Understanding the current market
Can anyone help me understand the current market as it appears more volatile than when I joined at the turn of the year. I had a look at port gains this alvo and was quite nicely up and now much less so.
Appreciate people will be selling or flipping players, not whinging just trying to understand current state of play.
Trying to guess the market at the moment is a bit like trying to staple jelly and ice cream to a wall (i've tried both and failed before anyone asks)
@Pizarro there's not a huge amount of value at the top end of the market due to the low dividends offered so traders are looking at either lower priced potential future dividend winners for capital appreciation or chasing IPDs where, if you're quick, there is much more value. If you sit on your top end players, eventually there is inevitable profit but that's boring and not as lucrative as smashing through the lower levels.
I think at the moment they easiest way to get a grasp on the market is through comparative valuations to guage if there is much scope for movement, whether its rational or not. Thats just the way im playing, i realise its not for everyone.
Prices over time will be due a correction imo although im not saying this is in any way a failsafe strategy, we can all read the market wrong. Its inevitable the top end will get a pop in the short to medium term too at this current rate, the bottom to middle end can only push so far.
Having a look at the fixture list might help to gauge whether the players could be successful in the short to medium term might help too. And also have a look at their historical data, Whether it be pb or how often they played and/or scored goals this and/or last season, have they been injured or not, recent rises and falls, peak prices etc.
Also have a look on which days these players play and the times they play at. For example, playing at 3pm on a saturday afternoon keeps most players away from prying eyes, playing in a single match on a monday night when nobody else is playing tends to gain traction.
Just a few examples of comparative prices -
first choice, cheap forwards for big, non english clubs.
If your football knowledge is better than mine im sure you can do this down the lower reaches of the market easily, i just prefer to stick to what i know when comparing which leaves me in the upper lower to middle end of the market.
Just had a quick look through footy index scout free and the top performers for pb the last 30 days are up between about 15p and 60p in the last month, so maybe just buy a lot of the current pb performers.
@dionysusthyrsus Haha. How the hell is Oyarzabal cheaper than Osimhen, Boadu etc.
Why wouldn't he be? He has only returned 4p and the last return was nearly a year ago.
Osimhen has made returns already in last 30 days and Boadu is very young with a big future.
Makes perfect sense.
@Timothee-Atouba Fixtures so far have been gash for oyarzabal and sociedad. They turn quite sharply after sevilla and he will have prying eyes on him today and next Thursday. That spanish league looks erratic this year and if sociedad can put together a run i can see their players getting hyped up if they are up and around the top 4 come christmas.
I own all 3 you mentioned as Felix's peak price since he joined atletico signifies the craziness of the market atm. All of them i fancy to generate hype off the back of goals whether i agree with their prices or not.
@MrWh1te So you believe that Osimhen and Boadu are likely to win more dividends than Oyarzabal in their respective careers?
If so, fair enough.
Lower to mid price mids who look good for PB seem to be doing well
Joan Jordan, Erik Pulgar, Cyprien, Campana etc...
Maybe more people looking at PB stats
I couldn't tell you with any degree of knowledge, I just went on the stats so far, and the stats show Oyarzabal as both older and winning less divs.
You asked 'how the hell....'
I answered why.
If you believe Oyarzabal is gonna win more divs and is cheaper, keep it to yourself and keep topping up :)
Generally, I find if people really do believe in a player and are holding long term, it is in their interests to keep the prices as cheap as possible for as long as possible so they can get more money in.
And if people just want them to rise so they can sell, they don't believe in them as much as they want us to think they do ;p
If this is coming down to a question of divs. Bamba has the 2nd highest pb average this season of all forwards under 23 that have started 3 games or more. Isak has the 3rd highest pb average of all forwards under 21 that have started 3 games or more. Both are cheaper than the players you mentioned.
@dionysusthyrsus It should ALWAYS come down to a question of divs, either already earned or future earnings.
All these players with no divs and no chance of earning them should be worth 0p.
You can identify players you expect to do well. But if you want to sell, say Salah, to free up funds then you either take big loss ISing or they'll be stuck in the sell queue for a couple of weeks.
Crying out for order books right now.
@MrWh1te I agree it should but thats not the reality of the market atm. If it was, Isak and bamba wouldnt be sitting so low on that comparative list. They both need a goal or 2, to generate hype. Hype is whats primarily driving the market atm, not dividends.
Yes you are 100% correct.
So do you:
- Follow the hype and increase risk, as well as increased commission or
- Follow the long term strategy in the belief that it will come good in the end when the cycles change.
I believe in #2 and this is what I have followed and I have largely been avoiding the big losses others appear to have seen.
It seems to me (backed up by nothing more than my observations and certainly no facts) that the people seeing the biggest losses are those who have started chasing profits and following the hype (and who really should know better)
@MrWh1te I'm going with 1 atm and im outperforming the market the last 2.5 weeks after 3 weeks of a dwindling port on a daily basis holding premium dividend players. As @Ericali has mentioned many times I have no issues paying commission in this current market as its not driven primarily by divs even if me or anyone else believes it should be.
If i realise i have jumped on late in a trend ill back out at the first opportunity as with lewandowski yesterday at 1.72 when he was top of the forward pb table at the time. Bought at 1.65 early last week but barely moved off the back of a brace yesterday so i sold for a small profit despite him having good fixtures. He hit a peak of 1.76 before the cl game and 3 goals later hes dropped 10p.
I dont mind not being first in, but ill back myself not to be the last out. No longer will i have any sentimentality to any player i buy or how the market should behave. That cost 3 weeks and over £300, that was a steep learning curve. That said i do still own 3 premium players that are dying from a 14 player port and i will continue to hold.
I dont own halaand but dont mind him continuing to rise as he is the rather large overpriced horse pulling the carriage carrying some of my players along with him. If haaland stops rising off the back of goals and performances thats when ill know to leave some of those players behind. When the trend and confidence switches back to dividends and premiums ill end up back there.
In the meantime ill back myself in that chase and if i end up getting fucked over ill only have myself to blame, nobody pointed a gun at my head for taking that strategy just as nobody pointed a gun at anyones heads when buying premium dividend assets that are currently dwindling in price.
@dionysusthyrsus spot on mate.
As upsetting as it is everyday looking at my dwindling profits, I always set out for the long game and still believe this is the way to operate, certainly for me anyway.
I think the fact the platform is constantly growing with new users who have ever expanding selection of cheap players, it actually makes sense for the slope in the current market.
However, I am confident that this will stabilise soon
after yesterdays games, corrected. Bamba now has the highest pb average this season of all u23 forwards that have started at least 3 games. Given hes started 7, only scored once and doesnt have any gwg yet, thats seriously impressive. And hes on pens too. That chelsea defence cant come around quick enough