Advice on when to sell up (% rise)



  • Can any experienced traders advise when might be a good time to sell a player? Is there a % increase threshold that, once reached, you sell up? If so, is this a steadfast rule that you stick to even if you believe the player may still rise further?

    I joined in April and although I see myself as a medium/long term trader several of the players I have invested in have risen by 25/30%. I think they may rise further between now and the end of the season but I wonder if I should sell up and reinvest the funds or keep them.



  • @Vaughany

    Forget that you own them.

    Then ask, would you buy them at their current price or is there a better place to put that money.

    It's as simple as that.



  • Different rates for different price ranges.

    If you buy a 30p player & he goes to 45p you have made 50% profit.

    If you buy a £7 player & are waiting for a 50% increase, you may be waiting a while. You may be happy with a £1 increase which equates to about 14% increase.

    Try & set a target you are happy with before you buy, & stick to it 👍



  • @Ericali

    Sorry dude but that's terrible advice.

    Well meaning but outright shockingly bad advice lol.

    If Warren Buffett did that with Coke, he'd be tens of billions of dollars down right now.

    Your personal history with a player is irrelevant when making the decision. You can't let your interaction with a player, cloud your judgement on what their future price should be.



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Advice on when to sell up (% rise):

    @Ericali

    Sorry dude but that's terrible advice.

    Well meaning but outright shockingly bad advice lol.

    If Warren Buffett did that with Coke, he'd be tens of billions of dollars down right now.

    Your personal history with a player is irrelevant when making the decision. You can't let your interaction with a player, cloud your judgement on what their future price should be.

    That strategy hasn't done me any harm. I'm hovering around the 100% mark for 9 months trading.

    I'll carry on as I am. 😉👍



  • @Ericali

    Well, in fairness that's significantly better than my 50% in a similar time period. So maybe I should bow to your superiority. Let me just ask you this question.

    You and I are both evaluating a player. One of us is 20% up on him, one of us hasn't bought in yet. Should we buy or sell him?



  • @Dan-The-Man depends what price he was bought at.

    A 60p player can go to 80p with a single goal on a televised match.

    That's a 33% increase.



  • @Ericali

    Using your logic of picking a player, setting a target and sticking to it, would suggest that it's correct for one person to get out and simultaneously correct for someone else to get in, and the deciding factor is... the traders personal history.

    How can a player be a good buy and a bad buy at the same time?

    Surely, a player is either a good buy going forward or a bad buy?



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Advice on when to sell up (% rise):

    @Ericali

    Using your logic of picking a player, setting a target and sticking to it, would suggest that it's correct for one person to get out and simultaneously correct for someone else to get in. How can a player be a ood buy and a bad buy at the same time?

    Surely, a player is either a good buy going forward or a bad buy?

    Not quite.

    Depends on the length of time the buyer is willing to hold.

    I could by happy with a 50% rise & off I go.

    The person who buys after I sell could still get a 50% rise, but may have to wait 6 months for it, rather than me waiting substantially less time for my 50%.

    The end result is the same - they are both good buys.



  • Kolarov is a good example.

    I bought at 40p & was banging the drum to the forum.

    I sold at 61p. (Got my 50%)

    Last night he was 78p. Still a great buy for those who bought in after I had sold.

    Both buyers are happy. 😎

    But you have to time the exit, as Kolarov has a shelf life.

    But if you bought at 60p, you've still had nearly a 33% rise in a matter of weeks.



  • Interesting differing views! I'd be interested in your thoughts on a situation I'm currently in. I bought Lewandowski at £1.12 before the season started. Now at £1.54. That's a decent profit and I wouldn't be unhappy in cashing out. However, Poland have 2 fixtures coming up and then he's back to Bayern where he'll probably continue to score regularly. What would you do?



  • @Ericali said in Advice on when to sell up (% rise):

    Not quite.

    The person who buys after I sell could still get a 50% rise but may have to wait 6 months for it, rather than me waiting substantially less for my 50%.

    In which case, I'd say your argument isn't the logic behind your advice.

    You're argument is actually that you think you can get that 50% faster with another player.... so logically you've determined the purchase based on where you can get the money faster, not based on weather or not you've owned the player.



  • @Dan-The-Man doesn't everyone do this? 🤔

    If you saw a goalscorer with a run of easy fixtures would you be tempted to buy now or wait for the moment to pass?

    That's my personal trading strategy.

    Others are happy to ignore the market & plan ahead & buy for a 2-3 year hold.



  • I don't mind paying commission on a winning trade.

    Others think comission is the devil 😈 incarnate.



  • @Ericali said in Advice on when to sell up (% rise):

    @Dan-The-Man doesn't everyone do this? 🤔

    I think we're massively in agreement on the principle of putting your money where it's going to earn the fastest profits.

    Your advice on picking a target and sticking to it, seems counter to that principle though.

    Surely you only get out when you see a better opportunity?



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Advice on when to sell up (% rise):

    @Ericali said in Advice on when to sell up (% rise):

    @Dan-The-Man doesn't everyone do this? 🤔

    I think we're massively in agreement on the principle of putting your money where it's going to earn the fastest profits.

    Your advice on picking a target and sticking to it, seems counter to that principle though.

    Surely you only get out when you see a better opportunity?

    You have identified the "target" because you expect the market to react in a certain way.

    You don't have to specifically get out of one target to go into another. If you have a cash balance you can be in multiple targets at once.



  • @Ericali said in Advice on when to sell up (% rise):

    You have identified the "target" because you expect the market to react in a certain way.

    Sure, and time has passed, so now you evaluate the player again then make a fresh decision.

    I don't think you'd say... I set a target of 30%, I've hit that, therefore I must leave , which is what your original advice was calling for.



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Advice on when to sell up (% rise):

    @Ericali said in Advice on when to sell up (% rise):

    You have identified the "target" because you expect the market to react in a certain way.

    Sure, and time has passed, so now you evaluate the player again then make a fresh decision.

    I don't think you'd say... I set a target of 30%, I've hit that, therefore I must leave , which is what your original advice was calling for.

    That's exactly what I'm saying. 👍

    Who cares if he rises again after I've sold? I don't....

    As long as my next target rises too. If he doesn't, I'll hold until he does.

    He eventually will, or I wouldn't (or shouldn't) have identified him as a target.

    Then sell when he does.



  • @Vaughany how many shares do you have? If you have say 100, maybe market sell 50 of them, bank some profit and gamble with the other ones hoping he does well in the qualifiers.



  • @Ericali

    Right, cool... we're in agreement. Congrats on that 100% return BTW. It's amazing what can be achieved on here.

    @Vaughany
    You need to evaluate the risk, reward, speed of expected return of each player on the market then pick the player who gives you the safest, most significant return at the fastest rate.

    Forget that you own Lewendowski or that you're up 42p on him. It's like flipping a coin, just because you just flipped heads, it doesn't impact what your next flip will be. Is he the best place to put your money or can you see a better place?



  • @matt4567

    1. I'm thinking of holding them until he gets a spike and then maybe sell 75. If he gets a goal in the next 2 games for Poland then he should see a rise.

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