Reality Check



  • So for the last couple of weeks I have continually read articles from traders about player price drops, large spreads on players to instant sell and if a player has increased in value should he be sold. So now might be a good time to remind everyone that this is a gambling site and not a money tree!

    With each passing month as more traders join the index becomes more established and just like any other index there will be ups and downs but more importantly there will be volatility. However just like when buying stocks and shares some people will do full due diligence whilst others will buy what they hear down the pub whilst others will just buy anything and more importantly will sell on emotion not sense.

    With the platform now a little more established there are a higher percentage of traders that truly understand the concept of value so it will become less easy to make the returns we have become used to for what in effect was little effort or skill.

    If the platform only reacted in a sensible and logical way only a handful of players would ever be bought and FI would make little money, however due to the fact that gambling is emotional and people do it with little or no study or planning means that it has and to an extent still is possible to make money based upon other traders gambling and emotional decisions.

    To explain: If the index is rational there would be a fixed percentage return we would all accept for the risk taken with our capital, then using known statistics and sensible projections we would look at a players dividend potential over the next 3 years and work out the price he should be. I actually believe that a lot of the top 50 are close to these prices so hence there stagnation. However this stagnation reflects they will earn you money over that period and dependent on if their performances get better you will get an increased return or if they are injured or decline your return will fall.

    The current fascination with young players is easy to understand as traders are scared on missing out on the next big thing so wish to buy on the cheap. However this is fraught with danger as you are now paying top 20 player prices for unknown future returns and for every 1 you get right there may be 10 you do not.

    IPD are a brilliant way for FI to generate revenue as they play to the gambler and with large spreads and increasing prices my guess is more people lose than win and that within 12 months the players that can possibly make you money will be priced accordingly and losses will become more the norm.

    Cheap players - this is the real bonkers part of the index - between everybody I read about on the forum you must hold at least over 400 cheap players sub £1.00 saying they will double. However over the last 18 months I am guessing these players or similar account for less than 5% of all PB wins never mind MB wins. However currently they make money as others also buy them but this can only end in tears when finally everyone realises for the purpose of the index they are dog shit!

    Do not get me wrong there is money to be made at all levels but eventually there will be enough sophisticated traders understanding value that it will become a lower returning more boring environment that also caters for short term gamblers.

    If you have got to this bit you really must have little to do as when re-reading this it is particularly boring 😀



  • @Fletch

    Agree with everything you said. It was a boring read :)

    But seriously, I have been saying this since the Share Split and can't understand the obsession with youngsters that are years away from generating any type of return.

    Peoples expectations are that a fantastic return is only achieved if you are doubling or trebling your money on every deal which just isn't feasible as the market matures.

    I am happy with my current dividend yield of 1.1% per month average since March. This just doesn't appeal to your average ACCA or 1st goalscorer chaser however.

    Hopefully there will be a dividend increase announced for the 4th birthday in a couple of weeks to reignite the trading market rather than the IPD flips we are currently seeing.



  • @Fletch I disagree with you on cheap players. For example Jose Fonte who is 36 in December. I bought him at 15 or 16p in the summer even though experienced traders advised me not to. He assisted on the opening day of the season and due to him having Champions League football he peaked at 31p which is 100% profit.

    I believe there are a lot of traders on here who don't have lots of money to invest therefore they can't afford the more expensive players who are more likely to win PB's. To suggest only people who have large sums of money on here are the sophisticated traders is quite frankly an insult.

    Value can be had at all levels and any player can win PB's though the more expensive are more likely. To say the bonkers part of the index is in cheap players is wrong imo. Again take Fonte as a prime example. He assisted on the opening day and with that you had an instant 6.25% return on your money plus the rise in his price. I could name many cheap defenders I bought during the summer with similar returns.

    Again, just because some traders might have more money does not mean they are more sophisticated.



  • @Pagey74

    I do not think you have read my post thoroughly and have taken offence because you currently trade in those areas successfully at present. I never said or indicated that sophisticated is rich it actually refers to traders who understand how something works and the in this case the likely odds of being successful. A rich fool can easily be parted from his money!!

    One of the reasons I do not over post on here is that to many people are easily offended (remember Andy M) and then argue back and forth when usually it is because they do not take the time to read posts fully and then jump to conclusions.

    I stated that within 12 months the lower priced players that can earn you a return from IPD will be priced accordingly and with wider instant sell spreads so that it will be difficult to achieve profits. Currently there are still IPD plays to make but they get fewer by the week.

    The bonkers part is that nearly every lower priced player statistically has little to no chance of winning PB or MB so in effect is a waste of money unless someone else is dafter to pay a higher price for an asset that is probably worthless.

    When the platform matures further and stabilises the majority of returns will be from PB and MB as capital appreciation will reduce dramatically meaning that dividend yield will be crucial. Therefore rich or not rich you will still get the same % return if you own 1 or 100 Neymar or other highly priced player.

    This is not me saying only buy high priced players it is my take on the direction of the index over the coming months and years and from looking at the facts.



  • I have literally just posted the same message in the Pogba thread, also work as a financial advisor, we must be clones 😂



  • @Fletch thanks for the post.
    I’m a new trader and I have set myself a goal of 22% ROI for my 1st year.

    In your opinion what would you class as a first year new trader good return rate?



  • @Fletch I've not taken offence by anything you have said, I just don't agree with you. Whilst the platform is growing not all new traders will be able to afford the high end players therefore will look for cheaper alternatives,

    Like you have said this is a gambling platform and to suggest a gambler is likely to be happy to have 1 share in Neymar at £7.50 to win a few pence in dividends is quite frankly ridiculous. I believe traders will look for value and to have a reasonable amount of shares in a player so it's worthwhile.

    If everyone bought the same players like Neymar, Pogba etc then FI wouldn't exist.



  • @Collymore10 I know your question isn’t directed at me but 2 opinions are better than one - 22% is a monster return. The footie is a good barometer of how the platform grows but whilst new players are added the potential for you to grow even in line is improbable as those funds are spread over more options. I have set a more modest 8% target and as I sit (3/4 months in) it hasn’t been a bed of roses, I have been burned more than once but I’m sat on just under 5% return



  • @Bradley117 thanks for the reply mate. Actually got up to 24% but dropped down to 14% (mainly because of Maguire)
    Trading since 1 June



  • @Bradley117 who burnt you?



  • @Collymore10

    I started again in June and if I’m honest the
    only reason I’m in the green is because I got
    a deposit bonus and my port jumped massively
    by 15 percent from the Thursday before prem
    started for like 10 days

    You similar



  • @Fletch said in Reality Check:

    Cheap players - this is the real bonkers part of the index - between everybody I read about on the forum you must hold at least over 400 cheap players sub £1.00 saying they will double. However over the last 18 months I am guessing these players or similar account for less than 5% of all PB wins never mind MB wins. However currently they make money as others also buy them but this can only end in tears when finally everyone realises for the purpose of the index they are dog shit!

    Totally understand your opinion but cant disagree more.

    Some of these cheap players will go on and become established stars so to state in your words they are "dog shit" is mis-understanding how the index works.

    For most traders finding a hidden gem as a youngster is where a serious profit can be made in a short space of time.

    Agreed, very few of these kids will make the big time but with proper research, football knowledge and a bit of luck some will, and to avoid these players is naive at best.

    I do agree that the established stars at the top of the index (top 50) who are earning regular dividends will be the backbone of the index going forward but all of these players only have a certain shelf life and will be replaced by the rising stars who are currently a lot cheaper than the established stars.

    This is the absolute genius of the index, because a footballers shelf life at the absolute highest level is limited (Messi and Ronaldo withstanding) it will be constantly evolving and investors that stand still and ignore new talent will miss out of the huge potential ROI of the new superstars that will burst onto the scene.

    If you look at early screenshots of portfolios when FI started the likes of Rooney and Ibrahimovich were right at the top of the index and where are they now. These are the "dog shit" players that investors need to be wary of, older players past their prime hanging in there at the top of the index.



  • @Long-Haul-Col absolutely 100% , both hands , both legs agree with you .. I just dont get why people so protective of their strategy and try to convince others that other strategy is utter shit !! FI is not on year thing and soon Messi and Ronaldo are gonna be gone somebody else is gonna take their place .. And who got Mbappe at depends 1£ is dying laughing right now !



  • @Collymore10

    I'm over 50% up in 9 months and I've seen others who have done far better.

    These lads from the financial background are right to manage expectations but the vast growth on FI, is incredible and given the young age of the platform, it has a long way to go.

    If you don't hit 22% in a year, I'd be surprised, especially if you start planning now for the Euro's.



  • @Fletch

    I can see from your post that you're entire view of the index, appears to be, that a player is only worth something, if they are producing dividends. It's a sound world view, hard to challenge with anything tangible... it's just not how I see the market.

    Football Index to me, is a lot like Poker. The cards are important but the reason the same poker players make it to tournament finals isn't because they have the statistics of every combination memorised... it's because they play the man, not the cards. So while you're looking for the player who's going to trickle you in the dividends, I'm looking for the guy, I think others are going to be looking for.

    The cycles of FI, mean that what works in January, isn't the same thing that works in February. So whilst your dividend approach might be super powerful for a few months out of the year, it might also be terribly weak at other points of the calendar. Which is why we see so many top end traders crying at the minute, where as those trading at the lower ends are making it rain. There will come a point where that flips but there will then come another point where the middle of the market is booming. Seems to me, the key is to be flexible and willing to change your strategy up as the market moves.





  • @Collymore10 I learned about instant selling and short selling on what otherwise would have been ok. Wan Bisakka post transfer I held too long and price dropped, I thought the United factor would hold it. I also held Carrasco at 1.20 when the Arsenal links were there and dug in on Bale when he was on his way to China (thankfully that move didn’t go through otherwise it would have been devastating). I’ve bought Ndombele and Rice both who’ve dropped too - there’ll be more but I can’t remember them all. Equally I’ve seen some decent rises, but in the case of a few Aouar, Mbappe off the top of my head I’ve sold a little earlier than I might have. My saving grace with all of these is I didn’t have much invested in any so my loss exposure to each was probably less than £20. Now I’m increasing my portfolio value but I’m ever so glad I played with modest amounts whilst I learned about the platform (I’m also very aware I have much more to learn)



  • @Dan-The-Man yeah it was my main strat when I started mate, Maguire is killing me though



  • @Collymore10

    Ok, well answer these two questions.

    1.) At any point between now and the Euro's, will his price be higher than it is now?

    2.) In that time frame will he win dividends?

    If your answer to those questions is YES... good news, you're on a winner! If your answer is no, then maybe it's time to cut your losses.



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Reality Check:

    @Fletch

    I can see from your post that you're entire view of the index, appears to be, that a player is only worth something, if they are producing dividends. It's a sound world view, hard to challenge with anything tangible... it's just not how I see the market.

    Football Index to me, is a lot like Poker. The cards are important but the reason the same poker players make it to tournament finals isn't because they have the statistics of every combination memorised... it's because they play the man, not the cards. So while you're looking for the player who's going to trickle you in the dividends, I'm looking for the guy, I think others are going to be looking for.

    The cycles of FI, mean that what works in January, isn't the same thing that works in February. So whilst your dividend approach might be super powerful for a few months out of the year, it might also be terribly weak at other points of the calendar. Which is why we see so many top end traders crying at the minute, where as those trading at the lower ends are making it rain. There will come a point where that flips but there will then come another point where the middle of the market is booming. Seems to me, the key is to be flexible and willing to change your strategy up as the market moves.

    I kind of agree with you. Dividends are good and important but I don't agree with the view that a player is worthless if they can't or are unlikely to win dividends. In my opinion a player is only worthless is absolutely no-one wants to buy them. The reasons for buying may not always be sound (in the view of some) but as long as people continue to buy a certain player, they are not worthless.


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