Investing in players over £4?



  • Hey Guys

    Does anyone agree that investing in anyone £4 and over will not generate worthy profit? Its seems like the only reason you should buy players in this range is for MB returns??

    Also what will happen when a large majority of the players reach this £4 range, will this effect market growth?

    Cheers

    AndyP



  • I've been saying it a while @AndyP32...

    The value is players from zero to £3 or £3.50.

    The rest need a dividend increase.



  • I don’t see the point in buying players over £4 and there’s little capital growth and the dividends don’t make up for it. Invested heavily in the RB team players. Currently up 550% on Hwang and over 100% on others including Daka and Minamino, 50% on Werner. It’s not possible to make those returns on higher priced players.



  • I hate to say this, but do not buy any players over £5 at the moment. There is hardly any value in any of them without a substantial dividend increase.

    The ONLY 2 exceptions in my view right now is Neymar and Messi. They are the only ‘good’ holds in this current market.



  • The highest price player I own is Depay at just over £3 I think, and thats because I bought in at £1.80 odd.
    I wouldn't be looking at the high end for at least another few months, then hope to get on at a low before a dividend increase.

    Saying that my port of lower priced players has been dropping off the last few days so what do I know!



  • I’ve made 30% on Sterling.

    I see it a bit like a stock portfolio, players like Sterling you are guaranteed a reasonable but not exceptional return.

    Lower value players have the potential for greater % returns but at a higher risk (so greater potential loses).

    Sterling has a beta value of 1.3, lower value 2-5.



  • Advice above is good..Market is playing catch up at the moment and still 6-12 months to go before it catches up with higher end players and then things will start moving again for higher priced players imho..



  • @AndyP32 depends on how you look at it, I believe there is value as when FI do a div increase this is where the money goes so you could argue theres value and you get on board first you're laughing



  • @Shippers I agree if you’re planning on playing the long game getting on the top players down seems sensible; I’ve got no more spare cash which is frustrating.

    I don’t have the time for flipping so happy to see where my current port takes me in 24-36 months.



  • @AndyP32 in my opinion Messi is the best value player on the index right now as he will return regular dividends and as far as MB goes he is one of the few players that i know that is unlikely to have stories removed for bad behaviour. But otherwise id have to agree that players above £4 are currently risky purchases id maybe even go as far to say that over £3 is still a bit expensive



  • I will offer a counter view to others and suggest it's completely viable to buy a £4+ player if you envision it to be a multi year hold and you're looking for a low maintenance option. (I.e rarely checking or modifying your portfolio).

    Yes you may see a drop in value over the short term but this isn't realised until your ready to actually sell, so becomes almost irrelevant.

    Over the course of a few years you will be earning dividends which are realised instantly, also at some point over the next few years dividends should increase which in turn will see the top end (£4+ players) grow in value.

    Yes the value currently is in the lower end of the market, but the top still remains viable for long term holds.



  • It all depends how you want to play the game. There are players at the top end who should remain there but the capital growth will be limited. You should get more dividends, at the moment the yield is regarded as pretty poor but would anyone be surprised to see the likes of Neymar and Messi return 10-15% based on current prices in dividends while maintaining their prices? You won't get that in a bank and it is pretty safe barring injury.

    If you are willing to look a little lower down then there is definitely bigger profit to be had, there are dozens of players who will add 50% or more to their price over a month or two which destroys the return you'll get from the top guys. You have to know when to sell as without as regular dividends coming in that is the only way to profit from these types but that is part of the fun.



  • @AndyP32 Contrary to some comments on here, i believe that the more we see the £4+ players drop, the sooner they are going to look very good value. While the prices of the top players are dropping their dividend yields become more and more attractive. There will come a moment when the dividend yields of the top players look attractive enough that those who are really looking will consider it worth jumping on, and then it is likely there will be a cap app knock-on effect as more people decide to jump on the trend.

    For example, Neymar's yield last season of £1.17 in divs - if you work that out as a percentage of his peak price (£8.22) it is a 14% yield. Compared to his price now, the same yield in divs would be 16%. I would also wager Neymar will return more in divs this season than he did last season. If you look at the example of Pogba, the yield is even more impressive given the price drop (though this assumes he will win similar divs this season compared to las, which is a big assumption).

    Added to this is the fact that, as you allude to, the rest of the market is catching up. When you have Greenwood, Haland, Malen and the rest of the youth prospect/non-PB brigade crashing into the top price bracket, then the players who actually guarantee you a dividend yield start to look attractive again.

    I fundamentally believe Neymar, Messi, Pogba, and to a slightly lesser extent Sancho, Mbappe, Sterling, Kane and Salah, deserve to be the highest priced players on the index. If the current trend continues then they will be overtaken before too long by more risky prospects - which i believe will not happen. I think there will be a moment when the market realises that the top players represent value again, and we will start to see the ship turn around.

    You are definitely right however, that to be £4+ a player needs to have MB potential. I believe the top value for pure PB players at the moment is not really higher than £3.50 (based on very rough estimates, a player would need to win 8-10+ PB divs every season for at least the next 5 seasons to be worth anywhere near more than that). This is why i believe De Bruyne is currently significantly overpriced.



  • @Joev said in Investing in players over £4?:

    If you are willing to look a little lower down then there is definitely bigger profit to be had, there are dozens of players who will add 50% or more to their price over a month or two which destroys the return you'll get from the top guys. You have to know when to sell as without as regular dividends coming in that is the only way to profit from these types but that is part of the fun.

    This is absolutely spot on. There is big cap app to be made lower down the market which blows everything else out of the water but you have to time your exit and not get too greedy. For all of these people posting huge profit figures on cheaper players, you very rarely see any actual sales - more often than not it is still held in the player. Many people will fail to maximise profit on more volatile lower-end players and see their "profit" evaporate as prices drop back after spiking. It is amazing when you time it - i sold my 3-month holding in Mahrez yesterday at 232% profit, but for every one of those there is also a Jovic, who i held on to for too long and saw profit fritter away.

    I believe the top end players prices will stabilise soon, and maybe even start to creep up again as the market catches up underneath them. And all the while you will have that stream of dividends coming in, which is real cash into your balance.



  • Top market can't keep dropping and the £3+ market keep raising. I've just brought into hazard (pb chances, euros and CL or Europa if mess group up!!!) Down 15p share this week imagine after Xmas be a prime hold, same naymar,sterling, etc



  • @AndyP32

    Its a matter of.opinion but i think its better investing in players who you think are young enough and will perform and as a result yield a rise. I have around 15 players in my portfolio.. . At least half of which have had decent rises.. . Other a little drop but over significant profits. .. e.g my rises include sensi, mahrez, barella, hagi, ceballos, brekalo, isak, oyarzabal etc and others who have not rose as yet or dropped include richarlison, alli, jesus, bale, j rodriguez etc .. . All below £3 players.. .



  • @Zola25 You forgot Reus😉



  • @AndyP32
    I think wer going to start seeing the top end increases soon, depending on who starts taking the lime light as the game starts flowing



  • @kaka8 imo once the rest cannot be pushed any nearer the top end(nearly there now) the index will stagnate(it has for six weeks bar an artificial spike) until there’s a div increase.



  • @DW

    Agree with this. It’s all about the strategy you employ. I’ve always been a long term holder, so as disappointing as some of the recent drops are, I’ve seen it all before and maybe players like pogba won’t reach their dizzy heights of yesteryear, but by holding for 2 years now, his dividend returns are triple the overall price paid for the shares. The best one is Messi, I have x100 shares at £2.50 and he has returned over £750 in dividends over the two years I’ve held him, so regardless of capital appreciation or dips in market he has already given back way more than I put in.

    With regards to current trends, there is value in lower end players and I have made a few investments recently too, leading to an even more diversified portfolio. However with this approach be prepared to have more hits and misses and be more proactive with buy/sells at right time. Definitely adds interest to platform and a bit more volatility.

    Best of luck to all fellow traders and best advice is not to panic when you see some red, think the platform is on the way down and sell. Stock markets always have high and lows, and just like stock markets you can try and play them with low buys and high sells, or you can trust in the growth that the platform will continue to do and that inevitably prices will stabilise and rise long term.

    Best wishes and a good trading weekend!


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