A red lining market?



  • I know FI have said they wont pay out tiered PB dividends but i think instead of a dividend increase this might be a good move that is still technically a dividend increase. My main reason for thinking this is players age. As players get older people dont want to buy them but in some cases such as Ronaldo or Ramos they will win divs and make it even harder for anyone else to do so. So PB is a lottery but when the higher chance of winning means buyin older players then you push people to buy younger cap players that have very little chance of winning divs while these older players are dominating. So they either need to increase dividends or offer tiered PB to ensure dividend return is factored into an even wider range of players.



  • @Black-wolf said in A red lining market?:

    I know FI have said they wont pay out tiered PB dividends but i think instead of a dividend increase this might be a good move that is still technically a dividend increase. My main reason for thinking this is players age. As players get older people dont want to buy them but in some cases such as Ronaldo or Ramos they will win divs and make it even harder for anyone else to do so. So PB is a lottery but when the higher chance of winning means buyin older players then you push people to buy younger cap players that have very little chance of winning divs while these older players are dominating. So they either need to increase dividends or offer tiered PB to ensure dividend return is factored into an even wider range of players.

    Yes this is my thinking a few posts up. You get some players who get decent dividend scores consistently, but always seem to get usurped by some random who lucks into a 300 score. By giving an extra place on double/triple match days, these players should get a rise in value.



  • @Wotabeast said in A red lining market?:

    I was thinking the other day, why couldn't FI just scale dividends comparative to the size/value of the market? Every 3 or 6 months i think they should have a formula which scales the dividends in relation to the growth in the market. In theory that would be fair for traders and it would focus the market around dividends, which is the thing that gives it underlying value. However, it would harm the potential growth in profitability that i'm sure FI is striving for, so no doubt they wouldn't be keen on the idea.

    I was thinking the same. Maybe tie in with the footieindex. So if the footie index doubles from 100,000 to 200,000, either double the dividends or share split by 2. Imagine the excitement as we approach the next footie index threshold. Once the footie index plateaus out, then there will be no need to SS or multiply dividends



  • @Parvez112333 said in A red lining market?:

    @Wotabeast said in A red lining market?:

    I was thinking the other day, why couldn't FI just scale dividends comparative to the size/value of the market? Every 3 or 6 months i think they should have a formula which scales the dividends in relation to the growth in the market. In theory that would be fair for traders and it would focus the market around dividends, which is the thing that gives it underlying value. However, it would harm the potential growth in profitability that i'm sure FI is striving for, so no doubt they wouldn't be keen on the idea.

    I was thinking the same. Maybe tie in with the footieindex. So if the footie index doubles from 100,000 to 200,000, either double the dividends or share split by 2. Imagine the excitement as we approach the next footie index threshold. Once the footie index plateaus out, then there will be no need to SS or multiply dividends

    Sounds good... But when it plateaus and they start losing traders... Using this model the footie goes down and then the dividends will go down compounding the loss and more customers leave. It would spiral into abyss.

    The roi on guys like neymar and pogba is great compare to isa etc. Their price will go up in time when the new users have burned their fingers a few times and old traders remember how good it is to have a stream of divs.

    Neymar scored for Brazil in his first foray back in the pitch... In a couple games time he will be fully fit and playing and scoring massive pb. He will continue to have mb for his exit of psg. His price will be on the up

    Pogba needs to prove himself again as he's not won mb for days!! And hasn't scored yet to post a big pb score (but has already won pb on a single game night)... Signing a new contract talks... More links to Madrid all season... He will win a lot of mb

    I'm more worried about that bracket between £4-7 (barring pogba) as they don't win enough divs to merit their price. But they are great players at great clubs and will be worth their weight in saffron when we get to knockouts of Europe and then the international tournament.

    Patience essential... Div increase desirable



  • @Vespasian32 That's why i said every 3 or 6 months - i don't think we have seen a decline in the footie over that length of time - it has always jumped up significantly over time. Once you reach the target market cap then i don't think the figure would fluctuate that much - especially as we are talking pennies per share, so once you round up/down, it wouldn't move massively over time unless there was quite a significant shift in the footie.



  • Folks,

    This happens every now and again ... the doubt creeps in, the footie drops for consecutive days, and we all end up on here, feeding the panic.

    I can assure you, as I have done before, everything will be fine.

    I know it's difficult to be calm when you seem to be losing money. The only reason I have no concerns is because I have seen it several times in my time on the index. I panicked the first few times ... 🤷🏼‍♂️

    It's self fulfilling, and when there is doubt, less money is invested. A vicious cycle which in the past, has always been countered by FI making some form of announcement to increase confidence and provide the spark that kicks the market back into action.

    Most users on here will probably experience a couple weeks of negative activity ... in the run up to some form of birthday announcement by FI.

    Be patient.

    Keep calm and listen to Idles. 😉



  • A typical month in the world of FI
    Days 1-6 - Prices start dropping the natives begin the get restless
    Days 7-12 - Prices continue to drop and the natives start panicking that the end is nigh and Adam Cole is worse than Hitler
    Days 13-18 Things start to stabilise and the panic merchants go quiet.
    Days 19-30. Its boom time baby and we're all going to be millionaires

    rinse and repeat.



  • @johnboywalker You’re absolutely right but this thread didn’t originate from panic. I was just interested to hear peoples thoughts on dividends at this juncture of the Football Index journey and whether the market has overgrown dividends, which I think it’s difficult to say it hasn’t and which part of the market people would like to see any potential rises put into.



  • @Timothee-Atouba

    Apologies mate, I wasn't inferring that you were the instigator of mass panic. 🤣 This thread is an interesting and worthwhile read.

    I was just throwing my opinion into the mix about the sense of unrest I'm picking up amongst the natives (without creating a new topic).

    It's definitely not as bad as I've seen it previously, but I'm getting the feeling that the usual shouts of 'iceberg right ahead' will be at full volume in the not too distant future.



  • Im a new user from June, personally in my situation.
    Maybe the wrong time of season.
    New pb matrix,champions league, European qualifiers, europa, new IPO's....

    I'm not a large investor so
    MB holding Pogba and Neymar etc...at £7 + was daunting to just jump on the train, without fully learning and understanding the platform...they maybe great MB returnees but unless you hold 50+ futures....it doesn't seem worth it against risk of losing money on spread if something happens.
    Why have pogba...
    Rooney train come Dec @60p all aboard.

    I Did PB homework and bought into players supposedly good for PB returns as a cheaper option....got fingers burned after the PB matrix changed as some players were still guaranteed a chance but it opened it up to others and my picks dropped quicker than a grannies pair of knickers at a Tom Jones concert...
    Ryan Fraser for example
    Pulisic
    Kept Parejo 👍

    I then started ipds chasing as to boost my numbers up....got burned

    I think to many things in a short space of time has made it crazy......

    Like myself I think alot of new investors have been caught out and panicked chased the green from red..

    I just think trying to get MB will be as hard as PB... to many to choose from now its opening up to the whole of the index...and Pog,and Neymar wont be sustainable as before therefore newbies aren't willing to invest in them until we've seen..



  • @Doug-s MB hasn't quite opened up to the index yet. Are they having a re-think? I still think the big boys will win MB the most but now with fewer triple media days this season are they re-thinking that it's not a good idea to open up MB to all.



  • @Sol said in A red lining market?:

    Simply put, with the recent buy and flip cheap player mentality of most traders, dividends will have to increase to maintain FI core base of users.

    As a test I bought 1200 shares in a ‘certain’ player a week ago who is utter, utter shite and made over 58% profit on him in a week. This has to be addressed and quickly. Media dividends are the key to sustainable growth with the top players. Will FI do this? I believe they won’t as they are making a killing on the buy and flip current trend.

    Agreed. I know I am considering selling up most of my port, and I know another decent sized trader is thinking the same due to concerns on hold returns and growth of the top end. The core of the product, which attracted me is the opposite to match day betting, but it currently feels it is going that way. Only a dividend increase to pb and mb will keep it on track. I don't think they will ever compete with bookies on match day betting.

    A lot of people on here, twitter and Facebook seem obsessessed with getting new people to join, and I understand that's great for the whole market, but the clear desperation in some people for new people to join (offering to buy tshirts to wear as free adverts) has made me worry that lots are totally ignoring long term trading, and just chasing cap app and ipds.

    I try many strategies, can't say there is one best way, each to their own.
    I have a very diverse port, so haven't felt a big drop in ages, so it's not a factor.
    But its the core of the product I'm worried is disappearing which will lead to a core of traders leaving, then it's just short term gambling.

    Too many offers and changes though, lead traders to always second guessing what is coming next. Lots will be holding back deposits til the next bonus. Until they stop doing so many tweaks, the market won't even settle into an organic stride/cycle.



  • @C-Money forgot about the media triple days,
    I'm surprised they didn't do double media on international games, as normal mb player might not pick it up.
    I thought October it was opening up to all? If it doesn't then jumping onto MB would be easier.
    I think if it opens up big pogba and neymar holders might lose out as no new investors until other MB players rise to a similar level...
    I'd rather have a loss on 500 Rooney's @58p
    Than 500 Neymar @£7+..

    Instead of increasing Dividends as again it's a needle in a haystack....

    Why not introduce the dividends for each
    PB league.....
    Def,mid,forward, star player in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, England



  • I think some large traders who are Neymar, Pogba heavy in their ports are fed up because they can no longer sit back, do nothing and see the double delight of their dividends rolling in whilst their favourite holds move in an ever upwards trajectory.

    Just because someone's port full of pricier players isn't doing well doesn't mean FI has to do something(although any divs rise is course always welcome)maybe it means the user has to adapt their own strategy somewhat to match the market: this isn't free money tree.

    Prices rocketed for certain players pre share spilt and are only just starting to even out. When this has happened I think premium players will rise again. Until then the choices for these holders are to wait or adapt.



  • @Westy Very good post. As you can see I believe that a boost to core dividends is a must in the very near future. Also, dead right they won’t compete in match day betting and neither should they expect to with a player stock market.



  • @johnboywalker If any “iceberg” does appear on the scene I expect FI will throw up something to melt it!



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in A red lining market?:

    @johnboywalker If any “iceberg” does appear on the scene I expect FI will throw up something to melt it!

    They always do 👍

    But I'd still expect to see a few women and children being thrown overboard by the panic merchants!! 🤣



  • I'm not disagreeing with any of this but theres 1 thing that strikes me as odd. First I am 100% behind a divs increase. I'd have to be an idiot not to be. But when I joined on 10/2/19, pogba and neymar were just shy of £20 ( old money). By March iirc, they were threatening £22.

    The share split brought about the slightest of divs increases in relative terms. Today pogba is £20.25 (old money) and neymar £21.60 ish. So for slightly more favourable terms the 2 are actually a bit cheaper, therefore unquestionably better value that they were 7 months ago.

    The difference now is that sancho, mbappe and others are bridging the gap. Logically a div increase would benefit the rest of the top 10, or at least those of them that actually get divs, and in reality pogba and to a lesser extent neymar are currently huge value

    Edit: by March they were actually around £23.50, so £7.80 odd in new money



  • @johnboywalker said in A red lining market?:

    @Timothee-Atouba said in A red lining market?:

    @johnboywalker If any “iceberg” does appear on the scene I expect FI will throw up something to melt it!

    They always do 👍

    But I'd still expect to see a few women and children being thrown overboard by the panic merchants!! 🤣

    Mostly young over hyped children hopefully 😂



  • @Westy Very good post its crossed my mind in the last few weeks to sell up call it day.


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to Forum was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.