The Man city midfield and Phil Foden - analysis. What are Foden's chances?



  • So I've been looking into Phil Foden for a little bit so thought I'd start a thread and compare him to the rest of the Man City midfield and what are his chances of getting into the squad. (Disclaimer: I'm discounting Fernandinho and Rodri, as Foden does not play in their position - i.e. holding/defensive midfield) Thoughts welcome on what you think his chances are/if you think any of my logic is flawed. It's a long post - if you don't want to read it all, skip to bottom for conclusion.

    Main competition, and ahead of Foden in midfield I see it as: KDB, David and Bernado Silva, Gundogan.

    Statistics from last season, taken from whoscored.com

    David Silva: 33 league appearances (5 sub apps) - 2412 minutes. 9 champions league starts - 719minutes.
    So with the announcement that this is D.Silva's last season, general consensus is he is the main candidate to get rotated with Foden most often this season, with my thinking that D.Silva will still play crucial games (champions league knockouts, top 6 clashes etc...), so perhaps there is a chance that Foden could start in the game before these. EG: City have a champions league tie on the tue/wed, Foden could potentially start on the Sat/Sun prior to this. It's worth noting I do still think that David silva will start over Foden the majority of games when fit, even if it's for a regular league match against non top 6 rivals.
    Most likely outcome: Comes on for David Silva during the last 20/25mins of league games. Potentially starts a league game prior to a champions league game.

    Kevin De Bruyne: 19 league appearances (8 sub apps) - 978 minutes. 4 champions league apps (1 sub app) - 247 minutes
    The no brainer in this situation, Foden has no chance of displacing KDB in the team when he is fit. Arguably (and imo) CIty's best player when playing. Will not start over KDB in any game when fit (barring league cup, and maybe, maybe FA cup games, if Pep wants to rest KDB)
    Most likely outcome: No chance in taking KDB's place in the team if fit. Only scenario Foden starts over KDB is if Pep wants to rest KDB/the game isn't too important in context (EG: an FA cup tie against league 2 opposition)

    Bernado Silva: 36 league apps (5 sub apps) - 2853 minutes. 8 champions league apps (2 sub apps) - 578 minutes
    B.Silva is the more tricky one out of the 4 midfield options to Pep, as he also can play out wide on the wings and in the centre attacking midfield role. From my memory, Bernado Silva's playtime was split quite evenly between the wings/CAM and CM last season, often drifting in and out between the 2. One thing to note is he does post higher dribbles and key passing numbers as a winger/CAM than as a CM. Throw into the mix that Sané is out injured, Pep could be tempted to play B.Silva more out wide this season to cover for Mahrez and Sterling as the only 2 recognised wingers in the squad. Part of the reason he was played in CM so much was also to cover KDB when he was injured, which was majority of the season.I predict B.Silva will play more games out wide this year to cover for Mahrez/Sterling. Given the fact KDB is back fit, I don't think B.silva starts over D.Silva/KDB in important games.
    Most likely outcome:. Will result in Foden's pathway to being slightly easier with B.Silva splitting game time between CM and wings. This can also be backed up by the fact Foden came on as a sub for D.Silva to play CM in the last few minutes of the West Ham game, and not B.Silva

    Gundogan: 31 league apps (8sub apps) - 2136 minutes. 8 champions league apps (1 sub app) - 590 minutes
    Gundogan is the perhaps the main suspect challenging Foden to get onto the pitch from the bench. Unlike B.Silva, Gundogan cannot play wing, so whenever he does come on from the bench he will play CM, so this will potentially limit Foden's game time (he can play holding/defensive, but will not do so unless Rodri and Fernandinho are both unavailable for whatever reason imo). Given the fact that he has just signed a new 4 year contract, I don't think he will be constantly sat on the bench.
    Most likely outcome: The only way I could see it working would be if Pep says Foden is D.Silva's sub and Gundogan is KDB's sub (this was how they were subbed in the West Ham game).

    CONCLUSION: I do think Foden will get more game time this season, but will ultimately still be coming off the bench rather than starting league games. I can defo see Foden starting league cup and early FA cup games - could potentially start QF/SF/Final of FA cup, depending on how he gets on during the season. Will definitely be heavily involved in league cup is my prediction.
    As for his price on here, perhaps a tad too high for my liking for someone who doesn't consistently start games, let alone earn any dividends. KDB for example is cheaper and guaranteed to play for Belgium at Euros. Then again you only have to look at Greenwood/Brewster who are young and english, and their prices are sky high (granted I do think Foden is a lot closer to the 1st team than Brewster, its a toss up between who is closer between him and Greenwood.) I'll be keeping a close eye on Foden throughout the rest of the season.



  • Pep loves Foden and has already said he will get more game time this season.
    David Silva is leaving at the end of the season.
    He said he see's Foden as the replacement to David Silva.



  • @gball1975 I agree with you and say that he is David Silva's replacement, but I'm talking about this season. When fit, I still see David Silva starting the majority of games, certainly the important ones like I mentioned.



  • If i was buying at Foden's current price i would say look elsewhere for now, there is better value to be had. On the other hand, i expect him to feature more as the season goes on and any impressive performances or goals will see him rise quickly.



  • @Andy Agree but certainly a long term hold, I've held since end of last season and certainly holding onto him the long term.
    I think he will definitely get his chance this season and hopefully become a first choice for the beginning of next.



  • @NewUser296743 yeah, a bit too much atm for my liking, if he was closer to the £3 mark I'd be tempted, but that's just wishful thinking haha! Might look to get in on him next summer, before the start of next season. I'm predicting a mass sell off after Euros



  • He's currently £3.80 having tripled in price over the last 12 months yet only played 20 odd games scoring twice during 18/19. In real life he might be great & have loads of future potential but in FI terms (even accepting he's young & English) he's a terrible investment at this level; that's not to say he won't still go up or the youth/English bubble won't continue to drive his price but he's already 15th most expensive player on the index!

    How much in dividends will he win this year 10 -20p possibly & over the next 3 years? Then taking account of the downside risks both personally (injury, loss of form, internal competition) & market sentiment in general (youth bubble bursts, PB/MB/IPD becomes more important) I think he looks well overvalued compared to other players that will provide guaranteed dividends &/or capital growth.

    Good luck to holders but I wouldn't touch him with a bargepole at current price level.



  • I brought Foden @ £2.04 end of March … just a few shares to see what happened, has now turned into a long hold at least until end of this season.



  • @gball1975 Wish I got in on him at that price!



  • @NewUser159387 I do agree with you at current price he doesn't represent much value compared to some other players. I hold a fair amount in KDB and he's slowly risen a lot for me. Would be quite a while I'd imagine before Foden to start winning dividends as well like you mentioned. Main reason people buying him now would be for CA/Euros next summer



  • @Andy Wish I got more at that price to be far. I won't be topping up on him though at current price, I'll just settle for what I have on him.



  • I think Foden will be potentially the best player of his generation in midfield, but I don't think he'll be a regular start for at least 12 months, and i'm not convinced he'll make the euros next summer so I'm hoping for a big sell off then so I can jump on! KDB definitely is the safer investment, the only worry with him is injuries. I'm looking to invest when my ISA matures on a couple of young English midfielders and currently leaning towards Maddison over Foden, even looked at Harry Winks.



  • @ChazFI123 Agreed, I only see him being a starter once David Silva leaves after this season. I'm also hoping for the same as you haha! Doesn't make the squad, mass sell off ensues and then a big price drop so I can hop on. Might've been a slight hint from Southgate the fact that he didn't take him to the Nations league?
    Maddison has more PB potential for the season compared to Winks, although I do think Winks has more chance of starting for England. Maddison has too much competition in terms of attacking players to start imo.



  • Given he’s probably a year or two away from being England’s best player for the following ten years 15th on the index doesn’t seem too bad.
    Particularly when it’s obvious that his game will be a good fit for pb.



  • @Timothee-Atouba Hmm I do take your point. It's just at the moment I think he's a bit too pricey for what he's currently doing/will most likely do for this season anyways. Which is still relatively limited gametime and appearances from the bench. At almost £4 you could argue there is a lot better value elsewhere for short-medium term



  • Will keep this post in mind and bring it back up again closer to Euros to see what price comparison and how his season has gone



  • @Andy you really think he will be cheaper directly before or after the euros? No way he will be anything near £3-3.50 next year, he will be double that regardless of playing time even before the euros.



  • @Mr-Random-number say he doesn’t make the euros squad why wouldn’t that not cause his price to drop?



  • @Mr-Random-number said in The Man city midfield and Phil Foden - analysis. What are Foden's chances?:

    @Andy you really think he will be cheaper directly before or after the euros? No way he will be anything near £3-3.50 next year, he will be double that regardless of playing time even before the euros.

    That was just more wishful thinking haha, he’d have to have a medium/long term injury to drop down to around £3. So there’s 2 instances where I could potentially see him being cheaper
    1: he doesn’t make the Euros squad. Also no U21 tournaments etc... correct me if I’m wrong? People will sell off because of this
    2: directly after/right towards the end of the Euros, where people will be wanting to take profits when his price is at its peak, another sell off I reckon.



  • I've got quite a lot of money in foden at an average buy price of £3.54.

    It's a funny one. I'd agree that his short term dividends potential possibly struggles to justify his price, but I'm not too sure about the people who are saying he currently doesnt represent value but may do next season. They'll probably point to opportunity cost but I would suggest a year from now he could easily be £5.

    I'm a big fan, I wouldn't be shocked if he made the euros. I wouldn't be shocked if he made headlines in cup games. I wouldn't be shocked if he pushed some of those mentioned very hard for their place in the city side.

    A lot of people, me included, will happily invest in a player who they believe will be huge in the future. Admittedly, these players will often be half foden's price or less, much less in some cases, but I think id rather have him that 7-8 50p punts because I reckon hes a virtual certainty to be amongst the best in the world, and being english theres no danger of him being a world class player who manages to avoid winning divs like one or 2 I could name



  • @ChazFI123 sorry I meant cheaper than his current price now. If all goes well and the index grows at current rate I’d say he will be £7ish near tail end of season. If he doesn’t make the squad can’t see him going any lower than £6. So I’d invest now at £3.79 or whatever he is but it’s only my opinion.


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to Football Index Forum was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.