Reality Check



  • Before i begin, just to clarify that this is not a moan or complaint but instead it is an acknowledgement of where we are now, in my humble opinion...

    I have seen a lot of people predict, during my near-twelve months on FI, that once growth slows down in a couple of years time that it will become a true test of your trading ability. I think, and as @Fletch also stated, that time is already upon us.

    Growth is still in its infancy, yes, but the influx of so many new users has changed the dynamics of the platform which, if every one of us experienced traders is honest, made it hard NOT to make good really good money by doing/researching very little - basically if you buy pogba and neymar for media divs, a few decent pb players and buy a few young English kids for quick cap app, sit back and watch your portfolio and balance grow. Easy. And it was.
    85% ROI between September 2018 and August 2019.

    Clearly, that is not possible anymore. But, to be honest, it shouldn't have EVER been that easy to make money. We were very lucky.

    On reflection, I must admit that the last 11 months on FI have felt like a pyramid scheme a little bit, with new users being bombarded with "sound advice" from "successful traders" (myself included) about the safest place to put their money and watch it blossom - these places just happened to be where most of our own money was/is tied up. Pitched as a "sure thing", and it always was. Everybody was winning. The glory days!

    Now though, the only "sure thing" on FI these days is a massive return in commission for the company on a daily basis. But I am not bemoaning this fact. That is the way it SHOULD be!
    Hopefully, the more FI make, the more dividends can be increased eventually. This will add a bit more value back into the big boys (good for us long term traders) and yet I am confident that it will not cause any shift from the volatility we are now seeing daily. As Football Index adverts now tell us... the game changed. It sure has!

    And we have to change with it. Whether that's change our strategy or, as I'm gathering from people's target ROI for the forthcoming year on this thread, change (lower) our forecasts.

    A bit like the cowardly custard Boris Johnson, last week I decided to prorogue FI and took a 7 day time out, so I didn't have to witness the losses i was making daily. Just after 6pm today, I'll be back in session and if I am anywhere near breaking even compared to 7 days ago, I'll be happy.
    I wouldn't have dreamt of such a pessimistic outcome 6 months ago. But there we are, the game changed.



  • I have to agree with Ste above. I have been a fairly laid back investor, investing in a wide range of players, and lazily watching money grow. I only traded if I think one shot up too much in value (and I've generally been right).

    I think now I'm going to have to work a little harder, but I'm going to leave it for a few more weeks (mainly because I'm travelling a lot) and see what happens. My first anniversary will be in just under 3 months, so with a bit of extra time over Christmas I'll reassess my strategy then.



  • I agree also. I think I was very lazy and pretty well for around 6 months and now the last 2 have been a real grind and even my players who have great form haven't really risen much. The game has changed and we have to adapt



  • @Nikitz71 @Long-Haul-Col Agree about the whole dog shit comment.

    Not quite the same but when I first joined the index back c12-14 month ago my first purchase was Moise Kean who was at Juventus at the time. His shares were £1.86 each and bought £100 worth (53 in total) after the share split I suddenly had 159 shares in him. Then he went on his flurry of scoring goals for Juve and Italy. He now sits at £2.45. Granted he's not at Pogba, Neymar level. Hell he aint even at Salah, De Bruyne level but there are bargain players out there who will go on to make money.

    Even if I sold all my sales using instant sell I'd still make over £380 which is over £280 return on my original investment.



  • I think lots of people on here are massivly guilty of comparing football index directly to a stock market. its a completely different product. the best thing i read on hear was 'play the man, not the cards', its exactly correct.... no day is the same, patterns change and are unpredictable and there are different ways of making money without one way being right and another wrong. Someone with £100 to invest compared with £10,000 to invest is obviously going to have a completely different strategy, and someone who spends £100 is obviously going to be less enthusiastic about making 10% than the latter. so many users of football index convince themselves its not a gambling site and think they have more of a say in strategy because they have more money invested. its utter rubbish, stop over analysing the product, treat it for what it is, and ultimately done spend what you cant afford to lose...



  • @Brane_Ormso Absolutely. Like I said previously if we all only owned the top 5 players then FI would cease to exist. Also like some traders on here, I don't have thousands of pounds to deposit so I have to make do with finding cheaper players as I want a significant shares in a player in the hope he can win me some decent dividends. As a a trader I cannot see the point in owning 2 or 3 shares in Pogba, Neymar etc.



  • @ScouseSte said in Reality Check:

    I have seen a lot of people predict, during my near-twelve months on FI, that once growth slows down in a couple of years time that it will become a true test of your trading ability. I think, and as @Fletch also stated, that time is already upon us.

    Has it really changed buddy? Or are we just seeing the rise on new kings?

    I mean... would you be talking about lack of profits if you were on KDB? Given that in the last month he's risen from £3.19 to £4.71 and picked up multiple dividend wins.

    He's the best CAM in the Premiership, playing for the best team in the league and one of the best international teams in the world, he posts consistently high scores. Doesn't seem like you needed to be a trading expert to guess that he was going to fly when the season kicked in.

    Growth is still in its infancy, yes, but the influx of so many new users has changed the dynamics of the platform

    In what way has it changed? Dan James is a young, Man Utd, Winger, isn't that the exact type of player you'd have expected to rise? Him Chong and Garner are all in the top risers today and have had a decent month.

    Martial picked up an injury... he dropped like a sack of spuds and those of us who weren't paying attention took the fall, but he's rising again on the road to recovery. Wouldn't you say that was entirely how you'd expect the market to act?



  • @Dan-The-Man Martial has missed one game?
    He’s 24, you could safely project another 300 career appearances minimum. So realistically at around the £3 mark he should have gone down by 1p. Things are so reckless and impulsive on here right now and this is a classic case in point.



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in Reality Check:

    So realistically at around the £3 mark he should have gone down by 1p. Things are so reckless and impulsive on here right now and this is a classic case in point.

    I'd say that's unrealistic expectations of the market, likely based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how things work.

    It only takes 900 futures to be put up for sale for Martial to lose 1p.

    To put that into perspective, I have 1500 futures in some players, so if I wanted out, I'd cause that penny to drop on my own.



  • @Dan-The-Man I hear you and understand it doesn’t take much for a player to fall in price. But the fact is he looks like missing 0.2-0.3% of his likely eligible career matches and his price drops by what 10%? No matter what way you evaluate that drop it’s an unbelievably staggering overreaction. I don’t hold so don’t really care.
    Redmond lost over 10% of his price and it looks as though his injury will last one game and already he’s recovered virtually half of the drop.



  • @Timothee-Atouba don't think Dan disagrees with the logic... But market behaviour is proven that overreactions occur. If Mount gets a 3 month injury I'd expect him to drop 20p... And I'd immediately buy, cos a day later he would start to rise again.



  • @Dan-The-Man yes &! Yes



  • Over reactions offer value though to those chasing capital appreciation. Maybe it’s experienced traders being a bit slow to get the finger on the pulse with these which is aiding the price drop too (and new traders - if the finger is pointed at them being naive and short sighted), my expectation is eventually as new and old traders alike become more savvy these overzealous reactions will be smoothed.

    Unfortunately when prices fall that costs our peers money, when those players lose they stand to leave the index so I believe when the money stops coming in the index will fail. If you’re on 10%+ ROI in the last 3 months there’s a chance someone has lost interest with a 90% return.

    Those holding De Ligt, Bale, Neymar and Pogba for too long will be in that place



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in Reality Check:

    the fact is he looks like missing 0.2-0.3% of his likely eligible career matches and his price drops by what 10%? No matter what way you evaluate that drop it’s an unbelievably staggering overreaction.

    I wouldn't say it's an over-reaction. The moment a player is injured, you don't know if it's a week, a month or a year. Your options are sell or hold.

    The safest course of action is to sell immediately upon the injury happening.



  • @Dan-The-Man then buy back after the dip👍



  • @Carboney

    Exactly.

    Effectively shorting the market.



  • @Dan-The-Man instant sell I presume?



  • @Collymore10

    Depends how quick you are to find out and if there are other reasons people might still be buying in, (has he just scored a hatrick before the injury?) but yeah, don't be afraid to IS.

    Take Martial. He's dropped 40p. The spread and commission combined in the early minutes wouldn't have been anything like 40p, so instant selling would likely have saved a lot of money.



  • @Dan-The-Man yep understood 👍



  • @ScouseSte how have you compared from a week with no viewing. What's the difference in your port?


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