How much of fi is luck?



  • When you're portfolio is down it's 100% (bad) luck, when your portfolio is rocketing it's 100% pure skill!



  • Depends what you call luck... Comparing it to poker is dodgy ground... I understand what you mean... But in FI there is no 'right choice' poker comes with defined odds cos we know how many cards are in the deck and what combinations are possible. In football there is no guarantee. You can look at the next 30 days fixtures of a 20p keeper and think they will get a few cleansheets... But its just your perception... Not a right or wrong. There's a tonne of luck involved in every game, every goal, every training session... Where's the deflection going? Who's been injured by a freak accident?

    Then again this is a gambling market and a talent to read the market will help beat the market. So i personally think there is a fair amount of skill too.



  • Skill...... Pure skill...... & Timing

    Skill ⚽ & Timing 🕖

    Luckily, I have an abundance of both.



  • For FI I'd say your luck increases with patience.

    I've held Jon Joe Kenny since July at 43p, my 'luck' came in yesterday.



  • There’s no luck in planning for cycle’s.
    FI has lots of them.



  • @Tom77 this is true, its learning to read the cycles and work out when to jump onboard. I think those looking for short term gains need some luck. Those relying on long term investment can rely on skill.



  • @Tom7471 The more you understand the platform, the more your ‘good luck’ increases



  • Obviously luck plays a big part. If one of your biggest holds got a career ending injury or dies tomorrow then suddenly you lose every penny of your investment if your not quick enough to quick sell.

    No amount of research or skill can prevent things like that happening. Think of the traders who had invested heavy in Salah who tragically died.



  • @Pagey74 They got there money back ;p



  • Overall its a combination of skill, good and bad luck the reasons for each of these options has already been highlighted so if I was to make an educated guess based on 6 months trading I would say.

    Skill (research) . 60%
    Good luck 20%
    Bad luck 20%

    The current trend of same day flips may change those figures if it continues but I am sure it is just a trend as you need a lot more luck than skill to pull that off.



  • @Pagey74 said in How much of fi is luck?:

    Obviously luck plays a big part. If one of your biggest holds got a career ending injury or dies tomorrow then suddenly you lose every penny of your investment if your not quick enough to quick sell.

    No amount of research or skill can prevent things like that happening. Think of the traders who had invested heavy in Salah who tragically died.

    Okay, we're going into extremes there a little bit. And frankly, very, very bad luck will fuck anyone.

    Luck plays a part, particularly in timing. But I disagree patience brings luck. Imagine having been on Emiliano Sala for a year, he gets his move to the Prem and you're patient enough to see what form he hits?! (Again, another extreme but you get the point)



  • @MrWh1te Did they? How? Why?



  • @Pagey74 because fi froze the player then refunded people



  • @MrWh1te That was very kind of them. So if someone dies then this will happen on every occasion?



  • @Pagey74 doubtful, they didn't need to do it but chose to. Doubt they would make a habit of it



  • @MrWh1te Is that what happened?

    Nice to know.



  • Great insight guys. I believe the control we have on the players we buy and sell gives us a lot of control. When I bought Reece James at 1.09 when he got a nasty injury the fact he is now 1.86 is just mad thinking that he hasn't done anything on the field and still won't for another couple of weeks. I have had a lot of injuries recently but as annoying as they are, long term they are not a problem at all to my portfolio. I believe that the mistakes I make are a much bigger dent in my profits than luck. Just my opinion though.



  • @Dan-The-Man said in How much of fi is luck?:

    @MrWh1te Is that what happened?

    Nice to know.

    I think a lot of it came down to people having just piled in because of his move to England and them complaining. No leg to stand on really, it's gambling. FI bent over backwards I think but with all the nonsense a bit of good press must be nice!



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