For any new traders out there just buy pogba



  • @Martyn-B A good , fair point. We on here know why Pogba is top, because of his media appeal.
    But if you’re talking about the general football fan not on the index I don’t see why Pogba being top is good from that POV alone. I’ve had mates staggered, raising eyebrows when the hear he’s the most expensive player as put simply he’s not nearly one of the worlds top players.
    When Pogba first got to the top(probably somewhere near the turn of the year) there were people questioning whether it looked good on the index?



  • @Timothee-Atouba

    Another fair point. It doesn't have to be Pogba vs Sancho. Just when trying to explain the concept to football fans and potentially future FI traders I would prefer to have the FI King as a proven earner rather a potential earner.



  • @Martyn-B A fair point. One thing that does need to be factored in though is that every player will ultimately end up with an IS value of zero when they retire (maybe slightly more depending on how generous FI are).
    The market is still very immature but ultimately the way I see it players should rise to a peak price probably at around 25-26, plateau for a year or 2 and then decline in price as they head towards retirement - at this point you are looking for the dividend return to be higher than the purchase price.
    The increase part of a players price is definitely happening too early and we are going to see a lot of players peaking in price at 21-22 because people want to get on the next big thing early. I would also suggest prices aren't always declining on older players in the way you should expect. Take someone like Banega, this is probably his last season before potentially leaving a PB league, there is no way he will return anything like his price in divs, so he's purely gonna be a race to get out at some point later in the season.



  • @janner73

    Good points, especially as from other threads it is clear that I hold Banega. I have 500, at the moment, like most sensible, informed traders I plan to own zero by May. Classic reward vs. risk, almost guaranteed dividends, sell to early miss out, sell to late and selling at a big loss. Volatility of the market and the ignorance of many may bale me out, but is not going to be part of my strategy for Banega. Still think he is a good hold until January.

    Edit: Think I have mentioned Banega in 3 threads. Yesterday was about a safe short term hold. In the previous threads I even warned that he is an aging Argentinean, entering the last year of his contract and could leave next summer so best to sell before May. My pumps even came with a disclaimer!!



  • @Martyn-B Didn't realise you held him lol but he was just an example.
    The Messi debate is always an interesting one and probably a better example. If you believe he has 3 seasons left then rationally speaking at his current price of £5.08 to buy today you have to believe he will return £1.70 in divs per season if you're holding til the end. His price should also drop by £1.70 per season. I highly doubt the market will act that logically - there will be holders who have made plenty of divs already and will hold as long as they can and not worry about what price they ultimately get out at.



  • @ScouseSte

    And again, different opinions that why FI is unique!!

    I thought that Vardy is the easiest pick from many IPD players, why...
    He was the most popular last season and with new boss who likes attacking football, Maddison the best player in Europe with stats for creating chance, Tielemans... 🤓 Easy for me to put bet on him that he would rise before season start, like for you that Pogba would be on Divs everyday, all summer 👍



  • @janner73 No worries, the edit above isn't a dig at you either.

    One thing that has massively altered my thinking is the volatility of the market. Trying to guess, or predict, what will happen next is impossible. During this volatile time I have chosen to go with the proven earners and count my dividends. The diversity of my portfolio will help when, or if, things settle down.



  • @Mundek

    Sorry, I could have put Vardy in my song there but decided to subtly pump my own portfolio 😂



  • @Martyn-B In times of volatility the safest holds are those that have an underlying value - dividend winners - so it's a great strategy.



  • @Mundek

    One thing that our conversation has just made me think about, when making comparisons, is portfolio structure

    Myself and many others try and hold a certain NUMBER of shares in each player rather than a certain £ amount. This is either for OCD reasons, simplicity of management, or, certainly in my case...a safeguard in minimising losses.

    So, let's say I own those 10 Pogba's bought at £73. If I am mirroring the structure of my real portfolio, I have the same number of shares in Salah, Foden and Aouar for example. 40 shares in total.
    If I have another £73 sitting in my account, it's highly unlikely I'm going to buy 146 shares in Vardy (50p at the time). VERY RISKY if I did - if my 4 other players rise 5p each but Vardy falls 5p, I'm down £7.10 overall!
    So, with my safety-conscious portfolio strategy i am more likely to buy 10 Vardy, 10 in someone else etc..

    So, let's use numbers of shares in comparison rather than value...
    10 x Pogba's bought at £73, now worth €71.30 + £7.50 cash = £5.80 profit
    10 x Vardy bought at £5.00, now worth £8.30 = £3.30 profit.

    My personal approach is not to be concerned what the investment cost, it's how much will each share earn, whether via divs or cap app .

    *the only time I'll deviate from this is when purchasing IPD players, higher numbers for cheap prices. This is to get that "quick fix" that many of us need 😀



  • I wasn't sure which Pogba thread to post this in, so just went for whichever one was closest to the top of the forum!

    I just noticed that Lukaku has been gaining moderate MB scores (around 200pts per day when he registers) on a relatively regular basis for the last couple of weeks. Given that he was a relatively weak MB player outside of transfer speculation (certainly in comparison to Pogba) whilst at Utd, does this say anything about what we might expect of Pogba's MB if he does leave for Real Madrid?

    I'm not saying there's a direct comparison, but i for one am encouraged. When you leave the PL, even if you're not a media darling, there is a residual media interest, and seeing as Pogba is by far the biggest media darling, and he would be joining one of the biggest clubs in the world, in the league English media follows more than any other outside England, wouldn't we expect to see him still receiving huge coverage?

    I have already made this argument elsewhere anyway, but seeing Lukaku rattle up any sort of MB scores encourages me further that even if Pogba leaves Utd, he won't be far from the headlines in the English media.



  • @Wotabeast I think there would be huge media interest for the first season at least and he would be capable of plenty of 1000+ MB scores - certainly wouldn't be the cliff-fall that many seem to expect.

    I say this as a non-Pogba holder.



  • @Chris-J said in For any new traders out there just buy pogba:

    @Wotabeast I think there would be huge media interest for the first season at least and he would be capable of plenty of 1000+ MB scores - certainly wouldn't be the cliff-fall that many seem to expect.

    I say this as a non-Pogba holder.

    I agree with your projection here but I have to ask, being a non-holder, when do YOU buy in? Is it in your plans ?



  • @Chris-J That's exactly what i would expect as well. And seeing as Pogba (in his current situation at Man Utd) is currently UNDERPRICED compared to his dividend yield, he could even afford to lose some of his MB returns and still represent excellent value.

    The thing with a Pogba move to Real is that if he did very well, he would make headlines for his match winning performances. If he did poorly or the fans didn't take to him (which is certainly not unheard of), he would surely also make headlines - we would see all sorts of stories linking Pogba with a move back to the PL etc.



  • @ScouseSte Not sure what @Chris-J will have to say on this, but there are a couple of decisions to consider. If you think Pogba will stay at Man Utd, then now is the best time to buy in as surely his price will go up once the transfer window closes. If you believe he will move, then you might wish to wait until the move happens as surely his price will fall further if and when he leaves.

    If it were me, i would look at both situations and consider buying now rather than waiting. I believe my predictions about Pogba's MB at Real Madrid would be fairly accurate, so even if he moved and his price dropped, i believe it would eventually return to a higher point than it currently is in the medium term. If he stays at Utd, his price will surely go up quite steeply.



  • @ScouseSte I tend to avoid the £5+ players unless there is an irrational drop - only hold Neymar who I bought in at £6.63 at the breaking of his allegations and Sterling at £2.73 from my early days.

    My de-risking and eventual exit strategy over the next 6-12 months doesn’t allow me to pump any further funds in unfortunately.



  • @Chris-J said in For any new traders out there just buy pogba:

    @ScouseSte I tend to avoid the £5+ players unless there is an irrational drop - only hold Neymar who I bought in at £6.63 at the breaking of his allegations and Sterling at £2.73 from my early days.

    My de-risking and eventual exit strategy over the next 6-12 months doesn’t allow me to pump any further funds in unfortunately.

    You've got Neymar so that's enough.

    Of the top 4, I hold only one dividend-earner (Pogba) and one for cap app (Mbappe).



  • @ScouseSte said in For any new traders out there just buy pogba:

    Of the top 4, I hold only one dividend-earner (Pogba)

    Doesn't it worry you, that even during times of Pogba dominating the MB... his price is going the other way?

    I mean... we could all see he was about to win MB 3 days in a row... yet his price has gone from £7.17 to £7.14

    It's hardly a big deal to lose 3p, especially when he's gained more via MB in that time... but doesn't it speak to the amount of people trying to get out of Pogba?

    His spread is 43p too, (6%) compared to someone like Rasfords (3%).

    Which to me implies theres quite a few folk with Pogba in the queue.



  • @Dan-The-Man im happy to answer this and the answer is no, ive recently just bought into pogba at £7.10 and will top up if he did go below £7 say. Prior to this i thought holding one of the big boys would be stressful and for others it maybe but its flucuated a little but i am enjoying the divs and just forgetting about the value. Not sure why it would worry people and nothing has changed in 3 days to suggest his price would rise. People might get on when european window shuts but we will see on that, you can see hes a div magnet and whilst mbappee for example has increased considerably as we speak that value isnt warranted (not saying it wouldnt in the future and the quality he possess is huge) but will people continue to hold not earning divs at such a high value



  • @ScouseSte said in For any new traders out there just buy pogba:

    My personal approach is not to be concerned what the investment cost, it's how much will each share earn, whether via divs or cap app .

    This is exactly how I do it... Whether the player costs £1 or £7 I will try to buy in equal quantities so the rise/loss and divs are the same impact. I don't want 50,000 Doherty cos I'd lose £500 every time he dropped a penny... While my 1000 neymar only make £30 when winning triple media. Seems crazy risk management for those that worry more about the investment amount rather than share quantity.


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