Potential strategies



  • Hi all, I've been on the platform since Feb this year and have been reading the forums daily pretty much ever since, I've now decided to join in the fun. I have experienced the highs and lows of the index, experimented with different strategies, some positive some not, and I'm now interested in having a low maintenance portfolio focused solely around dividends, with CA being simply a bonus. I want to get your thoughts and opinions on new potential strategies with a 12k budget.

    I'm mainly interested in racking up as many dividends as possible, and I'm happy to go high risk.

    Strategy 1 (high risk) - Buy roughly 1000 Neymar and 1000 Messi, ton of dividends, CA increase with Neymar for a few years, slow CA decrease for Messi (I would possibly look into selling Messi end of season and plow the money into KDB/Sterling for Euros).

    Strategy 2 (mid risk) - Buy around 300 Sterling, Sancho, KDB, Neymar, Messi, Mbappe, TAA and have them rack up dividends and slow CA up to the euros (Messi and Ney excluded).

    Strategy 3 (low risk) - Buy 100 shares in all of the above, as well as 30/40 other sought after players in the £2 - £6 bracket, Odeegard, B Fernandes, Malen etc. I find this risky-ish as they're all over-inflated in my opinion, but the way the index is going now that doesn't seem to matter.

    What are your thoughts on the above 3 strategies?

    Appreciate all feedback!



  • I like number 2. 1 I wouldnt have the balls for. 3 well I dont like holding 100 players. If I have 100 and they rocket I'm fuming.



  • I would suggest strategy 2 or 3. Diversification is important and increases chance of dividends which is where you want your returns. A lot of money in one player and one bad injury or absence can flummox your plan



  • Cheers both. I think I'm leaning more towards #2 so far, seems the most sensible considering the euros next year.

    Although the dividends #1 could bring in is tempting.. both going to be PB monsters this season, as well as the inevitable MB here and there. I don't see Messi dropping below £5 by the end of the season and I only see Neymar slowly going back up..



  • @Heinstein it's kind of my end goal to just have big holds in the elite players but to help me get there I'm currently employing multiple strategies including IPD flips, injured players for definite cap app, youngn's for hopefully quick cap app, just to increase my spending power on the big guns when I take profit from these others.

    Short term my port looks really untidy but come the summer I hope to be where I'm aiming for. Currently just shy of 12k



  • @MickTurbo that sounds like a solid plan. I've never touched IPD flips myself as I've always had more of a low maintenance style, however I have definitely chopped and changed my portfolio way too much and spent a stupid amount on commission, something I'm looking to change now and just sit and rack up the dividends. I think you're right about holding the elite players tbf, with bonuses/promotions + more exposure I think they could all really rocket by the time the euros come round.



  • @Heinstein I would say no. 3.

    Spread the risk. 1 is far too risky for me and you are effectively putting all of your cap app hope into Neymar. A big risk considering he's already the most expensive player on the index and judging by the FIG cast last week with FI, there isn't likely to be a dividend increase any time soon. Difficult to see how he will increase much.

    To make that work you would also need to time your exit on Messi very well. My guess is he will Plummet as soon as Barcelona are knocked out of CL and/ or the final La Liga game. He's going nowhere over the summer and unlikely to return any MB. Having said, there isn't a better player around than him and would always want him as part of my portfolio. Either way, definitely don't leave it until the 'end of the season'.

    What makes you say the £2-£6 players are inflated? I think you should definitely broaden your selections to include this range and also sub £1 players? So much value at the lower end of the market and potential for cap app. It does require some research but if you're investing £12k....

    Use Neymar and Messi for dividends and sub £1 players for cap app? Balance the portfolio out a little.

    The 'elite' are having a rough time on the index at the moment so I'd take a closer look before you commit.



  • @Heinstein
    1 is too risky for my liking. You never know what's going to happen and putting all that into a couple of players would concern me greatly.
    2 is exactly what I'd love to do but don't have the cash right now.
    3 isn't exactly low risk for reasons you describe. A lot of these youngsters are pumped to fuck with no real justification for a lot of them. It's too volatile for me.



  • @Metropolis Appreciate your input. By end of the season I meant a few months prior to it, slowly listing shares as he rises after a PB win or something, however as you said it needs to be timed pretty perfectly to benefit.

    The only time I've made substanstial profit from sub £1 players was Skov. Ended up making around £600 on him but in all fairness I didn't do much research myself, spotted him on a thread being pumped pretty hard and I went for it, thankfully it paid off.

    I see your point about the elite players, however do you think this time next year they're going to be where they are now or lower? I think higher. As I said, I'm looking to have a low maintenance portfolio focused mainly on dividends.

    I think the rises the youth are getting now is crazy, Martinelli up 57p tonight without winning PB and will most likely not return any dividends this season, or any at all in the next 3 seasons if kept as a 3 year hold, yet he's almost half the price of Sterling.. if he goes up anymore, naturally Sterling will have too as well as he actually returns dividends and is world class.

    I may opt for #2 with the odd few younger players that I really believe have the potential to rocket.



  • @dean73 Yeah I agree I think I'm going to go for #2.

    By low risk I meant the way the index is now, I really don't see this trend of youngsters rocketing stopping anytime soon, therefore I get the feeling my CA would naturally go up with most of them, however they won't be returning me many/any dividends at all which is not what I'm after.

    If they continue to rise, the big boys will inevitably need to as well.



  • Low risk would be to just buy players going to euro2020 they will get pumped hard at some point at all rise.

    At the moment its champions league.europa youth that is dominating but in a few months when euro2020 is nearing it will be all over twitter and the forum.



  • Strategy 2 or 3 but forget messi and neymar and anyone else not European. Concentrate on players likely to be at the Euros that also have one other positive to buying them. Wether that be a good PB or potential transfer spec (to pb league). There will come a point in the season where players start to get rid of none European players and the only trend anyone can 100% guarantee is that the Euros is going to be massive for the index.

    Maddison, haverts, Fabian Ruiz, oyarzabal, Bruno Fernandez, chiese, depay, van de beek, Brekalo, Rashica, tsygankov, tah, carrasco are a few examples.



  • Absolutely agree with @Dj and this is what I've been working on, euros players with multiple upsides.

    I'm trying for a def/mid/fwd from every major nation to give me a huge chance of pb/mb every day in the tournament as well as a lot of the time between now and then. Also if I can get anywhere near completing this strategy before new year I expect to see plenty of cap app



  • @MickTurbo I know it’s not your style but I currently have 50 futures in just under 70 players that fit this criteria. Every deposit between now and then is going on topping them up with maybe a few additions along the way. Obviously there will be a few that do not qualify but then at least they have the good Pb and/or transfer speculation incoming to hold there price up.



  • @Dj yeh I've been as high as the mid 50's but it's not for me personally, I like elite players in 200's-500's. I see the appeal though because some of those I trimmed have already won PB this season. No matter how clever you are I think you need the kind of numbers youve got to feel like your regularly in with a chance of pb.

    As you say, it's the players who dont qualify you might take a loss on, therefore their PB becomes essential. Odegaard is one of my big holds and norway arent certainties but I'm not worried cos hes looking very PB friendly and the EPL links are coming daily at the minute so if theh do qualify I'll consider it a bonus, same again with tierney



  • Number 1 for me. Quality over quantity and having the two best players in the world giving you dividends all the time makes sense to me.



  • @MickTurbo who else do you hold that fits this criteria? And who is on your radar ?



  • @Tom77 said in Potential strategies:

    Low risk would be to just buy players going to euro2020 they will get pumped hard at some point at all rise.

    At the moment its champions league.europa youth that is dominating but in a few months when euro2020 is nearing it will be all over twitter and the forum.

    Not saying the whole euro 20 boost won't happen, in part it already is... But I don't understand why? Guys like sterling are playing 3 eligible pb games a week now and people aren't interested... So why all of a sudden is the market going to jump on for potentially 4-5 games in summer.



  • @Vespasian32 said in Potential strategies:

    @Tom77 said in Potential strategies:

    Low risk would be to just buy players going to euro2020 they will get pumped hard at some point at all rise.

    At the moment its champions league.europa youth that is dominating but in a few months when euro2020 is nearing it will be all over twitter and the forum.

    Not saying the whole euro 20 boost won't happen, in part it already is... But I don't understand why? Guys like sterling are playing 3 eligible pb games a week now and people aren't interested... So why all of a sudden is the market going to jump on for potentially 4-5 games in summer.

    Because going by the World Cup experience on here every player and his dog got a pump going into the World Cup. It will be all over twitter.
    It will be hyped up you can guarantee it.



  • @Vespasian32 said in Potential strategies:

    Not saying the whole euro 20 boost won't happen, in part it already is... But I don't understand why? Guys like sterling are playing 3 eligible pb games a week now and people aren't interested... So why all of a sudden is the market going to jump on for potentially 4-5 games in summer.

    I don't think the top end is gonna get the Euro 2020 boost that everyone thinks. It will be big but all the twitter pumping will be focussed on 30 days IPDs and the sub £2 market - that is where the big rises will come for Euro 2020 in my opinion. Unless England win the dam thing and the likes of Kane and Sterling would win MB for weeks then I don't see the higher priced players involved in the Euros getting a boost at all. Not what I would have thought a few months ago but things change.
    We're going into an international break now and Kane, Sterling, Griezmann all dropping - as you say why would Euro 2020 be any different for the top end.


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