Turns out you can lose money...

  • Iv now gone from 450 profit on a 3 g portfolio to 50 in the space of 3 weeks and its dropping still. Are people just literally keeping a cash balance and putting nothing in players anymore?

  • @janner73 I joined FI around June this year and the growth in players has been astounding.

    Not knowing what I was doing I made a spreadsheet on the top 3 performing players of each team in each of the top 5 leagues according to whoscored.com. If I would have a £100000 and invested in every one of those players I could have retired by now just by their increase in CA.

    The majority of these players were all priced under a £1. I appreciate the platform is growing but I think a lot of traders who only shop at the top end of players don't appreciate the significant amount of money that has gone into the lower end of the player market and traders are showing massive profits on these players.

    Whilst the platform is growing these players will continue to rise so why would holders of these players cash their profits in and place it on a more expensive and risky hold such as Pogba.

    Like I said I didn't really know what I was doing when I first joined, however I thought the lower end of the market was very undervalued and I went with my gut. An example of this was Robert Lewandowski. I bought him at 93p and he's now trading at £1.69. Proven quality. I have many other examples.

    I've always said there is better value at the lower end of the market especially if your budget is somewhat limited. I'm not disputing Pogba etc has been very good for holders in the past,however for traders like me I think we'll be shopping at the lower end of the market for a long time to come.

  • Does anyone remember the increase in the top end players pre share split?
    I seem to remember that the reasoning at the time for investing in the top end players was because people thought other users would buy top end players!!
    So the majority of money put into these players was not put in because of any statistics on the main, it was purely trying to predict the market which in turn caused the market to act.

  • @Pagey74 But if you keep shopping at that lower end, as everyone else is, then their prices are going to get closer and closer to the top priced players. Eventually there is a point where those cheaper players no longer represent value if the bottom end is moving up and the top end is moving down - at that point the top end will surge again. You need to be able to predict when this will happen though.

  • @Pagey74 said in Turns out you can lose money...:

    The majority of these players were all priced under a £1. I appreciate the platform is growing but I think a lot of traders who only shop at the top end of players don't appreciate the significant amount of money that has gone into the lower end of the player market and traders are showing massive profits on these players.

    I absolutely appreciate how much has gone into the lower end. I trade in all parts of the market. But I can tell you now those players can only go so high before they aren't value compared to more premium players. At that point big holders will start to shift money to the top end and the cycle starts all over again. Those people currently loaded up at the bottom end of the market are the same ones that were telling everyone to buy top end pre SS forcing the prices as high as they could to get out at max profit and move to the cheap end. The same is going to happen in reverse soon - they are pushing the cheap end as far as they can and then they will get out with their big profits and move to the top end when its bottoming out.

  • @janner73 Exactly the point i just made - the two can't go in opposite directions forever! At some point there is a jarring moment and a realisation from traders where suddenly the top players look good value again compared to everyone else.

  • @Wotabeast Yep must have posted your shorter version while I was saying the same thing in a novel haha

  • @janner73 Ha - yeah well i'm usually the one posting over-long messages! Question is, do you think the top end can/will rise organically, or is it going to take some stimulation from FI to get it going and pique people's interests again? The market doesn't always behave logically and FI will no doubt want to see that top end back in the green sooner rather than later.

  • @Wotabeast it will take stimulation. 👍

  • @janner73 I'm not so sure as if the platform continues to grow like it has in the last few months then new users who are on a limited budget will not be interested in investing at the top end. Let's not forget everyone who joins is a gambler. Now as a gambler if you join and deposit £50 are you going to be interested in buying 8 shares in Pogba to win a few pence back if/when he wins media? Or would you rather have 100 shares in a 50p player who you believe has potential?

  • @Wotabeast I think it's likely to take stimulation.

  • @Pagey74 Im not talking about the new joiners on small budgets tho. I'm talking about the big traders who have large amounts of futures in those lower end players after getting out at the top on the big boys post SS. They are milking the lower end for everything they can get with big holdings which is why the prices have risen so fast. Whether it's naturally, or by stimulation, at some point a lot of those big traders will take their money back to the top end - it's just a case of timing it.
    Anyone who holds lower end players should be willing growth in the top end anyway. If the top end doesn't grow there comes a point the bottom end wont grow either. The 2 shouldn't be in competition with each other.

  • @janner73 @Ericali Yeah i'm inclined to agree. Surely a dividend increase is the only thing that will reinforce true value over an extended period of time.

    The only other factor i think worth considering at the moment is the impact of the PB matrix changes, and whether some of those declines in prices of top players are part of a perception that they are no longer good value because other players are better suited to winning divs. However this is illogical as the main driver of price for the top players is MB, not PB...but i do think it is having an impact. As mentioned, the index is not necessarily logical. The rise we have seen in KDB compared to other top players maybe reinforces this - but soon perhaps people will realise that without a constant stream of MB coming in as well as PB, he is going to look way overpriced.

  • @Wotabeast a dividend increase will be the only thing that brings the money back to the top end.

    Unfortunately, I think this is Xmas at the earliest, but more likely to be next season whilst the platform is still booming & the footie is up.

  • @Ericali nah it would be the best outcome for the top end. but the drops are logical for certain reasons.... many of those reasons are temporary not permanent.

    If people think players like Neymar and Pogba are overvalued... when actually their yield is vetter than ever... they will wake up soon and see that all those players who were £1-2 6 months ago and are now £3-4 are the ones that are overpriced... massively, with shit yields...

    as janner says cap ap goes in cycles.. the mid range are massively overpriced now. The lower end of market is running out of gems. Its onto non-pb kids. that wont last long.

  • @Ericali I think it depends how quickly the bottom end stagnates. There has to be a limit to how high those players can go - we've already seen some (Lukaku) overshoot their value and correct back down.
    But in FI's shoes I would hold out for a dividend increase as long as I can - but be aware that holding out too long could hold back the growth at some point.

  • @Vespasian32 I suppose the argument might be that for Pogba, for example, his historic dividend yield now looks very strong compared to his current price, but his current price reflects what people think will happen to his yield in the future (i.e. it will go down if he moves and there are also now fewer triple MB days).

    I honestly think however that it is more due to the fact that he has gone a few weeks without winning any MB. Traders are so short-sighted, and history has shown that Pog wins MB in fits and starts - but when he's winning, he absolutely dominates.

  • I also believe FI will be keen to see the top 10 in green - they love it when the top is flying - they're posting rocket emojis all over Twitter - it's obviously great PR for the product.

    Can’t they can’t just put a picture of Erling Haland and a few rocket emojis?

  • @Timothee-Atouba

    Not really cus when people see he’s 3quid a share and more than Icardi jovic etc prob put them off

  • @Timothee-Atouba Nice idea but i think you would find that outside of the FI bubble hardly anyone knows who Haland is!

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