Is £7 the limit?

  • I'm interested to hear peoples opinions as to whether a player's value will increase much beyond the £7 mark.

    Both Pogba and Neymar finished last season at £7.50+ and despite a huge amount of MB over the summer and both players have very strong PB potential, both their values seem to have settled around the £7 mark even after strong investment in the Index in the first couple of weeks in the season.

    Add to this Mbappe's, Sancho's and Sterling's value soaring but again appearing to stall around the £7 mark. Is this the limit given the current dividends on offer or is the opinion that people will continue to invest in these high value players?

  • I think the limit might be closer to £8 at the current dividend level (if players are exemplary) but not really increasing beyond that. No reason after the next dividend increase for the likes of those players not to go up to £10 but I’m happy with the way the market is growing for the moment.

  • Well they were £8+ at the share split, and dividends did go up; I think people are just seeing value lower down.

    I do think maybe £8.50 is the natural limit right now with current dividends, but so many times in the past people would say there is a ceiling, only for it to be smashed (I remember finding an old thread from early 2018 saying no player would ever go past £10!).

  • @Neil-S Based on his dividend return Pogba's true value is at least £12 - but that's based on him returning the same dividends for the next 5-6 seasons and would need him to stay at Utd to do so. The likely move next summer is what is keeping his price down.
    He is an anomaly tho and outside of him we are pretty much at the limit with many players massively overpriced based on current dividends.
    It will be interesting to see at what point FI look to increase dividends as when I look at the market now I see very little true value,

  • I tend to agree there is more value lower down. There are plenty of players from 50p to £2 who represent greater growth potential despite not necessarily picking up the same dividend returns of the likes of Pogba and Naymar. Whilst the Index exponentially grows, surely the smart investment is in FI growth rather than dividend returns?

  • cap ap should stabilise the further we go into the season.. as players place in the team, their ability and their pb scores are all known factors. At that point people go back to wanting dividends … so it becomes what yield is deemed the market norm. I think we will see £9 by xmas.

  • we've seen in the past that people have been happy to pay £20-£25+ to get 'guaranteed' returns and I don't see why that would ever change so on reflection the limit is a lot higher than £7... because someone will always pay more for something than someone else!!!

    The reason for the flat behavior of the market leaders I suspect is that both Pogba & Neymar have had uncertain summers and have yet this season to provide any real goods on the pitch.. whilst Jadon Sancho has been in scintillating form for Dortmund and Kylian Mbappe is hotly tipped for another top scoring season in France.

    We might see a slight shift in power with the likes of Sterling & Salah overtaking Messi but I would be more optimistic about a £10 footballer on the index come May than i would be concerned that a £7 limit is all we have to enjoy if previous seasons and FI's continued growth is anything to go by!!!

  • If 900 shares moves a player 1p it would take £675k being invested in a player to move him from £7 to £8, that's alot of money especially if we're taking new money on the index rather than circular. Using a £7 player as reference according to a recent email from FI £120k was traded on Jaden Sancho last Saturday alone, though, it's not clear how much of that relates to buying and selling. While you can't draw any firm conclusions from this it's highly unlikely you will get an £8 player within the next month.

    Personally Im of the opinion once all the PB leagues and Europe competitions are up and running the lower end of the top 200 is going to grow much quicker than the top. I can't see that reversing till around Xmas time.

  • @DW nearly that much went into Ceballos in the last 5 days
    Edit sorry I meant £1 rise

  • @Gregolocky yeah but moving Ceballos by £1 only required about £190k.

  • @DW said in Is £7 the limit?:

    @Gregolocky yeah but moving Ceballos by £1 only required about £190k.

    If moving Ceballos by £1 required £190K why would raising a £7 play by £1 require 675k ?

  • Banned

    @Ralph-Wiggum because his price is higher yet still takes 900 shares per penny.

  • @MrWh1te said in Is £7 the limit?:

    @Ralph-Wiggum because his price is higher yet still takes 900 shares per penny.

    Yes of course, thank you.

  • Dividends need to be increased for players to go above and beyond their current prices. Whilst the likes of players who don’t win any dividends continue to rise I can’t see fi doing it anytime soon. In my opinion PB should far outweigh MB. You have to be lucky to win PB where as MB it’s the usual suspects

  • id say £13 is the limit

  • @Vespasian32 if you are right you will definitely be on my Christmas card list 🎄

  • @LittleFish 😂😂😂

  • Is there any evidence that dividends will be increase this season? Is It wishful thinking or is there market pressure on FI to do it? Personally FI looks like a company being fattened up for sale. The focus on rapid sales, marketing to grow brand awareness, little focus on customer retention or investment in systems. Hence to reduce profits by increasing divs when user numbers are growing seems unlikely if my scenario is correct.

  • @DW its only a lot of money if its a handful of people. If 100 000 people all bought one share that still moves him £1 so it really depends how many active traders there are

  • The rational limit is significantly higher than £7. It’s just that the “perfect” FI player doesn’t exist in the current generation.

    If there was a media darling currently playing, like David Beckham in the 90s or George Best in the 70s, they would be winning MB most days (assume 2p a day for 250 days per annum = £5 a year). On that basis you could see £25 as a reasonable ceiling - equivalent to a 20% ROI.

    So find a young, world-class, English, attacking, megastar celebrity football absolutely LOVED by the media - probably playing for England and Man Utd with no prospect of moving overseas - and the sky is the limit.

    Pogba, Messi, Neymar, Salah, Kane, Rashford etc all have some of these qualities - but none of them fulfil every criteria.

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