Turns out you can lose money...



  • @janner73 As long as they make money do they really care?



  • @Pagey74 I think they do. I don't think it looks good for potential new joiners to see a mass of red at the top of the index. As a trader I'll deal with whatever they decide but I do think we are getting close to the point where we will start to see the top end move again. The (bigger) drops in the likes of Pogba and Salah today suggest to me that there is a final push out there to shake the prices as low as possible before a surge.



  • @janner73 I'm not so sure pal. I would think the majority of new users don't have thousands of pounds to deposit therefore I would suggest they are looking for cheaper alternatives to give them a decent amount of shares in players.

    Personally I would rather 300 shares in a £2 ish player than 100 in a £6 ish player. If the majority of new traders are thinking the same then this could explain the drop in the most expensive players.

    Talking about Pogba, where is the value in him now? currently injured, he has lost a lot of potential media day wins due to the the Euro qualifiers being included for PB & IPD's and Man Utd seem to have a lot of hype around their younger players. Yes he was a great hold in the past but perhaps he's had his time.



  • @Pagey74 I could of course be completely wrong, and I am talking about the look - it doesn't necessarily matter where you are going to spend. If I look at the product and see all the best players in the world falling a price I would question whether that's a product I want to join - it would set alarm bells ringing for me.
    I'm all for people trading in different parts of the market - and I do - but most just follow wherever the lastest quick price surge is and plenty have to be losing by always following,



  • @Pagey74 said in Turns out you can lose money...:

    Talking about Pogba, where is the value in him now? currently injured, he has lost a lot of potential media day wins due to the the Euro qualifiers being included for PB & IPD's and Man Utd seem to have a lot of hype around their younger players. Yes he was a great hold in the past but perhaps he's had his time.

    His drop at the moment is logical I can't dispute that. I also know the index works in cycles and his time will come again - it will only take something small to trigger a big run of Pogba MB and when it happens he wins for days and weeks on end.



  • @janner73 said in Turns out you can lose money...:

    @Pagey74 said in Turns out you can lose money...:

    Talking about Pogba, where is the value in him now? currently injured, he has lost a lot of potential media day wins due to the the Euro qualifiers being included for PB & IPD's and Man Utd seem to have a lot of hype around their younger players. Yes he was a great hold in the past but perhaps he's had his time.

    His drop at the moment is logical I can't dispute that. I also know the index works in cycles and his time will come again - it will only take something small to trigger a big run of Pogba MB and when it happens he wins for days and weeks on end.

    People have been singing that song for 6 months and he keeps getting lower, despite large dividend returns over summer.

    Maybe, just maybe, the Pogtrain has truly fallen off the tracks.



  • @Dan-The-Man Only an opinion :) Could be right, could be wrong :)



  • @janner73 @Pagey74 I agree with @janner73 on this - i think the index has been compressing to the point where we're about to see a surge at the top end - whether organic or mechanically induced by FI with a dividend increase, a bonus or whatever.

    I predicted the same around the start of June, when i saw that the top 10 had been in stagnation since after the SS and the rest of the top 100 had rapidly caught up with them. I was right at that point - money started surging back in to the top end around mid-June.

    Looking at it now, the top 10 has grown by just 3.5% since the end of March, after the SS, while the top 100 has grown by 36% and the Footie has grown by 46%. Even looking back to start of the year before the pre-SS surge in the top players, the top 10 has grown by 35% (including that massive SS surge), compared to 62% for the top 100 and 145% for the Footie. So the rest of the market has grown considerably faster and more dramatically than the top 10.

    That is a lot of money being put into a lot of players with zero inherent value, with traders gambling on quick rises perhaps. At some point the regular promise of dividends and relative stability of the top players seems to appear more attractive again.

    I also believe FI will be keen to see the top 10 in green - they love it when the top is flying - they're posting rocket emojis all over Twitter - it's obviously great PR for the product. Also, logically, the prices in the top 10 set the benchmark for the rest of the index - they need to keep going up in the long-term rather than down, because otherwise if the current trend continues you're going to have a point where Greenwood is the highest value player on FI, leaving a trail of world class players in his dust - and the optics of that are just not great - we want to see the world's best players at the top of the index, leading the way and driving the prices of everyone up, as it makes it look like something that actually correlates with real-world common sense.



  • Iv now gone from 450 profit on a 3 g portfolio to 50 in the space of 3 weeks and its dropping still. Are people just literally keeping a cash balance and putting nothing in players anymore?



  • @janner73 I joined FI around June this year and the growth in players has been astounding.

    Not knowing what I was doing I made a spreadsheet on the top 3 performing players of each team in each of the top 5 leagues according to whoscored.com. If I would have a £100000 and invested in every one of those players I could have retired by now just by their increase in CA.

    The majority of these players were all priced under a £1. I appreciate the platform is growing but I think a lot of traders who only shop at the top end of players don't appreciate the significant amount of money that has gone into the lower end of the player market and traders are showing massive profits on these players.

    Whilst the platform is growing these players will continue to rise so why would holders of these players cash their profits in and place it on a more expensive and risky hold such as Pogba.

    Like I said I didn't really know what I was doing when I first joined, however I thought the lower end of the market was very undervalued and I went with my gut. An example of this was Robert Lewandowski. I bought him at 93p and he's now trading at £1.69. Proven quality. I have many other examples.

    I've always said there is better value at the lower end of the market especially if your budget is somewhat limited. I'm not disputing Pogba etc has been very good for holders in the past,however for traders like me I think we'll be shopping at the lower end of the market for a long time to come.



  • Does anyone remember the increase in the top end players pre share split?
    I seem to remember that the reasoning at the time for investing in the top end players was because people thought other users would buy top end players!!
    So the majority of money put into these players was not put in because of any statistics on the main, it was purely trying to predict the market which in turn caused the market to act.



  • @Pagey74 But if you keep shopping at that lower end, as everyone else is, then their prices are going to get closer and closer to the top priced players. Eventually there is a point where those cheaper players no longer represent value if the bottom end is moving up and the top end is moving down - at that point the top end will surge again. You need to be able to predict when this will happen though.



  • @Pagey74 said in Turns out you can lose money...:

    The majority of these players were all priced under a £1. I appreciate the platform is growing but I think a lot of traders who only shop at the top end of players don't appreciate the significant amount of money that has gone into the lower end of the player market and traders are showing massive profits on these players.

    I absolutely appreciate how much has gone into the lower end. I trade in all parts of the market. But I can tell you now those players can only go so high before they aren't value compared to more premium players. At that point big holders will start to shift money to the top end and the cycle starts all over again. Those people currently loaded up at the bottom end of the market are the same ones that were telling everyone to buy top end pre SS forcing the prices as high as they could to get out at max profit and move to the cheap end. The same is going to happen in reverse soon - they are pushing the cheap end as far as they can and then they will get out with their big profits and move to the top end when its bottoming out.



  • @janner73 Exactly the point i just made - the two can't go in opposite directions forever! At some point there is a jarring moment and a realisation from traders where suddenly the top players look good value again compared to everyone else.



  • @Wotabeast Yep must have posted your shorter version while I was saying the same thing in a novel haha



  • @janner73 Ha - yeah well i'm usually the one posting over-long messages! Question is, do you think the top end can/will rise organically, or is it going to take some stimulation from FI to get it going and pique people's interests again? The market doesn't always behave logically and FI will no doubt want to see that top end back in the green sooner rather than later.



  • @Wotabeast it will take stimulation. 👍



  • @janner73 I'm not so sure as if the platform continues to grow like it has in the last few months then new users who are on a limited budget will not be interested in investing at the top end. Let's not forget everyone who joins is a gambler. Now as a gambler if you join and deposit £50 are you going to be interested in buying 8 shares in Pogba to win a few pence back if/when he wins media? Or would you rather have 100 shares in a 50p player who you believe has potential?



  • @Wotabeast I think it's likely to take stimulation.



  • @Pagey74 Im not talking about the new joiners on small budgets tho. I'm talking about the big traders who have large amounts of futures in those lower end players after getting out at the top on the big boys post SS. They are milking the lower end for everything they can get with big holdings which is why the prices have risen so fast. Whether it's naturally, or by stimulation, at some point a lot of those big traders will take their money back to the top end - it's just a case of timing it.
    Anyone who holds lower end players should be willing growth in the top end anyway. If the top end doesn't grow there comes a point the bottom end wont grow either. The 2 shouldn't be in competition with each other.


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to Football Index Forum was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.