The Times, They Are A-Changing



  • As most will be aware, there is level of volatility on FI at the moment that has not really been seen before, predominantly fuelled by IPD chasing (and other traders preying on IPD chasers).
    Personally, I'm uncomfortable with it but that's because I'm a long-term trader at heart, who enjoyed sitting back and watching my sound investments steadily grow.
    But there are obviously thousands of people who are loving it right now and making good money day-trading cheap players, so I'm remaining neutral in my assessment of things. What doesn't work for some does work for others.

    A few experienced traders are assuming this "flipping" craze will blow over. For selfish reasons I would hope they are right but I am preparing for the fact that this is not just a fad but is here to stay. Why? A few reasons...

    1. Marketing:

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    The big marketing push (tv/radio/shirt sponsors etc) by FI has been a tremendous success in bringing in thousands of new users but it's clearly tipped the balance and it is safe to assume that the majority of new users are "traditional gamblers"...

    1. User-base:

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    The thing with gamblers is, they are easily addicted (as I am to FI!) and they are optmistic - thinking they will win, no matter how many times they have lost previously. For example, a failed flip on Jason Denayer last night has made him the biggest faller today, which suggests people have instant sold to reinvest in tonight's games ("Never mind the loss on Denayer, tonight I'll get lucky and win it all back in the Lille game!"). It's not just about the money either with gamblers, it's the thrill of being a winner/being right. And there are now more chances than ever for these "gamblers" to prove themselves...

    1. Opportunity:

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    During the international breaks usually, we'd get 2 weeks of treble MB - if this was the case next week, I suspect many of the traditional gamblers would get bored with no "action" and leave the platform. Then we'd see a return to a more stable investment-based platform. However, Football Index have now taken the surprising step of allowing international European Qualifiers to earn PB and IPDs (although when you imagine the amount of commission that are currently earning then it's not surprising at all).
    So, the opportunities for traditional gamblers to feed their habit are now uninterrupted. A couple of quotes from Matthew McConaughey in 'The Wolf of Wall Street' spring to mind:

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    "...what do you do? You get another brilliant idea, a special idea. Another situation, another stock to reinvest his earnings and then some. And he will, every single time. Cause they’re fucking addicted. And then you just keep doing this, again, and again, and again."

    "Keep the client on the Ferris Wheel, and it goes, the park is open twenty-four-seven, three-six-five. Every decade, every Goddamn century. That’s it. Name of the game." ('Mark Hanna')

    Conclusion: As I've mentioned on another thread, I've reluctantly got involved in this day-trading/flipping practice over the last couple of days 😏. Only allocating around 12% of my overall portfolio value (so far) but I'm already eyeing up the weaker players in my 'medium-term holds' section for a potential cull to up my day-trading value to nearer 50%. This is not what I signed up to FI for but, sadly, my old gambling cravings have resurfaced. And that's what FI want, it makes absolute business sense for them. And I can't begrudge them that.

    My intention is to give this day-trading a few more weeks and see how it works out. If I am successful then I'll continue but if not, I'll sell all the short term holds, top up my long term holds and then self-exclude from FI until Christmas 🎅🏻.



  • I have a port set up for the long term and I am not seeing the drops that people are talking about. My biggest drop since season started has been 0.26% and easily surpassed during the week.

    I also don't think we can put all the blame on the new users. General consensus is that new users are mass buying game players to flip.
    I disagree. I think old users are buying up the players well in advance and then selling on game day for big profits and it is this selling that is causing the drops.



  • I welcome the IPD buzz as a medium term trader and it also benifits the long term trader.. I have noticed on the spikes they never return to where they started which over time pushs prices higher for medium to long term traders.. The platform is growing and there will be much volitilty in the future.. Strap yourself in for the ride.. Remember its only money and not the end of the world so keep trading as opposed to gambling



  • After looking more closely at my portfolio it’s probably only Brewster and alcacer who have made 85% of my losses, most of my big players are down a little but most had massive gains start to mid August. I wouldn’t even be moaning In that other thread if I didn’t have them two.

    I’m not gonna panick and change my portfolio like urself.

    However if the big players stagnated or slowly made losses I’d just leave then rejoin if things changed.



  • @MrWh1te said in The Times, They Are A-Changing:

    I disagree. I think old users are buying up the players well in advance and then selling on game day for big profits and it is this selling that is causing the drops.

    Yes, my very first sentence referenced experienced users doing this ("traders preying on IPD chasers") so we agree on that.
    But existing users getting embroiled in this current trend only serves to accelerate it.
    If you are lucky and your long-term portfolio is still growing steadily then fair play but mine has been flat/falling slightly - in times where the footie is growing significantly on an almost daily basis, this also prompted my need to adapt



  • @ScouseSte
    That is a shame you are dropping.

    Is it your port as a whole or just one or two players causing it?



  • @MrWh1te

    As a whole.

    Players like;

    Foden (Long term hold but getting no game time so the impatient sell)

    Salah (looking sharp as hell, scored 3 in 3 Prem games, dropped from 5.05 to 4.92 since Sat)

    Hazard (injury)

    Mbappe (SOLD NOW but obviously dropped a lot with the injury)

    Sterling (dropped despite scoring at the weekend and with internationals coming up!)

    Pogba (volatile hold anyway so this is expected until 2nd sept)

    Pulisic (dropped a fair bit despite assisting at the weekend)



  • @ScouseSte good post. I think a lot of it is experienced traders as @MrWh1te and yourself have said. They have spotted a pattern and found a way to win by getting in early and selling out before the game starts which is relatively risk free. But this will slow down in my opinion due to people getting burnt.



  • The top 200 are just going to be better and better value as people switch to short term. Won't be long before the trend changes to the big players again in my opinion. Biggest winner out of this is F.I



  • @Jonah said in The Times, They Are A-Changing:

    @ScouseSte good post. I think a lot of it is experienced traders as @MrWh1te and yourself have said. They have spotted a pattern and found a way to win by getting in early and selling out before the game starts which is relatively risk free. But this will slow down in my opinion due to people getting burnt.

    This absolutely won’t last because the last ones in are losing and they won’t continue, which will leave the early buyers with nobody coming in to give them their profit.



  • @Mr-Random-number said in The Times, They Are A-Changing:

    After looking more closely at my portfolio it’s probably only Brewster and alcacer who have made 85% of my losses, most of my big players are down a little but most had massive gains start to mid August. I wouldn’t even be moaning In that other thread if I didn’t have them two.

    I’m not gonna panick and change my portfolio like urself.

    However if the big players stagnated or slowly made losses I’d just leave then rejoin if things changed.

    It's not so much a panic, it's more an adaptation to how I perceive the market changing.
    And I'm hoping to be proved wrong so I can return to my more sedate, long-term investment strategy



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in The Times, They Are A-Changing:

    This absolutely won’t last because the last ones in are losing and they won’t continue, which will leave the early buyers with nobody coming in to give them their profit.

    Yep - it's a trend just like numerous other trends that have come and gone. The edge doesn't last for long because too many people follow and then the edge disappears and so we move on to the next trend.



  • @ScouseSte said in The Times, They Are A-Changing:

    @MrWh1te

    As a whole.

    Players like;

    Foden (Long term hold but getting no game time so the impatient sell)

    Salah (looking sharp as hell, scored 3 in 3 Prem games, dropped from 5.05 to 4.92 since Sat)

    Hazard (injury)

    Mbappe (SOLD NOW but obviously dropped a lot with the injury)

    Sterling (dropped despite scoring at the weekend and with internationals coming up!)

    Pogba (volatile hold anyway so this is expected until 2nd sept)

    Pulisic (dropped a fair bit despite assisting at the weekend)

    Hmm I have;
    Salah and not worried at all
    Hazard and a bit worried but holding (and have very few of him, for a challenge I was doing)
    Sterling and time to top up, future king
    Pulisic and not worried

    I tend not to follow trends and just keep a solid port, I don't have time to chase profits.
    I think you may have made a mistake selling mbappe though. People don't get it but mathematically it is always almost better to hold than sell and reinvest, if a player is to go back up.



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in The Times, They Are A-Changing:

    @Jonah said in The Times, They Are A-Changing:

    @ScouseSte good post. I think a lot of it is experienced traders as @MrWh1te and yourself have said. They have spotted a pattern and found a way to win by getting in early and selling out before the game starts which is relatively risk free. But this will slow down in my opinion due to people getting burnt.

    This absolutely won’t last because the last ones in are losing and they won’t continue, which will leave the early buyers with nobody coming in to give them their profit.

    That's the assumption. But as I said in the original post, a gambler doesn't quit. I know because I was / am one.



  • I just think its more users.

    We all instant sold like mad when we first started.

    It takes trust to hold your players when they drop but you only get it after experience.



  • @MrWh1te

    With Mbappe, I was nicely in profit and the injury just gave me the nod to finally sell after being disheartened with his CURRENT PB/MB potential



  • @ScouseSte
    If you don't feel his price will go back up or he was overpriced then yes, selling is correct of c.



  • @ScouseSte Surely they would at least change tactics? What sort of twat would just carry on with the same losing technique?



  • @Tom77 said in The Times, They Are A-Changing:

    I just think its more users.

    We all instant sold like mad when we first started.

    It takes trust to hold your players when they drop but you only get it after experience.

    Yea this ain't my first rodeo Tom 😂. I have only sold Mbappe, who I had nearly the largest amount of capital invested in, for a modest profit.

    With the 4/5 players I now hold with the proceeds, I intend to flip every 30 days or less, in an effort to make up any shortfall in the existing long-term holds I am experienced enough to trust in, despite them dropping 😉



  • @ScouseSte said in The Times, They Are A-Changing:

    @Tom77 said in The Times, They Are A-Changing:

    I just think its more users.

    We all instant sold like mad when we first started.

    It takes trust to hold your players when they drop but you only get it after experience.

    Yea this ain't my first rodeo Tom 😂. I have only sold Mbappe, who I had nearly the largest amount of capital invested in, for a modest profit.

    With the 4/5 players I now hold with the proceeds, I intend to flip every 30 days or less, in an effort to make up any shortfall in the existing long-term holds I am experienced enough to trust in, despite them dropping 😉

    I didn't mean you mate, traders on here for a few months, they must get a bit shell shocked with all the selling and get caught up in it.
    Obvs instant sell has a very good place but it’s knowing how to use it.


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