A red lining market?

  • Just interested to hear any thoughts on the current market and whether it really needs a dividend increase to push on? Will it push on anyway? How long do people think it will be until an increase is announced? If and when, will they boost all 3 areas equally or will certain areas be prioritised? On recent forum evidence I am assuming that we generally want an increase to pb and mb, the core of the market to readdress the balance back from short term trading?

  • Just to add, I have random shots of my account and within a week or so of the last dividend increase announcement, ‘the footie’ was 67,000 and is now 119,000. However, the dividend increase had been anticipated from the first share split announcement last November. At which time ‘the footie’ was 47,000.

  • Simply put, with the recent buy and flip cheap player mentality of most traders, dividends will have to increase to maintain FI core base of users.

    As a test I bought 1200 shares in a ‘certain’ player a week ago who is utter, utter shite and made over 58% profit on him in a week. This has to be addressed and quickly. Media dividends are the key to sustainable growth with the top players. Will FI do this? I believe they won’t as they are making a killing on the buy and flip current trend.

  • Another key strategy FI NEED to get on with is opening the index to another country or 2. I’m hoping Cyprus and Spain, as I spend a lot of time in both countries ;)

  • IPD flipping vs long term MB holding is the key battleground at the moment and represents an important decision for FI. They are currently making a mint off IPD flipping while nobody is flipping MB stalwarts so they are naturally favouring IPDs (introducing them for Euro quals for example). However, there is so much money tied up in MB players by big investors. If FI continue to favour IPDs without increasing MB divs will these guys and gals move their money from MB players to play the IPD market? I don't think they will, so they'll just take the money out and leave the platform. FI surely don't want this either so they have to find a balance.

  • You can hold an ipd player for 2 months if you want, take the divs during 30 days and wait until a spike and market sell..........

  • @Specksynder Part of the problem is how do you find a balance for greed? If Pogba was to return the same dividends as last year he would still be returning 30% + in divs which is a an amazing return that not so long ago most people were happy with. But people are now chasing the quicker and bigger returns in an attempt to get rich quick - but this also comes with bigger risks and many will fail/lose chasing this.
    The market needs both short-term and long-term traders to work but many of the long-term traders aren't as long term as they think they are when they have a few weeks of slightly falling prices.
    Im confident there will be a div increase but I don't think it will be until the New Year - in the meantime the market needs to figure itself out.

  • @Specksynder agreed. Feels like FI at a bit of a crossroads right now. I'm struggling to see where the value is. No plans to leave but equally not planning to invest more (though would be tempted if birthday bonus). They need to consider a dividend increase or the top 50 will continue to stagnate / drop.

  • Get rid of IPD's or have a block on selling a player for a set period after purchase.

  • @NewUser275766 said in A red lining market?:

    Get rid of IPD's or have a block on selling a player for a set period after purchase.

    Will never work - you'll just kill FI's incomes and they need to be profitable too.

  • Funny how once again it's all the people who are struggling to make money moaning about a dividend increase because they cant be arsed to do some research and just want to sit on a portfolio and cream it in.

    We'd all love a dividend increase but my portfolio is doing just fine thanks. We have to adapt to meet the current market, not always expect the market to change to meet our requirements.

  • @Specksynder FI must be making great money off IPD flips for sure, but the money tied up in MB players must also play a huge part in FI's business model. It allows them to hold a huge amount of cash, which they must be investing to grow it further.

    I agree that if FI did really tilt the market in favour of IPDs then a lot of MB traders would pull out. I would probably be one of them, though i have a reasonable spread off different types of players in my port, but i'm a long term trader and wouldn't want the volatility we would see if the short-term game became even more dominant.

    I think it's most likely that if we see a dividend increase, it will be more or less across the board equally distributed between MB/PB and IPDs. The top end will rise again as the market is compressing at the moment, and if you hold the top players for the long term, you just have to ride out the dips because the increases, when they come (and they do come, just usually in dramatic and short bursts) are usually greater.

  • @Stevo

    I don't think anyone in this thread is moaning. I'm certainly not. We're discussing where we think FI is at the moment. You've just come in and added nothing to a conversation.

  • I dividend increase at the top end would be good all round, money would come out of the cheaper players as people chase the best pb players. This would then make the cheap ipd players excellent value 👍

  • @Stevo Fair enough mate, and i'm glad that you're doing well, but unless dividends roughly keep up with market growth, then everything that FI is built on would eventually collapse, because it would just become a pyramid with no underlying value. A dividend increase is in the interests of the entire market and all traders, not just those who are seeing their portfolios struggle at the moment, or those playing the long-term game.

  • IPD dividends had the biggest rises in the SS, so I would hope that the MB/PB dividends would have the biggest rises now.

    Even if it is only an indirect way of raising dividends, such as paying out for top 3 MB every day and top two winners in each PB category on double/triple match days.

  • @Stevo Im definitely not moaning - and im still making profit but enjoy the healthy debate on a dividend increase.

  • @Wotabeast

    Yes that's what I'm saying. They can't afford for all the MB money to disappear but they must be rubbing their hands together with all the commission from IPDs. Personally I think it will be tough to maintain both sides of the coin, short term IPD flipping and MB hoarding, but if I had to predict it I would say that the lure of more IPD short term money will win out.

  • @Hotspur There will come a tipping point where the top 20-50 can't continue to drop relative to the rest of the market - and i believe this will happen even without a dividend increase. I predicted it back in June, when i had seen the top 10 dropping consistently since the share split, while the rest of the market caught up. You could see there would come a point where the top players looked like good value again, and we will get there again - especially perhaps when the CL/EL football kicks in.

    I agree though, a dividend increase would stabilise the market and give it a clear direction of travel.

    I was thinking the other day, why couldn't FI just scale dividends comparative to the size/value of the market? Every 3 or 6 months i think they should have a formula which scales the dividends in relation to the growth in the market. In theory that would be fair for traders and it would focus the market around dividends, which is the thing that gives it underlying value. However, it would harm the potential growth in profitability that i'm sure FI is striving for, so no doubt they wouldn't be keen on the idea.

  • @Stevo not struggling at all - 150% ROI in a year. But not prepared to bet more for the sake of it. And we have all made fixed 3 year bets - so not sure what your issue is with those deciding to wait before realising those bets. There is room for a whole host of strategies on FI and no need to be disparaging to anyone's individual strategy.

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