 Messi today and bought 120 muller... Ones up 2p and ones up 28p, at a quarter of the price. I could flog Muller now and buy my Messi back with change. You'll even show no loss if that's important to you 😉 opportunity costs will outweigh diminution in value all day long

    If a player is likely to gain in value then keep or buy, if likely to drop then sell - like you say your current profit/loss on them is irrelevant. Money will move out of players like Dzeko and PEA to world cup players so these are likely to fall and hence should be considered to sell.



  • @mike778 I agree with this almost completely. The only thing I'd add is, even if your hold is increasing it still may not be the best use of your money. In fact, if you feel it's not going to return as much as another player, this is the best time to sell as you can sell to market easily. It's all about %



  • @Pierrey2129 spot on! That’s why I cannot relate to those who tie their £s into players outside of the buzz leagues in the hope that they’ll move in the next window or worse still buying gks in the hope that they get their own dividend.

    Make your money work harder for you and invest in the now not the maybe in the future, if that player from the Dutch or Portuguese league does move to the Prem then you’ll have more than enough profit from the ‘here and now’ to get in then (even at the higher price-but have a fresh 3 year hold) and have made a hell of a lot more profit doing so.



  • @78pJesus that's an interesting comment from the guy who bought Gabriel Jesus when he played in Brazil....

    I reckon it's a good idea to have a mixture of here and now players and looking to the future players.

    I just believe that other than for a handful of players performance buzz is too hard to predict.



  • @Stevo no disrespect to those who believe in planning for the future by investing in the many Ajax kids who are bound to leave at different intervals within the next 10 years, but buying Gabby Jesus when you know the deal is already done weeks before it’s announced is worlds apart from sticking a few grand into the hope that he would have moved soon.

    I have a neighbour from City so I knew it was gospel, otherwise I would’ve invested elsewhere rather than letting the capital stagnate for months.



  • I often sell a player that is showing a lot of profit, that I know in a week's time will cost me more, so I can get on another player that I think will give a better return. There's not many players that I hold with a long term view and most of them are in the £3+ bracket. Everyone is different and I won't say one way is better than another, but I back myself to make more in a year on established players than I would on a youth player at Ajax. Even someone like Cutrone is getting on my nerves as I know he'll be a huge player but every few days I look at what he's done for me and think my money would be better used elsewhere. If I sell him and the next week he rockets I won't even give it a second thought because there's always opportunities and I made a decision that was right at the time


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to Football Index Forum was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.