Friday Night Tips - 23/08/19



  • I hope everyone is well and you've all had good summer breaks.

    My focus this season will be on single match days, as well as some double match days where only a small number of games provides value.

    I will create threads (typically for Friday/Monday) fixtures, where tipsters can discuss potential front runners in the race for dividends.

    Let's get started........


    Villa v Everton
    FC Koln v Dortmund
    Grenada V Sevilla
    Levante V Villareal

    Villa v Everton looks like it has score draw written all over it for me, with neither team wanting to lose, once the pressure cranks up in the final 30 mins.
    I'm hoping the two attacking fullbacks that face off cancel one another out, or at least that Villa's tactics on the night are sound.

    Despite a good performance on their Bundesliga return, Koln are up against it.
    Dortmund are on fire, there's talk in Germany of a power shift and they have invested well and have one of the best squads in Europe. There's a problem with having such a complete squad - who will be selected to start ? Sancho probably will but it's a pricey option when there's lots of midfield competition.

    Sevilla surprised me in their first game...a lot,, Not so much a 5p dividend return on a player costing 57p (as well as a further rise of 30p). What surprised me was the team selection and performance, leaving me with a headache. I'm hoping both Banega and El Haddadi return to the team and dominate. Both were key players in pre season, scoring and creating. For me Reguilon was a pre-season steal at 57p, currently trading at 88p, it's half the price of Digne and still looks value when compared to top price fullbacks at £3+

    I'm not sure how Grenada pulled off a 4-4 draw away in their last game, but I am sure Villareal will be looking to tighten up at the back for this one with Levante.
    I'm expecting a bore draw and don't fancy either of these two sides this season.



  • I’m hoping for another 4-4 then! I hold Javier Ontiveros (21yo) winger 55p who’s signed for Villareal. May not start, however will be one to keep an eye on during the season as he’s trading £1.20 lower than Chukweze.



  • So Alcacer then???



  • Welcome back @C-Arroyo 😉



  • @Weedster

    According to index pricing he's 4th favorite behind Keane, Brandt and Richarlison in the forward market.
    Neither Keane or Brandt started in their last games, so Alcacer looks decent value at £1.89.

    I think Sevilla have the easier game on the night though.
    Added to which El Haddadi costs only 73p
    At that price he's one of few forwards I'd be content to flip on a month to month basis this season.

    I think a lot of traders would have picked up Alcacer prior to the last game and are currently holding, propping up his price.
    I don't see waves.
    El Haddadi fell 4p - If he starts he'll make it back, if he scores he'll spike and if he wins the dividend his share price will fly.

    I stick.



  • Can we all just do one tip per position as more skill than picking loads 👍



  • Fir old times sake... For pb Il go for:
    D- akanji
    M- sancho
    F- alcacer
    Welcome back @C-Arroyo



  • @C-Arroyo where you been hiding??? Welcome back! New users-get ready!!!🤣🤣



  • Akanji and sancho please!!!



  • Somebody must fancy Thorgan? I’ve had him on the market 3 days. Thought it was an easy sell a few days before a single against a crap side. Wrong.



  • Akanji
    Banega
    Moise Keen(if he gets a start)



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in Friday Night Tips - 23/08/19:

    Somebody must fancy Thorgan? I’ve had him on the market 3 days. Thought it was an easy sell a few days before a single against a crap side. Wrong.

    He suits pb better than alcacer, so really data wise I was going to choose him, but alcacer looks bang on form.
    Why u selling hazard?



  • @Westy I just don’t think he’ll complete the 90 that often plus Brandt didn’t start last week so that’s a place under severe threat. Also I thought he may have been reclassified as a fwd for this season.



  • Def - Coleman
    Mid - Grealish
    Att - Alcacer



  • Akanji
    Cazorla
    Brandt (if he plays) / alcacer



  • @C-Arroyo welcome back... I'm going to buy a load of strakosha now you are back to keep him rising!



  • Interesting discussion this one.

    Prior to the Spanish meddling with my plans (by rearranging fixtures and screwing me on an investment in Betis - my only loss so far this season) !!!

    I'd been scouting Dortmund in pre-season, making some notable observations.

    First choice keeper is an open contest.
    The change in points matrix enables a recent lefty signing to increase his relative magnificence in terms of pennies for PB points.
    On the other side, the boy on loan from Madrid has been tested as an offensive winger.
    Not much to report in mid, but I like that the "old" world cup winner, who's also pennies takes a few pennies.....and VAR = lots of pennies.
    Up front though there's a place for someone to help themselves to record book recognition - assuming any of them can step up...I'm unconvinced.

    In pre season Hazard was tested several times in the Number 9 position, Alcacer has a good goal per min ratio, though it's rarely reflected in his PB scoring. Reus remains a contender and like Brandt may see benefits due to creative aspects of matrix restructure. The latter may be one of the few who I predict this season will frequently score 300+ match day points.
    We're seeing moves on the likes of KDB, is it justified ? Again I'm unconvinced, but the trends are what fills the piggy.

    I don't own any Thorgan right now, having moved money into Sevilla, however if Alcacer doesn't fill the void...and urgently then I think Hazard gets an extended period up front. Once settled and scoring, he could very easily become a big winner in the early part of the season.

    In summary, Dortmund may well have a "cheat code mid" to add to a couple of "defenders" in our Opta derived allocations.

    Seriously though.....We all know star player on the night as ever is going to Ever.



  • Just as an experiment I bought 5 of Grealish, Wesley and Mcginn from Villa. Guesswork really, not even sure which of those will be playing but they will qualify for IPDs for the next time Villa have a single match day too so hopefully will pay off at some point.

    Also bought a few Pickford for Everton (wanted him for the Euro qualifiers anyway) so if Villa don't score I'll at least get a penny back per share from Everton's clean sheet.



  • @Ralph-Wiggum

    Mcginn could do well in Euro qualifiers too.
    Looking at the upcoming fixtures I fully expect Kylian Mbappe to score double figures in 180 mins against the outstanding Albanians and the mighty Andorra.

    There's a lot of people selling Mbappe right now - I'm not one of them.
    Roll on Toulouse at home this weekend.

    Pickford should grab a couple of clean sheets on international duty too.



  • Hopefully Reguilion has another good one for Seville.
    (Seville also have another Friday game next week).


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