Turns out you can lose money...



  • @Neil2265 I agree. It seems clear that there are a lot of short term traders who I also can't comprehend. but again, maybe the solution then is to sell earlier than that? 30 mins before the teams are released?

    I am in no way trying to sound clever or argumentative and I'm not saying this is what I do. But there is surely always a way to beat the market?



  • @janner73 Yeah i agree just can't get my head around it I think, the market just seems so reactive at the moment.
    Think I need to learn to either ignore the drops or simply check my port less



  • On a gambling platform such as poker and casinos, at least 95% of people would be making a loss. Why are people moaning on here when 95% of people seem to make a profit. I know, pure greed.



  • @NewUser731 from what I've seen that classic Monday dip, Saturday morning peak is diminishing

    I bought belotti well in advance of a single game day at home to lecce... He rose about 6p only in the build up of around 1 week. He didn't score in the first half and was dumped around 4p...scored early in second half and went up 1p...now he's dropped since full time down like 7p and flat... No money back in prep for his next match (probably will go up a few p before kick off)

    So if I'd sold at the peak time... After commission I'd have made 3p per share...but only if market sold. With the spreads now I was never in a position to IS as a quick flip.

    Not saying it was a good trade or that I was unlucky... But last season this was bread and butter easy 10% flip even with IS.

    @janner73 is right... Need to change mindset of short term up and down... Belotti always scores a few braces and is leading line for Italy... Big picture... I'll be able to sell at 1.50+ at some point in the season.

    Pogba will win a bout of mb and rise again
    Rashford will win some mb and hit form and rise again
    Rashica, ndiaye, Guilherme will return from injury and pick up value
    Icardi and neymar will bang them in for psg and rise in value and win pb

    I always work on a shifting exit point tho. Whats the point being 17k up if I'm gona sit idly as it dwindles down to 10k again? So I'm always moving the goalposts of what my exit is I. E. I will sell up and walk away if my profit goes from 17k to 15k... If we see an upturn and I get to 22/23k my next minimum walk away profit is 20k... So on so forth.



  • @Neil2265 Checking port too much is something 99% of us are probably guilty of. There are a lot of short term traders now, and I suspect more and more doing it full time. But to make money EVERY day short-term trading then those traders need to create price movements in both directions and rely on people reacting and following so they get their profits.
    Long-term, in the main, base prices rise on the good players its just not a straight line as the short-termers move in and out. For my long term holds I tend to either ignore the short-term price changes or use specific events to my advantage. I will often sell a long term hold on a spike around a single game day and rebuy them back at a cheaper price a day or 2 after the game. So even long-term trading you can take advantage of the short-termers.



  • @TeamGB I suppose there is greed but also is it unrealistic expectations?



  • I'm not experiences these portfolio dips ye guys seem to be - my port has been rising steadily the past couple of months so I'd thought I'd share my own method of investing to give people an idea of a strategy that's working currently... (I'm not saying I'm the greatest trader ever and I realize it may be just a cycle)

    Firstly I've a portfolio of about 200 players at the moment, anytime I buy a player my primary concern is to buy someone who represents good value rather than "the next Messi". I generally shop in the 30p - 70p range, young, attacking midfielders & forwards only, the cheaper the better.
    In my experience holding lots of these type of players their prices generally stay quite stable until they do something positive so as long as your buying a half decent player...the only way they'll go is up(usually). I feel this method of investment limits the risk of already over hyped players having massive drops off if they go through a lean spell as most players do. It also seems these players are less susceptible to this constant price cycling that is happening lately.

    Anyway, hope this helps some struggling for direction.



  • @Wiillaah such a good point and it sounds horrendously obvious. But every player is value at a certain price. There is no point in buying the next Messi if they are already over-priced. Even Henderson would offer value if he was 15p. (That last part is only partly a joke).



  • @NewUser731 said in Turns out you can lose money...:

    @TeamGB I suppose there is greed but also is it unrealistic expectations?

    Absolutely - none of us have had to be good traders to make money in the past. It's been pretty hard not to make money but that has led to people continuing to expect to make easy money. Long term holding will still be profitable with the right players but good short-term traders will make considerably more (with much higher risk and plenty of losers for those who aren't good at it).
    We all have to make decisions on what return we want to aim for based on the time we put in but I think long-term trades absolutely need to reign in their expectations. There is still a huge amount of growth to come but I think the next few months will continue to be similar to this.



  • I would say 'FEAR NOT' as this has happened before... FI seems to flow in cycles.. JUN/JUL/AUG everybody wants the big summer movers and the big players the fashionable youngsters and the next best thing.. this drives up prices of all of those 'hyped' in the news and we get an unbalance in the market that suggests these players (like Mason Greenwood & Rhian Brewster) are actually better than they are!!!

    What happens is that in SEP/OCT/NOV we find out that these 'top' players are perhaps under-achieving.. Our hotly tipped youngsters are not even playing... and in fact all those players we ignored in the summer, the good steady PB holds that are now playing week in week out are finally coming into their own... the mid range players catch up in price with the top of the range as we feel there is more value.... Callum Wilson... Duvan Zapata... Gerard Moreno.. suddenly they look good value everytime they score.

    Then December hits... DEC/JAN/FEB sees upward movements for players linked with moves from around the world to domestic treats.. Everton Soares suddenly rises from obscurity whilst news on Neymar in the media sparks more growth, as it does with Pogba, suddenly MB is assured for the big boys and the market once again hits those under transfer speculation driving the price up of anyone playing well with a view to move.

    Finally MAR/APR/MAY and the big boys are left in the Champions League and this is what often drives up the prices of those top range players hogging the headlines as the titles near with media buzz on the likes of Salah & Sterling & Messi & Ronaldo and enough top level performances to boost upward sky rocketing movement until we all re-cycle again in the summer and cash in before targeting our transfered starlets and next best thing!!!

    Obviously there are boosts within this pending promotions and international competition but knowing how the market works over the course of 12 months will protect you for these sort of outcomes!!!!!



  • @Dan-The-Man
    why didnt you include your all time %



  • I know last year Sept-Nov were pretty dead, but things remained flat - I'm genuinely taking a hammering, and in a port of 116 players across all leagues/ages/positions, that has always generally followed the trend of the footie, it is really unprecedented.

    I think I'm just going to sell my low-value players on spikes now (e.g. Daka yesterday at 90p) and store up some funds to use once I can see a clear trend where the index is going. I'm certainly not putting any more money in whilst it is this volatile, it is just not what I enjoy as a medium-term investor.



  • @Wiillaah said in Turns out you can lose money...:

    I'm not experiences these portfolio dips ye guys seem to be - my port has been rising steadily the past couple of months so I'd thought I'd share my own method of investing to give people an idea of a strategy that's working currently... (I'm not saying I'm the greatest trader ever and I realize it may be just a cycle)

    Firstly I've a portfolio of about 200 players at the moment, anytime I buy a player my primary concern is to buy someone who represents good value rather than "the next Messi". I generally shop in the 30p - 70p range, young, attacking midfielders & forwards only, the cheaper the better.

    This post has made me realise something!

    The market is rising pretty much on a daily basis so it's not that hard to make money on FI if you hold over 150 players. In a growing market, buy one of everything and you literally can't lose.

    I see on Twitter the football index Don regularly showing his massive profits but he owns over 500 players I think!

    So to make money on FI now, just buy a shit load of players and that's you sorted for a few months at least. Easy 👍

    What I've realised is, I'm not enjoying FI anymore because my reasons for joining were not just about making money but also about being "right". Doing that little bit of research, identifying a solid long-term prospect and taking the plunge - then the feeling of satisfaction seeing him rise, even if just by a few pence but knowing you have made the right decision. The decision to INVEST. And knowing you wouldn't lose money on this investment because his attributes and fundamentals are perfect for the FI stock-market.

    6 months ago, you were rewarded for skill, research, common sense and basically investing in players who will return dividends (now or near future). The underlying value of a share is its ability to return dividends. That's what the MAJORITY of FI users understood 6 months ago.
    Dividends seems to now be seen as just a "bonus", a bit like how IPDs are seen.
    So, I am very sceptical that there will be a dividend increase in the next 6 months because, besides the fact FI are creaming commission from the current trend, I'm sure the NEW MAJORITY of FI users don't care about dividends.

    I only hold, and have only ever held on average 15 players, 15 absolutely solid players.

    Since August '19, my portfolio has dropped by 10%.
    I'm currently timed-out but am aware it continues to drop.

    Houssem Aouar fell by 9p last night pre-match JUST BECAUSE HE WAS ON THE BENCH! How much money have people lost by this INSANE behaviour? ? Yes he will rise again but it will take longer for him to get back to his previous high before another one of my solid holds only makes the bench or doesn't score in a game for him to suffer the same ridiculous fate!

    Wow. That escalated quickly! 😂



  • @ScouseSte May I ask what price you bought Aouar at?



  • And to think that after the share split people were complaining about 900 shares to move a penny and how the market would be too flat! Less than 6 months later it's too volatile!!! :)



  • Its usually right around this point of the month that things start picking up again as we get closer to most pay days
    i think pretty much every month since i have been on here has gone that way so it will be interesting to see how the next week pans out.



  • I am not making as much as I did, but am still growing.

    Think the key term in here is 'trading'. The current market isn't volatile, it's predictable to some degree. Trading is reacting to market trends and I think this is where the change has happened. You can no longer sit on a player for a few years and, barring injury or a move to a non pb league, be guaranteed a significant return.

    I dart in and out of FI lots during the day to check portfolio and don't have massive amounts to invest. I realise there are people who aren't able to do that, but once a week should be possible, in which case don't become obsessed with buying in at the lowest and selling at the highest and just think profit.

    If you think a player will get a move to a pb league or Premier league, then hold onto them. If you have a young player who has rocketed in price about to come up against man city, get rid before the game and buy back in after they get dicked by city or don't start.

    I like watching lots of football, but its the pleasant surprise of Tagliafico winning best player divs, rather than the crux of my portfolio. The actual matches make up a tiny amount of the market, make the money when they aren't playing.

    It's not perfect but I am getting hints of entitlement in some of the negative comments 'I should make the most money on an ipo because I knew about them first' or why is my player dipping when they haven't played that well or played at all.

    And on the optimistic side, it's still early in the season and if your player smashed an average of 120 last season and is looking good for the same again this season, they will probably rise again once people see the patterb of a player's good performance (with or without goals and assists)



  • @AndydfopT said in Turns out you can lose money...:

    Suppose holding Rashford and T Hazard is just unluckly.....They are draining me

    Both will rise. Rashford has been repeatedly spoken of being in line as the King of the Dex one day. Don't stress.

    T Hazard has a great rep for PB, he'll be back after a few matches from his injury.



  • @Lukeroro said in Turns out you can lose money...:

    T Hazard has a great rep for PB, he'll be back after a few matches from his injury.

    Not if him and Brandt keep replacing each other after 60-70 minutes - they'll both continue to drop in that scenario because neither will be able to post a winning score in that scenario. Sometimes drops are logical - this one is to me until we start seeing one or both actually getting 90 minutes fairly regularly.



  • @janner73 that's true. However, with the Euros next summer and the likelihood that Sancho leaves next summer their dip could be a decent time to get on board.


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