The Forum: For medium/long term traders only?



  • I've been on the Forum quite a bit over the last week or two, looking for advice and reassurance given the recent downward trend in my portfolio. Several weeks ago my investment totalled £2500 and my portfolio was sat at £3000. Since then I have invested another £300 to take my total investment up to £2800 but my portfolio is now at £3260.

    I am not overly concerned and remain optimistic on how my portfolio will do over the course of the season. That being said, I am tempted to incorporate some short term strategies into my approach (I have taken a punt on 3 players with Euro 2020 qualifiers). However, during this time it strikes me that the majority of those posting here seem to be traders with a medium/long term strategy. My question is where are the short term strategists that are causing the volatile fluctuations in the market place? Do they not comment/offer advice here in fear of being rebuked by the majority or are they keeping the secrets of their success/failure to themselves?

    Finally, do we think the current trend of very short term trading is here to stay or is it just a phase? If the trend continues then it it certainly makes me wonder if I need to change my approach too.



  • @Vaughany as for where the short term traders are Ive wondered the same. But as for current trends being here to stay, I think not. Were in probably the most sustained downward spiral I've seen, albeit still only about 8 days. Dips are generally followed by a boom, and just looking at the big names in my port that have dropped during this phase, namely pog, sterling, kane, rashford, messi, even ronaldo, vvd and sancho a little bit, I think when the boom does come, these are the players who will see the big rises.

    I think a lot of ppl are saying the short term flippers are new traders, but from where I'm standing, it seems that if this was the case, the flips would be fuelled by new money, why then the dips in the big names? I think a lot of established traders have been drawn in, and fuelled the flipping by freeing up cash from big name players. Matter of time before the likes of those players I've named start to get the money again. Sooner the better but I think theres a boom coming. I've lost over 2% this week so hope I'm correct



  • I was always a medium to long term trader but more recently I have adapted to the market which seems to be better for short time trades. I assume this is due to the new users who seem to be using the platform for quick returns.

    I've kept my medium/long term players but invested another £1k to have in my balance. My approach is to be at the buy screen for three players ready to click buy for when they score. For example, I had 300 mount on my mobile, 300 Abraham on my work phone and 300 Pulisic on my laptop. The minute Abraham scored I clicked buy and he flew in value. Then depending on how I see their future growth I will either hold or flip within minutes to make a tidy profit. Again this is all about timing and you could get burned if not quick enough.



  • @Vaughany you make some very good points it does seem like none of the short term traders are on the forum or at least not vocal. I suspect though that the majority of them are new and may not even know about the forum though.

    It seems that the market is now divided between two categories, the gamblers and the investors. The investors are looking for medium to long term gains and are happy to invest larger sums of money that they hope will steadily grow. The gamblers are looking to invest smaller amounts of money but they are just looking for quick wins and maybe they aren't bothered if they lose out as the alternative is sticking money on an acca or individual bets.

    Obvisouly that is just my point of view and my assessment of the current market but I could be wrong Haha. It is yet to be seen whether this is just a phase or not though or maybe the gamblers are here to stay. I think regardless of that you can still trade profitably with the medium to long term in mind you just have to be prepared for a more volatile market.

    From my experience this gamblers mentality is new around here and the levels of volatility have increased to never before seen heights as a result. However, once the market and the more experienced traders adjust to this and get used to it I'm sure the gamblers habits will get exploited which may eventually drive them away. Whether that is a good or bad thing though I'm not sure



  • You need to keep in a mind the £300k port that has sold up, finishing at the weekend I believe. Assuming that has been MS over the past week+ - it will explain a portion of the drop for sure. If the overall market has not increased by the end of Sept - then it's time to rethink things IMO.



  • I also think there's been some money coming out in anticipation of some kind of bonus later this month.



  • @Vaughany good question. In my opinion the resent trend has been triggered off by your typical bet365,Betsy ect gambler placing a bet on a player they think will play well score ect and once in profit on a spike selling
    up and on to the next.
    In seeing this trend more experienced traders are looking further ahead and targeting certain games and buying early hoping to catch the CA leading up to that game and on the day of the game selling up before it kicks off because we have seen how dramatic the dips can be if said player doesn't do well.
    I think this will settle down if these new users start to lose. That's the thing I have downsized some of my larger holds to have a play around and see if I can make money day trading and it ain't easy, what you make on one you can quite easy loose what you made and more on another.
    Unless I'm just completely useless at this and they know something I don't i think this trend will tail off.
    I have spent all weekend with all sorts of notifications and apps on the go and struggled to make a few quid and also been lumbered with players I don't intend to keep but are down a few penny's . Not being a fan of ISing players due to large commission's to pay I now have money tied up in these players.
    So in conclusion I think it isn't a substanable strategy because I think these gamblers will want more and want to win and won't like losing who does, I'm sure some have made good money doing this but there will be a lot more that haven't as in traditional gambling there is only one winner and in this case it's FI so I do think this volitility will reside but in the meantime chances are there to buy in the dips and hopefully make money that way.. interesting times ahead.



  • @Vaughany

    I play with long term, medium and short term strategies. Short term is often high risk, high reward but you can still be sensible.

    Look at the fixtures 2-3 weeks from now and find the early games. The ones before 2pm.

    Those matches have the highest chance of big rises because a player could achieve a huge PB score before the deadline for PB.

    So... for example... Liverpool vs Newcastle on Saturday the 14th, is at 12:30. Someone like Mane, Van Dijk or Salah, could have the PB locked up before the 2pm matches even start.

    More importantly though... over the next 2 weeks, more and more people will become aware of the fixture and start buying into those players. So even before kick off, some players in those teams will see a decent rise.

    This works better on days where there are fewer matches or more high profile matches, so that Liverpool example isn't ideal. Madrid are also playing that same day at 12:00, so... the Madrid match will be finished before the 2pm deadline. Say Ramos bangs a penalty in and keeps a clean sheet... happy days. Not only would he see the surge from the realisation that a defender takes pens, we'd see the masses jump on to get the match dividends + 2p goal dividends. So the rise could be really good.

    Now... obviously if you look further ahead, you can get in earlier... and on days with less matches but then the further ahead you look, the higher the risk that a player picks up an injury or loses their current run of form. So you need to find the sweet spot.



  • I do think the short term trading affects are mainly due to experienced members rather than new members. Its being done with a lot of understanding of the platform for large amounts of new users to be to blame. I gave it a try but the more you watch price movements players are being bought weeks in advance and being sold back to the more gambling minded folk on matchday or after a goal. At first you would see rises in excess of 30p after one goal but now the rises are more modest and i feel thats down to market selling slowing the growth because experienced members are taking advantage of the IPD culture. Its smart trading if you can be patient with it but also strikes me as quite risky as its harder to tell how stable a players price is because you dont know how long ago the flipper bought into the player for flipping

    Hope this makes sense but its less about football and more about understanding the nature of gamblers



  • @Dan-The-Man said in The Forum: For medium/long term traders only?:

    @Vaughany

    I play with long term, medium and short term strategies. Short term is often high risk, high reward but you can still be sensible.

    Look at the fixtures 2-3 weeks from now and find the early games. The ones before 2pm.

    Those matches have the highest chance of big rises because a player could achieve a huge PB score before the deadline for PB.

    So... for example... Liverpool vs Newcastle on Saturday the 14th, is at 12:30. Someone like Mane, Van Dijk or Salah, could have the PB locked up before the 2pm matches even start.

    More importantly though... over the next 2 weeks, more and more people will become aware of the fixture and start buying into those players. So even before kick off, some players in those teams will see a decent rise.

    This works better on days where there are fewer matches or more high profile matches, so that Liverpool example isn't ideal. Madrid are also playing that same day at 12:00, so... the Madrid match will be finished before the 2pm deadline. Say Ramos bangs a penalty in and keeps a clean sheet... happy days. Not only would he see the surge from the realisation that a defender takes pens, we'd see the masses jump on to get the match dividends + 2p goal dividends. So the rise could be really good.

    Now... obviously if you look further ahead, you can get in earlier... and on days with less matches but then the further ahead you look, the higher the risk that a player picks up an injury or loses their current run of form. So you need to find the sweet spot.

    This is exactly what i was trying to explain 👍



  • I would say I am currently a short term trader with a longer term strategy. At the moment, most of my holds are short term. Everyone calls it a volatile time, but to me it's not volatile as it's very predictable.

    I am currently cashing out on players when they are 20% to 50% up, which at the moment means they have scored a goal. I then reinvest in the next group of fixtures and I have seen quick profit off it.

    At the moment, I am withdrawing some funds as the intention is to exploit this entirely predictable short term gain by just being a few game weeks ahead of what I think of new users, to get a reduced value portfolio, but it to be made entirely of profit, then I will start reinvesting in long term players with no risk(and hopefully fi will have sorted out some new players by then!).

    I was about 20% up before the new season started, and now am just under 50% up from doing this. It isn't going to last forever, so am trying to get risk free quickly.

    It's not always going to work but at the moment the drop from a player not scoring is less than the rise of a player scoring(mostly) and as long as you are doing it with the small spread players.

    Back a player you expect to score(so I had Berardi yesterday) , wait til half time and see the rise, sell before the second half starts, wait for the fall as people cash in, buy back in at a lower price and collect the ipds.

    A lot of the patterns I am seeing are people buying into a player whose 1st half pb scores look like they might win their position, which they then cash out of if they don't start the 1st 20 minutes of the second half the same way.

    Having said that, can't wait til I am pumping this profit into arp and joao filipe!


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