The footie down 400.

  • @Advinculas-Index said in The footie down 400.:

    Its always good to look at this graph to gain some perspective.

    So true.
    I purposely stayed off the forum most of yesterday because it has become such a depressing place to be this past week. Forget a timeout from FI, I think a timeout from the forum would do some people some good and a chance to get some perspective.

    Yes it's been a rough week - but having spent my time yesterday watching the market instead of being on the forum I can see a lot more logic to the way the market is acting than perhaps I thought there was.

  • I have been on for just over a year and this week saw my biggest drop (about 2%) on 10k port.I have only had 8 weeks in Red since I started and 4 have been in the last 5 weeks.I think people are just changing the way they are investing probably more gambling than investment now.

    I was drawn to this because of the investment side so if it continues like this I may withdraw some and play with profit until I see what develops.Still think F.I. is a great platform I guess whatever they do will upset some.

  • @Hat1988 Yes, this is a great product with potentially mainstream, worldwide appeal.
    It’s just uncertainty about the direction of the index that has caused the recent turbulence.
    I think it’s in their interest to do something that clearly signals their primary direction.

  • @janner73 I have to say I do rather spent my weekend watching sport rather than reading every post on the forum.

    Besides that, I think it is fair to say that I wouldn't be the only one who would love to know, if you were willing to share your observations on the market and the current logic. Obviously if you want to keep that edge fair enough

  • @Antierror Having had time to think I don't think there's anything that surprising - particularly in the top 200. The risers list is full of players who posted good PB scores - many for the 2nd or 3rd time this season (Insigne almost a 2nd win, Berardi now 2 very good scores, Alberto a 2nd win) , players who have been getting a lot of goals/assists (Sabitzer, Pellegrini) with a few youngsters impressing with game time (Saka, Odegaard).

    The fallers in the top 200 mainly make sense too - I guess Joan Jordan maybe slightly confusing but I think there's a worry that he's always being subbed which will ultimately limit his PB wins.

    It's the squad where trading gets interested - the flipping on goals is truly incredibly but it also became very clear to me that traders who play in that end of the market are using goals to refresh IPD eligibility. The rise and then fall after goals was what confused me before and how were people making money. It's basically people buying an existing IPD hold on a goal to get new IPD eligible shares and then selling their old shares at the top. Anyone after a goal is almost always going to get stung by existing holders offloading old shares. Net result is at the end of the day the price is often lower than before the goal was scored, IPD holders have refreshed their 30 days at with no profit/loss leaving some poor traders ISing at a loss and a net result of a lower price - particularly older players. Younger players, unsurprisingly, are holding their value better after scoring

    Those trading in the bottom end are trading perfectly rationally and continually refreshing IPD eligibility at effectively no cost while no doubt leaving some, probably newer traders, stung.

    In order to refresh like this traders are carrying large cash balances which I have to assume is coming from releasing funds in the big MB boys which is why we are seeing the drops there.

    There is a lot of self-fulfilling buying just because others will as well. Watching Pablo Fornals rise from £1.08 to £1.14 just because he got a start was a little funny. Although I guess in starting he had a chance of winning IPDs that he hasn't had much of a chance of so far this season.

    IPDs are definitely a very strong driver, but it was insightful to watch in action. But PB is definitely driving the market too - players even looking like posting a decent PB score will rise around half-time in anticipation.

    I've decided to trade a little more actively now to take advantage. For example I've held Kluivert a while and IS'd him as soon as he was subbed yesterday as I could see he was gonna take a drop and will now buy back in at a lower price than the price I sold at.

    Whether that's helpful or not, or anything that people didn't already know, I'm not sure but it certainly helped me and until the market stabilises I will be trading in and out of players a lot more now whilst still holding my premium players that I absolutely believe will recover in the long-term - although at this point I am clear that it will take a div increase to do it.

  • @janner73 thanks a lot for that. The insight is much appreciated. I am still at the newer end of traders only joining in June, so I won't fully plunge into this strategy but it is good to be aware of the situation.

  • @Antierror You're welcome. The new PB matrix has definitely shaken things up as well. We're still only 5 or 6 games into the season, so a lot of quick decisions are being made based on a good or bad PB score as to whether or not players suit the new matrix which is also contributing to the volatility. I would expect PB trading to stabilise as the season goes on and traders figure out who are the consistently good scorers on the new matrix.

  • @janner73 I agree, I believe that in the end of the day all the theory is good and handy of expecting a player to do well but in the end the proof is in the pudding. People will need to see PB scores to trust players.

    I'd wish the new website or app would include a breakdown of the PB score to actually understand, why Neymar for example was exactly scoring the 293 yesterday.

    In the end of the day my trust in the product is ultimately there and I agree with the part of the forum that believes it is time to top up rather than to run

  • @Antierror I normally use sofascore to get a rough breakdown - quick look at Neymar:
    1 game winning goal,
    4 accurate long balls,
    3 key passes,
    5 shots on target,
    51 accurate passes
    3 accurate crosses
    3 attempted dribbles, 1 successful
    was fouled 4 times

  • @Alpilgrim

    They need to increase dividends so people dont just buy and sell . .. increase the amound and number of players getting the dividends.

  • @Zola25 precisely. Will FI do the obvious, that’s the question..

  • @Antierror In my attempt to show how relatively predictable the market is - I will predict that there will be a fairly large drop in Wolfsburg players over the next 24 hours. Their prices have been massively inflated in the lead up to tonight's single game day and whether its pre-match, during match or tomorrow morning after divs are paid out I would be fairly confident there will be a big dump on some of them.

  • @janner73 I was actually looking at Wolfsburg players, I am holding Xaver Schlager for quite a while already. So I'd hope he be unaffected by this dump.

    I was looking at Jerome Roussillon, but I read an article on where he talks about the new playstyle and that he still struggles to adept to it, but the Wolfsburg gaffer seems to believe in him. For their current PB scores they are actually quite inflated

  • @Antierror Schlager will be fine as he's out injured for a while. The Monday single game day trend has become quite predictable - first we had the Inter players pumped up when they were home to Lecce, last week we had Torino players suffer big drops after their Monday night single game day, tonight it's Wolfsburg's turn - I hope I'm actually wrong and the market acts a little more sensibly but I suspect not.

  • @janner73 Berardi has seen quite a rise, but as you say his PB scores have been really impressive. Buy or not? Sassuolo have some single game nights in favourable matches coming their way - Friday nights vs Brescia and Verona in October.

  • @Zola25 said in The footie down 400.:


    They need to increase dividends so people dont just buy and sell . .. increase the amound and number of players getting the dividends.

    Why? That makes no sense.... people will just buy and sell at a higher level as players will be worth more.

    Great for existing holders but not a solution to your perceived ‘problem’.

  • @Vespasian32 I think Berardi is fine to buy for now - he should hold his price for the next few games because those single game days are coming. The risk point will be around those single game days - probably the second one - which people will probably have targeted as a potential get out point. If he carries on at his current rate - 5 goals and 2 assists in 3 games - he might actually hold his price.

  • @janner73 If he carries on at that rate of product he could be a £3 player(I hope). But then again if that continues he’d be one of the best players in the world(ain’t gonna happen).
    I’ve held for months and I always thought if he got to £1.50 I’d be out, but I think £1.80’ish is realistic as long as he continues to play well given his age and I think he’ll be Italy’s CF at the Euros if he has a good season. Belotti isn’t that high a standard to pass.

  • @Timothee-Atouba At his current rate I agree - 5 goals and 2 assists in 3 games is crazy! I'm just very wary of the market right now and single game day trading which is why I see on or around those 2 single game days as a point where traders will be looking to exit. Of course if he keeps on scoring and starts winning PB as well then he should keep on growing. Euros is definitely realistic, and a summer transfer a possibility - he's always been highly rated and may just be starting to deliver on all his talent given his age.

  • @janner73 Players like him are the trades I like best. Early-mid 20’s, clear ability, form just below the players norm. Not many players’ performances ascend in a straight line through their early 20’s.

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