Coutinho



  • Can anybody enlighten me as to why Coutinho’s price has dropped so dramatically?! He went for nigh on 150m, plays for one of the best sides in Europe with the best players and yet his price has dropped massively in the last month.

    You seem to make money on other players on the FI but your biggest holding seems to drop.
    Is there some sort of balancing act going on or am I just being paranoid! :(



  • Coutinho has gone from being Liverpool's best player, the headline act, a top boy, scouse wonder kid, Brazilian sensation and lost his day to day EPL status with no TABLOID rumours or MB opportunities and now he's third or fourth best player at Barcelona which also makes PB very difficult to achieve at his own club let alone compared with others....

    I take a simple approach to investing in FI... pick a teams best player for the best chance of PB... pick a teams most talked about player for the best chance of MB.... and the rest will follow..... Sadly Coutinho is not Barca's best player, nor is he their most talked about player??



  • @Robbo1978 said in Coutinho:

    Can anybody enlighten me as to why Coutinho’s price has dropped so dramatically?! He went for nigh on 150m, plays for one of the best sides in Europe with the best players and yet his price has dropped massively in the last month.

    You seem to make money on other players on the FI but your biggest holding seems to drop.
    Is there some sort of balancing act going on or am I just being paranoid! :(

    Ddemand and therefore prices for players on FI derives from their anticipated dividend yield. At Liverpool, Coutinho was picking up lots of UK media interest (for media buzz) and he was the main man, playmaker, on free kicks, corners, occasional penalties (all good for performance buzz).

    You need to make a judgement call on whether he has the same MB and PB potential at Barcelona. I would suggest not.

    He’s still a great player playing for a great side, but FI rewards are geared slightly differently. He had more value as the main man in an English league, even if he's now playing for an arguably better side.



  • Thanks for the insight guys and I think your method of picking the best player from each team is a good one and I’ll try that formula going forward.
    I’m just a bit gutted I sold Pogba right before he rocketed a couple of weeks back and the Coutinho problem just compounded it :(

    In your opinion, do you think holding onto Coutinho would be the better option bearing in mind I’ve lost £1.05 per future now but with the WC looming large, it’s a good chance he will creep up? I want to sell but it’s quite a big loss for me right now.



  • Not knowing how the game would play at the time (it was my first transfer window), I would say Coutinho is my biggest regret so far... I hold a few nothing major but in hindsight, I would have kept until the day of the transfer (as i did with Sanchez) and sold.

    Now i keep him in vein hope of his form improving (which looking at Suarez for Barca it's been tough to get my money back and he scores a goal a game with regular PB wins) and hope that he could light up the WC with Brazil (which is slim but possible). So will review in July - but realistically I probably should have cut my losses 2/3 weeks ago.

    The fact he scored a worldy at the weekend gives me a glimmer of hope so i would like to say hold for now - although in future if player x leaves for big money from team a to team b then I will get rid at his highest spike (which is most likely the day or thereabouts) when the transfer goes through and not keep especially if that club he joins have players that are more media dominant and better in ability.



  • @Robbo1978 if it was me I'd stick, because he is a class player, he plays for brasil, and Barca, which is a plus for any player even if your not top dog, and footie index is all about peaks and drops, catch em as they drop as we all know, I can't see much more of a drop but I can see him rising stick in there mate, you may not get all your £1 per future back but hopefully recoup most off it, I think your in a more to gain less to lose regarding his current price, that's my view lol, and as to making money my strategy is pick mainly strikers and think about the World Cup, and if things are going well and your making money try and think about getting out with profit, not always but sell while people want to buy.



  • @dannypea
    Re MB, bear in mind the media buzz is based on british media. Barring Naymar, Messi and Ronaldo, overseas players have no real media value outside of transfer windows. Therefore coutinho media value died when he left the Premier League.

    Picking the most high profile player per club works if we are talking top 6 premier league clubs but really there are 5 to 10 united players with more media value than the top profile player in nearly all of serie a clubs.



  • Regarding coutinho, with the world cup coming his price is probably right now. May even rise a bit before the world cup so no obvious answer to whether to sell or not.



  • @Robbo1978 you only make the loss if you sell & he could/should have a fantastic WC. hopefully a few buyers beforehand too



  • I didn’t realise the MB was solely based on the UK market so that’s good to know :)

    It’s interesting hearing people’s strategies with regards to making money on the FI because it’s definitely there to be had, just need to get over the heavy losses and not be too frustrated by it.

    Seeing 90% of your portfolio in the green but one player swallowing your whole profit is hard to stomach though!

    Thanks for your comments guys, much appreciated



  • @mike778

    Yeah agree EPL MB is fine but usually orientated to 'the big six' whilst Real Madrid, Barca, and at the moment PSG (thanks to Neymar) pretty much hog the rest of the columns... Juve, Bayern, Napoli, Dortmund have pretty much ZERO buzz when it comes to the UK media!!!



  • @Robbo1978 said in Coutinho:

    I didn’t realise the MB was solely based on the UK market so that’s good to know :)

    It’s interesting hearing people’s strategies with regards to making money on the FI because it’s definitely there to be had, just need to get over the heavy losses and not be too frustrated by it.

    Seeing 90% of your portfolio in the green but one player swallowing your whole profit is hard to stomach though!

    Thanks for your comments guys, much appreciated

    Thats why the vast majority of the most valued players are premier league based.

    People compare lukaku to lewandowski. If lukaku scores a winner in a big prem game he maybe takes media. Lewandowski could score 15 goals in a bundesliga title decider and he probably gets nothing. There is no comparision - lukaku is miles more valuable FI wise.

    Its also why you have to be wary of players leaving the premier league. Coutinho was good cash cow when milking dividends but you had to be ready to get out fast.



  • @mike778 said in Coutinho:

    @Robbo1978 said in Coutinho:

    I didn’t realise the MB was solely based on the UK market so that’s good to know :)

    It’s interesting hearing people’s strategies with regards to making money on the FI because it’s definitely there to be had, just need to get over the heavy losses and not be too frustrated by it.

    Seeing 90% of your portfolio in the green but one player swallowing your whole profit is hard to stomach though!

    Thanks for your comments guys, much appreciated

    Thats why the vast majority of the most valued players are premier league based.

    People compare lukaku to lewandowski. If lukaku scores a winner in a big prem game he maybe takes media. Lewandowski could score 15 goals in a bundesliga title decider and he probably gets nothing. There is no comparision - lukaku is miles more valuable FI wise.

    Its also why you have to be wary of players leaving the premier league. Coutinho was good cash cow when milking dividends but you had to be ready to get out fast.

    Unless lewandowski moves to prem of course which is rumoured



  • @NewUser92251
    Thanks for the advice fella



  • Whether to sell or hold Coutinho is a tough one as no one can really predict where he will settle. He has less of a MB pull than Bale (£3.50 at the time of transfer, up to £3.70 due to predictable media attention). He scores better PB than Isco (£2.68) and plays more often. However he doesn't score anywhere near as well as Kroos (£2.31). Both players will also have their day in the transfer window, particularly Kroos who will be linked to United all summer.

    I think at the time everyone expected him to settle at around £2.50 and I think that theory still holds up. That said, you are right with regards to the WC and he is a big player for Brazil. He is only really up against Willian, Casemiro and Augusto (Paulinho if he IPO's - will b a big threat to Coutinho if he does). He is also as we speak attracting transfer rumours so you might well see a rise in the coming months.

    My guess is you might be able to trade out for £3.50 if you're lucky, and after the WC he will settle at around £2.60. If you get £3.25 + I would seriously consider getting out - doesn't matter what you paid for him, the objective now is maximising your return.



  • @Pierrey2129
    Sound advice and you’re probably right about his peak being around £3.50. If he can get there I’ll pull the plug then watch his price rise just like Pogba’s a few weeks back haha!
    I suppose the beauty of the FI is the unpredictability of it all and if making money was easy we would all be millionaires.

    I just can’t seem to make any profit because little Phillipe has taken it all! He peaked at around £5.50 which would have been an amazing return but that’s my FI inexperience showing because I didn’t sell when he went to Barca.
    It’s good to know more about how this all works so I really appreciate the comments guys.



  • @Pierrey2129 said in Coutinho:

    Whether to sell or hold Coutinho is a tough one as no one can really predict where he will settle. He has less of a MB pull than Bale (£3.50 at the time of transfer, up to £3.70 due to predictable media attention). He scores better PB than Isco (£2.68) and plays more often. However he doesn't score anywhere near as well as Kroos (£2.31). Both players will also have their day in the transfer window, particularly Kroos who will be linked to United all summer.

    I think at the time everyone expected him to settle at around £2.50 and I think that theory still holds up. That said, you are right with regards to the WC and he is a big player for Brazil. He is only really up against Willian, Casemiro and Augusto (Paulinho if he IPO's - will b a big threat to Coutinho if he does). He is also as we speak attracting transfer rumours so you might well see a rise in the coming months.

    My guess is you might be able to trade out for £3.50 if you're lucky, and after the WC he will settle at around £2.60. If you get £3.25 + I would seriously consider getting out - doesn't matter what you paid for him, the objective now is maximising your return.

    I think one of the main problems with PC is consumer confidence and buzz wins like already pointed out he’s a safe haven currency whilst at Liverpool transfer hype wins him a fortune in buzz then nothing no PB or MB he continues to nose dive and there’s nothing other than a month of World Cup to show any value to the guy then after World Cup the same situation after too. Paulinho IPO promo would be good if they announced him being IPO low to see where he ended up naturaly throwing both the two of them into a pahrana lottery has to price and one price effecting the other. I think pre World Cup Paulinho could be the most antisapated IPO ever for many reasons however may not be good for PC holders unless he hit the IPO ground running other theory not ipo paulinho till PC settles at a price.. interesting debate but at moment I think now the original £2-50 forecast is coming within range but he reallly needs a PB or MB win for consumer confidence to jump on with fresh money. Other problem being with someone like Neymar due to his Buzz quality’s any drop will be shored up by holders fresh money! Where has with PC even his own holders don’t have the confidence to top him up till they see fresh money come in or buzz wins..my view


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