Henderson vs Neymar



  • This might surprise you... but I think Henderson is a significantly better investment than Neymar.

    The England international, has a lot of great things going for him. He's the Liverpool captain/England starter* at a time where both teams are on fire. He's just received a boost from the adjustments to the PB index and he's one of the few players who might benefit from MB being opened up to the whole market. During the Nations League he spiked (predictably) and we're all aware that the Euro's is a big market driver... and that Neymar being a Brazilian won't be taking part.

    I know people will say it's stupid to even compare the two... but the results might surprise you.

    Comparison
    6 months ago today, if you bought £1,000 worth of Jordan Henderson and £1,000 worth of Neymar, you'd have picked up:

    3448 Henderson at 29p
    149 Neymar at £6.71

    Let's look at how the last 6 months have treat those investments.

    Capital Appreciation
    Neymar has grown 13p, Henderson has grown 24p

    • 149 Neymar x 13p Increase = £19.37, Capital Appreciation
    • 3448 Henderson x 24p increase = £827.52, Capital Appreciation

    Dividends
    I don't have the tools to look at the last 6 months of dividends for them both, so instead, I'll use the data on FootyIndexScout for the 2018/19 season.

    Neymar (coincidently) picked up £1.49 worth of divs last season, where as Henderson picked up just 5p worth of divs last season.

    • 149 Neymar x £1.49 Divs = £222.01
    • 3448 Henderson x £0.05 Divs = £172.40

    Total 6 Month Growth Comparison

    • Neymar: £222.01 Divs + £19.37 CA = £241.38
    • Henderson: £172.40 Divs + £827.52 CA = £999.92

    The Results
    6 months ago today if you had purchased £1000 worth of Henderson and £1000 worth of Neymar. Henderson would have bagged you £758.54 more than Neymar.... just over 4x more money.

    Conclusion
    I'm not saying Neymar won't win you money but the numbers speak for themselves and the market drivers are in Hendersons favour. My money is on Henderson. (obviously)



  • @Dan-The-Man give it a rest mate, did you need to start a new thread for this when you've been banging on about it on the other thread?

    Or are you just hoping people see this who haven't seen the other valid points that were made against you on the other thread?



  • I have just downvoted this thread as there is absolutely no need to post the same thing in more than 1 thread - also why not choose a date 3 years ago to compare there returns if bought then - I believe a completely different answer would emerge!!



  • As mentioned in the other thread, the 6-month comparison is somewhat tenuous as Henderson was going through arguably the defining moment in his career at a time when Neymar was injured or recovering from injury, AND come to think of it, the subject of a rape investigation which crashed his price.

    If you had picked the 6 months prior, then you would have seen Henderson's price steadily falling while Neymar's price absolutely rocketed. There were very specific circumstances in the most recent 6 months that contributed towards both players prices.

    If you think these trends are going to continue, then of course all power to you to back Henderson over Neymar, but i think your analysis is incomplete.



  • As I said in the other thread you have just taken the data that works in your favour to try and prove a point. As mentioned above your analysis is incomplete if you want to back Henderson then so be it but you don't need to consistently pump him on many different threads for your own personal gain.



  • @Fletch

    I created the different thread because people tend to get pissy if there's too much discussion of one player in a thread about another player.

    Also, because it's potentially surprising info, worth sharing that would have been lost in that Neymar thread to anyone who has no interest in Neymar but some interest in Henderson.

    There were very specific circumstances in the most recent 6 months that contributed towards both players prices.

    Of course... and there's very specific circumstances over the next 12 months that will see Henderson achieve impressive growth. The Euro's isn't going to improve Neymar's price but it will improve Hendersons. Opening up MB to the Squad Players, won't increase Neymar's chance of MB but it will increase Hendersons.

    What market drivers does Neymar have? A move to Barcelona where he competes directly with Messi?



  • @Dan-The-Man Aren't all your points valid to any English midfielder who someone thinks will go to the Euro's? So please just give it a rest about Henderson, it's the most boring player to be harping on about



  • @Dan-The-Man

    Being Neymar is Neymar's market driver, and it has historically (aside from the 6 months we're looking at and which others have pointed out were probably the worst 6 months Neymar has had since FI started due to a variety of negative market drivers) been more than enough to better the market drivers of virtually every other player on the index



  • @Dan-The-Man have you taken into account selling those 3448 shares though? That would take some shifting and your time would need to be right as you will be dropping the price as you sell unless you do it in dribs and drabs again very hard to do. I get your point and its also worth noting people stress out so much more holding the big boys 🤣 but Neymar is a dividend earner, henderson isnt and dividends excite people. Holders will get bored waiting for that one good game and even at Euros you have to time getting out right as there is more lucrative english players that will get the stories, goals etc..... Kane, Sterling, Sancho, Rashford hell even Deli Ali.
    Also worth noting for Euros, Media will be open up to all players yes but on game days its 1 media place and that will be hard to win for Henderson.



  • @ChazFI123 said in Henderson vs Neymar:

    @Dan-The-Man Aren't all your points valid to any English midfielder who someone thinks will go to the Euro's?

    Sure. For the Nations League, Dier saw a similar kind of rise as Henderson. Aren't you basically making my point for me?

    As for him being boring... 89% increase in 6 months is not boring!



  • @Specksynder

    OK, so you think we should look at longer periods of time. Show me the data on the last year if you like.

    One of the main points here is that there's significantly diminishing returns. The more expensive a player, the more they have to earn and right now, Neymar has to earn crazy amounts of money to move the needle.



  • @Dan-The-Man Neymar's market drivers are his huge MB appeal, which is likely to increase if he joins one of the top two La Liga clubs, plus his historic PB record, which is highly impressive. Whether his PB will be affected badly by playing with Messi is a judgement call, and my view is that it won't be affected nearly as much as many traders seem to think, if at all.

    Your view that Henderson is likely to benefit significantly from MB being opened up is also a judgement call - and one i don't particularly agree with. How many people are regularly writing stories about Jordan Henderson, even during the biggest and most significant moments of his career? During the Euros the focus will be on Sancho, Sterling, Kane and Rashford, just as it was during the internationals in the spring and the Nations League. Even if Henderson has some great performances, i can't see the media suddenly fawning over him as there are many more interesting players to write about, in terms of driving traffic/clicks online. As for Liverpool - Salah and VVD suck up most of the MB related to that club.



  • @Dan-The-Man Jesus ur worse than the misus keep banging on about the dishes. Instead it's neymar!



  • @Dan-The-Man I'm all for promoting players but come on mate - Henderson has been mentioned in enough threads now! I don't particularly see him as a good hold anyway - far more money to be made elsewhere in the current market.



  • @Shippers said in Henderson vs Neymar:

    @Dan-The-Man have you taken into account selling those 3448 shares though? That would take some shifting and your time would need to be right as you will be dropping the price as you sell unless you do it in dribs and drabs again very hard to do.

    Yeah, that's worth considering.

    If you instant sold the whole lot, you'd obviously wipe out some of your profits but let's say you halved your profits... you'd still have earned more than double what Neymar generated... And there's no need to instant sell... the Euro's is a 6 week tournament, there's plenty of buyers for Henderson during that window, so you have a natural exit strategy in place.

    but Neymar is a dividend earner, henderson isnt and dividends excite people.

    Sure... but on that one day when Henderson wins MB or PB... you're popping champagne that night ha. Imagine if he went on a run of decent games? His PB was the highest midfielder for Liverpool the other night... and I think as the season goes on, we're going to realise that players like Henerson were the real beneficiaries from the matrix change.



  • Not only is Kane England captain, very good chance Henderson doesn’t make the starting XI by the Euros next summer.



  • This post is deleted!


  • @janner73

    I'm all for hearing about other players mate. Might buy me a few of them.



  • @Dan-The-Man Glad you asked Dan :-)

    Henderson's price 12 months ago: 33p
    Henderson's price now: 53p
    Cap app: 60.6%

    Neymar's price 12 months ago: £4.46
    Neymar's price now: £6.86
    Cap app: 53.8%

    So even during the greatest season in Henderson's career, and arguably the most catastrophic in Neymar's, the Brazilian has returned just slightly lower capital appreciation, not to mention a dividend yield of approximately 10% in that time, which could well take those profits above what would have been made on Henderson.

    That's a fairly compelling argument to back Neymar if you ask me, as i predict he will have a better season this season than last, while Henderson will struggle to have another season as significant as the one he has just had. That is perhaps the judgement call we all need to make though.



  • rumour has it dan the man owns henderson


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