Tom Davies - Bargain?



  • Been on Football index for about 8 months now and i have noticed a trend in young English footballer especially attaching minded players doing very well price-wise. Looking at the likes of Reece James -£1.80, Troy Parrott £1.76, David Brooks £1.70, I cannot understand how Tom Davies is around 0.59p how has a few season in the Prem under his belt ? Has been in every youth England squad but unfortunately was injured for the U21 Euros.

    Surely a bargain. with a few good appearances (with Aston Villa tonight in mind) his price will go over the £1.00? or am i missing something?



  • @NewUser262793 hasn't he not started either game for Everton this season? They've literally just signed 2 centre midfielders as well. If you consider someone like Kante's price who is probably the best defensive midfielder in the world- is Davies really good value? Defensive minded midfielders have barely any value on FI and that's if their first choice, it's even worse when someone who can't get in the team



  • @NewUser262793 I have bought some so not trying to pump here but if its true that marcus Edwards is going to udinese he could turn out to be a bargain if he starts playing and hits some form.

    A lot of spurs fans seem gutted he may leave.



  • @Stevo He is on a 1 week trial with them and then it's down to the manager to decide if they want to sign him. It's being talked about in more detail here:

    https://forums.footballindex.co.uk/topic/10027/marcus-edwards-55p-to-serie-a/26



  • @ChazFI123 I agree he probably isn't going to break into the first team fully this year but he isn't a defensive minded midfielder. He does play the deeper role sometimes but that doesn't mean he is defensive mid. He is good going forward and the attacking side is probably the better side of his game, if he gets a good run of games or a transfer where he is a regular I think he could see a good price rise



  • @TraderJ he created one chance and had 7 shots in 16 appearances last season in the premier league?? and created no chances in 33 games the season before? Has 2 goals and 1 assist in over 50 games in the last 2 seasons, doesn't seem like attacking play is his strength at all? Also his PB is shocking so I don't see any value at all in him in terms of FI



  • @Brabbn oh thanks. I'd seen the other thread but didn't realise it went into that much detail.



  • @ChazFI123 most of his appearances were sub appearances for 10-15 mins, hard to get anything done in that time. I agree at the moment it doesn't look like he will be breaking into the first team anytime soon barring a string of injuries for the players ahead of him. But he does have potential and is one to watch over the next few years. It is hard to say what his PB value is at the minute, as he very rarely starts in PB games so there isn't a big data set to look at. I think over the next few years he will develop into a starter in the Prem whether that is at Everton or another club.



  • @TraderJ so you're essentially saying there's a good chance he will end up like James McCarthy who has just joined Palace and his price is currently 28p- I just don't see the value, the upside is so small compared to the highly likely chance he will just become another average centre midfielder for a smaller club in the PL



  • @ChazFI123 I'm assuming you've never actually seen Davies play you are just looking at stats? If you had then you wouldn't even be comparing the two players because they are nothing alike. Davies is also only 21 and has been heavily featured in the England youth teams. Nobody knows how his career will develop but he has all the potential in the world it just depends if he can fulfil it, if he does then his price at the moment will be a bargain



  • @TraderJ he has all the potential in the world? Somehow I think if he had 'all the potential in the world' Everton would be backing him rather than going and signing 3 centre midfielders this summer and even playing Schneiderlein who got frozen out last season, ahead of him. If he cannot get a game for his club, doesn't matter how much he's appeared for the youth teams, he won't be getting a sniff for England. You're more than welcome to invest him in, but I don't think you'll see much return from him bringing the water bottles on for most of the season



  • @ChazFI123 I've already seen a return of 18p per share in him from where I invested so that's not a bad return in my book. I'm sure you would have given me the same opinion when I did invest in him and if i had of listened I would have missed out.

    That's your opinion and you're entitled to it but clearly from your comments you've not seen him play and the stats don't tell the full story. If you think every player who has a lot of potential should be starting every week then you are clearly disillusioned. There are plenty of young players with potential that have to sit on the bench and bide their time.



  • @TraderJ lets be fair I think if anyone is delusional it might be you after suggesting he has all the potential in the world. Do you honestly think he's closer to starting for Everton than he was 2 years ago? He will have a future in the PL I'm sure but if Everton really do have aspirations for Europe he'll be nowhere near the side



  • @ChazFI123 I think it's pretty delusional to comment on the talent of a player you've never seen play. The thread was started by someone asking if he is a bargain at his current price, if he fulfills his potential then I believe he is. Based on a few stats you have looked up you don't agree and that's fair enough, nobody is asking you to invest



  • @TraderJ at what point do players have to start proving their talent though- do you believe he has progressed within the Everton side since he broke into the side? As he seems further away from the starting 11 than he was 2 years ago. Also do you think Everton fully believe in him due to the fact they've gone and signed 3 other centre midfielders who are all above him in the pecking order?



  • @ChazFI123 of course they have to start proving their potential at some point, last season he had a few rough games but the whole team was underperforming and it's not easy for a player who was 20 at the time to come in and perform in a team that aren't playing well. As you mentioned earlier Everton are a team that want to challenge for top 6 and to do that you need depth, I don't think bringing in other players is a knock on Davies or their confidence in him. I think Everton are trying to build a deep squad that will allow them to challenge on multiple fronts. If they do that then they will need strength and I'm sure Davies will get some chances to prove himself. If he takes them and establishes himself in the team then he will definitely be looking a bargain at his current price



  • @TraderJ but that is such a big IF, I'll give you two examples from another club in Merseyside. Jordan Henderson is 50p, captained his team to a Champions League and also has captained England, and has similar returns in terms of goals and assists- will Davies get anywhere near doing that in the next 2/3 years? Gigi Wjinaldum, will be starting at the euro's and had a prominent role in Liverpool's CL win last season, his price is 56p, has a better scoring and assisting record than Davies, will Davies be doing better than that within your 3 year holding period? I just don't get the value, yes his price is cheap and there's not much to lose but his ceiling is so limited



  • @ChazFI123 again you are comparing him to players that he shouldn't be compared to. Both of those players are in their late 20s, both 29 if I'm not mistaken. One of the points of the thread which the original poster highlighted is theat there seems to be premium on young English players and neither Henderson or Wijnaldum fall into that category. Both of those players are at the back end of their career now, Davies is only just getting started and as I said earlier his PB potential is unknown as he hasn't started enough PB eligible games to get a good data set. It may look poor when you look it up but you have to keep in mind that most of his appearances are 10 mins here and 15 minutes there and nobody is going to put up good PB scores in that time.

    If Henderson or Wijnaldum have a great game they probably aren't going to change much in price. However, if Davies comes on and scores a goal and then gets a run in the team and looks good, maybe scores and gets a couple of assists his price is going to rise by at least 20-30p, probably more. Obviously there is no guarantee that is going to happen but he is a player with potential so there is a chance and for his current price I don't see much downside. You say his ceiling is low but that is just because you seem to look at things from a stats perspective only and fail to see nuances. Like I said nobody is asking you to invest, so let's just leave it there as It is clear we aren't going to agree



  • @NewUser262793 Troy Parrott is Irish!



  • A lot of the money flowing around FI is very short term. The money will go to Greenwood, Brewster et al as English youngsters as they offer unlimited potential (at least in everyone's head as it can't be proved otherwise). This supports their price until they play and either boss it, flop or look simply average.

    The issue with Davies is that he doesn't have this unlimited (but impossible to prove) potential any more. He is known and didn't 'boss it': therefore in the small bubble of FI he is by a sizeable proportion of users already judged to be a faliure. The money therefore bypasses him and goes to another unproven youngster.


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