Fernando Llorente to Man Utd



  • A few rumours are starting about him going on a free to Man Utd. The other club said to be interested is Napoli. (https://t.co/BxDHRHzjan?amp=1)
    This is not a pump, he is currently £0.38 and my question is more about how people think his price would differ depending on if he signed for Napoli or Man Utd? If he goes to Napoli, would he maybe increase to £0.50? And if to Man Utd £0.60 or maybe even higher?



  • The guy is 34, in what world is he going to earn £0.38 of dividends before he retires? Already looks overpriced.



  • @indzan You don't need to earn back dividends to the value of the price you paid. Yes he could be close to retiring but a 38p striker would only need d to score a goal or 2 and he goes up 10p instantly. You could easily sell at a profit then



  • @Wolf Yeah I know you don't need to earn back dividends but the fair value of a future should be the amount of dividends that a player is expected to earn. Sure you could speculate that others will act irrationally if he scores a goal but he still looks overpriced regardless of where he ends up.



  • @indzan My viewpoint was just the fact of moving to Man Utd would increase his price. Doubt he'll earn any dividends but the market doesn't work on that anyway



  • If he did go to Man U then I doubt he would make the starting 11 very often, so little to no chance of PB. MB even more unlikely. So that makes him an IPD possibility but even then I don't see how he would ever break out of the 30 to 40p range as he has no long term value.

    Suppose he might go up if he gets some goals but I don't really understand the mindset of the 'he scored a goal lets buy loads of him' brigade who push the prices up then IS the player a week later when he don't make the team. An average player with little long term value is still an average player with little long term value even if they have a one off good game and get a couple of goals, just like a brilliant player with lots of future potential is still a brilliant player with lots of future potential even if they have a one off bad game or get rested from the squad for a match.



  • @indzan yes I agree that future dividend returns should be the main factor of a players price but with ipd's being a key factor, you will always see big jumps in any goalscorer, particularly cheaper players. This is not really relying on irrationality, its very predictable. Yes buying a 34 year old free agent is risky but it wouldn't be the worst punt assuming he ends up in a top 5 league.



  • I don't think the man utd factor would really add anything here. It would probably work against him tbh as he'd be less likely to play as regularly as if he went elsewhere.



  • Anyone who buys him is enough stupid, or banking on others being stupid enough to buy also. While the latter will probably make you a few quid as people are more often than not, stupid, it's not for me.


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