Overlooked PB players

  • One of the most interesting aspects of the early season trends on FI (aside from the rocky patch we're currently in), has been a return to PB-based trading. We have seen big rises in players who win PB and some monster PB scores under the new matrix really causing a stir on the index.

    I see this as a really positive development, but there is one aspect of it which is frustrating me - how reactively the market is behaving regarding PB. We are seeing players who win PB get big rises, and even some big rises during matches, after the dividend deadline. However, there have been a lot of players who have seen great PB scores coming in regularly, but because they have yet to win a dividend, they are seeing no investment.

    Two of the most frustrating players for me have been Sancho and Sterling. Both players are showing themselves to be big PB players this season so far, with 147 and 150 averages respectively - Sancho posting 3x200+ scores and Sterling posting 2 over 200. IndexGain shows their implied dividends to be higher than what they have currently returned, suggesting over time the dividends will come. Yet for both, we have seen their prices dropping. So many traders were griping in the past about both players' dividends, and we are now seeing that they are strongly in contention for divs, yet nobody is touching them.

    I would love to see traders doing their homework on players and trading proactively based on dividend potential, rather than just jumping on anyone who actually wins a dividend.

    A few other players with higher implied dividend figures than their current yield:

    Kimmich (divs 5p, implied divs 15p)
    Bernardo Silva (divs 0p, implied divs 10p)
    Sancho (divs 3p, implied divs 10p)
    Brozovic (divs 3p, implied divs 9p)
    Kroos (divs 0p, implied divs 8p)
    Trippier (divs 0p, implied divs 7p)
    Witsel (divs 0p, implied divs 6p)
    Sterling (divs 0p, implied divs 6p)

    Are there any other players who are looking great for PB this season, that the market has so far overlooked?

  • @Wotabeast Willi Orban is a bloody good PB player for not a lot of money.

    I don't even know what implied PB is, but he's already earned star def this season, is 59p, playing for a title challenging team, and I think was in bundesliga team of the year.

    Check out my post on pb players and pricing and there will be a few more.

  • I was looking at ben mendy today, thought of as a great pb defender but has just suffered with injuries.

    Return - 0p
    No scores over 200 ever.

    I thought it was interesting anyway.

  • @Moukoko I'm considering buying the whole Leipzig defence as they're pretty much all good for PB!

  • @Moukoko Yeah sorry perhaps that's not clear. Implied divs is the dividends a player is likely to have won on any given matchday, based on their PB score. IndexGain looks at scoring trends on single, double and treble matchdays and calculates the likelihood of each players' PB score winning divs.

    For example, a player scores 250 on a double matchday, but they are blown out of the water by a freak 300 PB score out of nowhere. IndexGain would adjudge that 250 score to be winning dividends on a "normal/average" double matchday and award an implied dividend to it. So it's a good way to cut through the anomalies and look at what might be likely to happen moving forward as the universe evens these things out over the course of the season.

  • Implied divs doesn't work for me... Having a high average is great, but if they aren't winning there is a reason. B Silva scored a hatrick and didn't come top 3 did he? The best way to use pb averages are on single game day where the pool is smaller.

    The implied divs is also flawed in that it only takes the score not the context... So better to use your own observations and instinct than those kind of statistics.

    I text my brother 5 mins before neymar scored last night to say he's on for star man if he scores. He was on 160 odd without a goal or assist or being on winning team. Gwg adds around 100 pts. So i knew how close he was to star man and top fwd.... But if it finished 0-0...implied divs wouldn't be showing for him

  • Timmy castagne. Just back from injury and got a bit of a rise yesterday to 64p on account of a goal. Posted 165 in his first start of the season which made him about the 4th highest scoring defender on a treble day in a drawn match against strong opposition. Should only kick on from there as he starts to get regular game ti.e again. CL and euros are just bonuses

  • @janner73 Yeah - good shout, but surely better to buy one rather than have all of them competing for one PB div every match! I found myself with 3 Inter midfielders recently and ended up getting rid of one because it just felt like they were competing against each other too much for PB.

    Who would you go for? Halstenberg and Orban look good so far but Mukiele and Konate have also posted decent PB averages.

  • @MickTurbo I bloody love him. Ipd on his first game back, great score and great cheekbones. The holy trinity!

  • @Vespasian32 I think a combination of using the data and your own observations works well - you can't watch every match after all.

    Of course it will have flaws, but in my opinion implied divs does a decent job of cutting through the anomalies and estimating dividend potential. For a case like Bernardo Silva i might still hesitate to get involved due to De Bruyne being a PB monster in the same team - so again a combination of the data and real world observation.

  • The three that have disappointed me the most so far this season are Akanji, Tah and Thiago Alcantara. Happy to hold all three and all three in the red and I am using dividends to top up. Just double checked on FI Scout, Akanji and Tah have posted disappointing PB scores recently so their drops aren't surprising but Alcantara has posted 2 of his 3 highest scores this month (one of those CL and not adjusted for multiplier) but he should post a PB win soon.

  • @Wotabeast said in Overlooked PB players:

    Who would you go for? Halstenberg and Orban look good so far but Mukiele and Konate have also posted decent PB averages.

    That's the problem I don't know. If I had to pick one probably Halstenberg mainly cos he's more likely to win at international level as well.

  • This is why that, instead of a numerical dividend rise, I'd be happy with second place PB awards too (maybe getting rid of Star Player to help fund it). There are some players who should win it, but are always superceded by some random having the game of their life who probably won't win PB or be anywhere near it for the rest of the season. Two chances of winning PB on double/triple match days should help these players' prices thrive.

  • @Martyn-B This is exactly my point - Thiago is another great PB player who has seen money flowing out of him despite an excellent start to the season PB-wise. He has the 6th highest PB average out of players who have started 5+ PB eligible games so far this season, yet so far he hasn't won any divs. IndexGain has his implied divs at 7p.

    If there was any sort of pro-active trading going on around PB at the moment, Thiago would be thriving, but he's only going down right now.

  • @Wotabeast he's won top defender once but no top player. He has increased over 50% in just over a month though

  • At the lower end (sub 80p) Jonjoe Kenny has already earned me a decent amount of divs compared to his buy price albeit the early divs where from IPDs but still game a top def to his name in a progressive Schalke side.

  • @Wotabeast Is rotation not a reason Thiago is dropping though? That Bayern midfield is competitive as well so is the reason he's dropping is that he's starting to get the same problem that Mahrez has at City? Posts good scores when he plays but may not play often enough to hold up his price? Don't think he can drop too much lower tho - I am waiting to buy just seeing how low he'll go.

  • @Moukoko Sorry - i was referring to Thiago Alcantara!

  • @Wotabeast

    Sensi and mahrez will get good scores this year too!

  • @janner73 I would wager Thiago will play more games than almost any other Bayern midfielder this season if he stays fit. Bit different to Mahrez i reckon who is clearly second choice. Bayern have 4 or 5 of a similar quality who are all competing for places.

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