Discussion Of The Overall Market



  • I think it would be interesting to start a discussion on the overall market. Trends, predictions, thoughts ect.

    I'll start.

    Looking at Matt's Stats

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    4th August

    0_1566329029418_4aug.png

    10th May

    0_1566329048768_17th May.png

    Will be interesting once Matt has a years worth of data.

    Comparing the 6 month data. We can see the Top 50 is slowing down in growth and the Top 200 is staying about the same. The growth area seems to be in the 200 - 800 ranked players.

    A lot of us know FI works in cycles, and once one area becomes over cooked and value starts to appear in other areas the market moves to that, til the next one comes around.

    Where do you see the market heading over the next 3 month, 6 month, 3 years, 10 years?

    @Matt-FI Any chance we could have a look at the data with a extra column for the max amount of data you currently have. eg 7 day/ 1 month/3 month/6 month/ 10 month. Think that would be right. First ever Matt's Stats email on 08 October 2018 14:39.

    ps You still need to add a donate link to your emails so I can buy you a drink :)



  • Good post.

    I assume this cannot take into account the compounding of dividends earned by the top players so although growth is a bit lower than 200-800 the dividend potential will close that growth gap.

    It appears new traders are starting to take notice of the dividend potential now the season is underway as Media Madness was dominated by Pogba, Neymar, Maguire, Wan-Bissaka, de Ligt and other premium players deemed unaffordable by many newbies.

    The huge 20p increases in goal scorers these last 2 weeks indicate there is a lot of short term trading & potential flipping going on although prices are rising nicely.

    The youth bubble seems to be slowing down although people still seem obsessed with age.

    Be interesting to see how things are in the next month after the 1st international break once the euro transfer windows are shut.



  • @Misto

    Some great stats there to pour over.

    Just going to add this for now.

    This is a screen shot of the top 19 on March 26th (day of the share-split).

    0_1566330674902_Screen Shot 2019-03-26 at 12.28.27.png

    For comparison here's the top 19 today.

    0_1566330966330_Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 20.55.22.png



  • @Zidave The goal scoring spike right now are unprecedented. IPD made a difference, but what we are seeing now is on another level again.



  • @Misto said in Discussion Of The Overall Market:

    @Zidave The goal scoring spike right now are unprecedented. IPD made a difference, but what we are seeing now is on another level again.

    I can't work out if it is people trying to profit or people genuinely believing they can win by buying a player to win 1 or 2p but the late comers are paying 20p more than a minute before. There must be people getting burnt fingers.



  • @Zidave If people are trying to get in early and sell to the late comers. Margins are very thin after commission, if you can even pull it off regularly.



  • Having only been here since January I don't feel qualified enough to predict where the market will be in 6 months + so I'll leave that to the more experienced traders such as @Misto et al.

    What I will say though is looking at @Dan-The-Man's two screen shots makes me far more comfortable with how things are now than how they were 5 months ago.

    Having a top-19 that is less than £4 apart, rather than a top-2 that are nearly £2.50+ more expensive than 3rd place just smacks to me of a more balanced, rounded and dare I say it less-risky market.

    Traders would appear, from these 2 screen shots at least, to be spreading their money around rather than endlessly ploughing it into a select few names. Perhaps this means traders are trying to have multiple strategies within their portfolios, rather than one rigid idea of how they want to run their portfolio and are finally believing those of us on here who have been preaching "Diversification" for months and months.

    Another school of thought could be that the increase in traders due to the recent advertising campaigns are taking one look at the prices of Pogba and Neymar and instantly turning their attention to their peers looking for more value and the next "Index King". Within reason, Pogba and Neymar have been fairly stagnant recently, while the rest of the market booms. It's obvious that Pogba and Neymar have dialled back a bit in the 5 months shown, but the rest have caught up far quicker than these two have shrunk.

    I may be over-simplifying things, and it may mean absolutely nothing at all, but that's my 2p worth.



  • @Zidave

    I joined in a few times this week.

    • Pukki, is 22p up since I got in on his hatrick and obviously the 3p Goal dividend for that night was paid too.

    • Joao Moutino is down 2p since his assist (though I sense that's more to do with 1 game day spike than his assist spike)

    • Anthony Martial is 16p down and was down 3p the second I'd bought in. The instant it refreshed to say I'd bought him...

    I'm more than happy to hold all three, especially with Pukki playing in the early game on Saturday but Martial being down 16p taught me not to try this when Man Utd are live and I'm following the action via Sofascores.



  • @Misto my gut feeling for this season is telling me to focus on the Premier League. 90% of my portfolio is EPL players or players heavily linked to it. The other 10% are the big PB players from the other leagues. I feel that we will have a lot of new members this year and most if not all will be casual gamblers and football fans. They will focus on what they are passionate about and for most it will be the EPL and players from the teams they support. With football index mainly being a UK site at this moment in time i feel it is best to focus on UK based players especially for the media aspect of it.
    The main down side i see to my approach is if the english teams dont fare as well in europe this year but ill assess that later in the season if needs be



  • @Dan-The-Man I can't remember the game. I was watching a game on my PC that has 3 screen. I had FI already open and by the time I turned my head and typed the name of the scorer he was up 5/6p in a matter of 2 seconds. I know watching on the SkySports app has a small delay compared to live TV, but people must to watching and hovering over the buy button.



  • @Dan-The-Man to help put your mind at ease i watched the game and i was more impressed with martial last night than i was all last season he looks switched on now



  • @Black-wolf

    Yeah, he's 2 in 2 so it's not a bad hold, if he nets again, it might get good but 16p was a stinger like. Thankfully Pukki has more than made up for it.



  • @Black-wolf Very good point. Over the last 3 years we must have on boarded most the football mad customers that watch every league and big match and FI would have been very appealing to them, hence we joined early. I pick my weekend matches based on what games are the biggest and best from any of the top 5 leagues, where as the customers we will on board now will be more casual and probably couldn't name 20 foreign league players to win a bet.



  • @LukeMalla

    Yeah, the growth on Pogba and Neymar was so impressive but it left them so expensive by comparison to the others. By being closer in price to the group... it should make them more attractive.



  • @Dan-The-Man i saw the drop and bought into Martial and Aubameyang today. Both looking like great holds that have been dumped for no obvious reason. Im not on Pukki yet im still unsure at the moment



  • @Black-wolf

    I was searching for him every week last season hoping for the IPO then missed it some how.

    His stats last year were nuts and then obviously there's question marks with it being the Premiership but he scored against Liverpool and followed that with a hatrick... so... I think he's answered the questions.

    Norwich have Chelsea on Saturday... should be an interesting game and if he lights Chelsea up, with it being the early game it could be another big boom... but if he doesn't... that huge spike from last week might not stick.



  • @Dan-The-Man im definitely thinking it over



  • @Black-wolf

    Might be worth waiting until after the match.

    We saw Pulisic drop this week and I feel like a big part of that is because we saw such a big spike.

    I'm holding Pukki... but I'm tempted to get out Saturday morning before the game... and catch the drop... of course... if he scores I'll cry a little inside.



  • @Dan-The-Man just seen he has the same birthday as me but different year im in 😁



  • @Black-wolf

    I've heard worse reasons ha.

    Bought a guy for his Afro once ha.


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