The Drops



  • My port has taken a bit a hit over the last few days, im still up on pre-bonus but not by a great deal. My port is a little top heavy with large value players (inc Pogba).

    Is the drop this week down to the 10%? Are people still expecting a more significant drop still to come in Oct?



  • @NewUser384837 Difficult one this, as I expected the higher priced players to have levelled out but they keep dropping.

    Can't really help you as it seems impossible to predict the market at the moment, especially at the top end.

    Certainly for Pogba, his recent injury and lack of form have contributed to his fall, and the way United are performing has seen the value of most of Ole's players drop with no sign of stopping at the moment.

    Could still drop further as most United players have had a premium just because they are M. Utd players. If investors are starting to sell then could be a whole world of pain for the value of these futures.



  • I've dealt shares on stock market sometimes the Market Maker's will do a tree shake i.e. dropping the price dramatically in a share thus tiggering people's stop/loss. This kind of feels like that In terms of making long term holders panic sell some of the big boyz they are holding thus stimulating the market. It doesn't really pay index for people sat on players to long.



  • Ah market goes up and down but it's all cool there is wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drops_(confectionery)



  • Thanks for the info, im fine with drops, i doubt id go as far as a loss position.

    Im a relative noob but have faith the market will grow and ill get a decent return longterm.



  • @Chicken-Dog said in The Drops:

    I've dealt shares on stock market sometimes the Market Maker's will do a tree shake i.e. dropping the price dramatically in a share thus tiggering people's stop/loss. This kind of feels like that In terms of making long term holders panic sell some of the big boyz they are holding thus stimulating the market. It doesn't really pay index for people sat on players to long.

    @Chicken-Dog have u seen the discussion about deltas in the pogba plummet thread? What you've said here might be of interest



  • there are no market makers on here lol



  • @MickTurbo I'll have a look at that thread then if I get chance 👍



  • @Chicken-Dog you can skip straight past the first 399 comments as that's just the usual pogba tribal stuff. It starts at 400



  • @Long-Haul-Col said in The Drops:

    Pogba, his recent injury and lack of form have contributed to his fall

    His price is largely built on his MB dividends return; last couple of years he won the world cup, played really well for club & country, had a long lasting media fallout with Mourinho (& his agent stirring it) & eventually said he wants to leave the worlds favourite global media club - all this resulted in bumper MB returns driving his price upto £8+ (fully justified IMO). I bought him at £3.50 last pre season (pre SS equivalent) & sold at £7.40 + divis, probably a bit early but still well above current levels, as I couldn't see him maintaining his MB winning ratio.

    So simply to maintain his price he needed to replicate similar levels of dividend returns, however, Mourinho has left & OGS is a conciliator not confrontational manager, chances/risk of him not being at Utd much longer are significantly higher & his form has been patchy & often out injured. The resultant lack of dividends (compared to last 12 months record) has meant his price has fallen in response, which was all too predictable, in fact many of us said it would happen but were dismissed as scaremongers. If he does leave Man Utd in the next couple of windows he could drop below £4 or if he signs a new contract he may stabilise around £5 but until he starts winning more dividends his price doesn't deserve to rise at all.

    A very risky hold even at £6 IMHO with a significant chance of £4 within 12 months & a reasonable chance of £5 with a similar chance of staying at £6 & yes he will win some dividends but probably less than over recent years.



  • @NewUser159387 £5 with a new contract? Probably the dumbest thing I've ever read on the forum. Until he starts winning more dividends? he has the most in 2019 and all time.



  • @NallyCat

    He was £3.50 just over 12 months ago (actually started at £2.60 but my average was £3.50) & yes there's been platform growth & he had a bumper year of dividends but is he likely to win a similar amount in the next 12 months? No chance & top end prices are generally driven & supported by dividend wins (or the future prospect of them) his future is to win less for the reasons above so it follows his price should fall in response (as it has) simple market forces. You may think it will rise? If so why? Different opinions are what makes the market but it helps if you can provide a hint of your reasoning instead of just rubbishing the alternate view.

    His 2018/19 winnings are what drove the price from £3.50 to £8 - where his price goes from here will be driven by the dividends he wins going forward.



  • @NewUser159387 You make some good points but i think to assume Pogba won't return a similar amount of divs to the last 12 months is a big assumption. In the last year he had periods of stagnation where he wasn't winning a lot, and then periods where he was absolute media gold. FootballBuzz website is down so i can't check right now but i think in the period immediately prior to Mourinho's sacking and everything going downhill at Utd he was very quiet on the divs front.

    In the next 12 months it's highly possible that OGS could be sacked and the attention could fall back on Pogba in that event, the Euros are coming up, plus contract and transfer speculation will keep the divs rolling in. Just because Pogba is in a quiet period right now doesn't mean he will continue to be.

    Truth is that with Pogba's div return he is/was arguably undervalued at £8, let alone at his current price, so i think even if his div return is slightly diminished over the next year, his price already reflects that and he is certainly good value as a long-term hold (12 months +) at this current price.



  • @Wotabeast

    You may well be correct, however, if he leaves in Jan or perhaps the Summer where do you see his price? If & when he's not at Utd his MB will plummet.



  • @NewUser159387 I will add, at his current price Pogba would need to win £1.17 in divs over the next 12 months to make a 20% yield (considered to be a very good dividend yield). That is almost exactly half of the divs he won in the last 12 months.

    I would say there is a very strong chance he will win more than £1.17 in divs over the next 12 months.



  • @NewUser159387 As i just mentioned he would only need to win half of the divs of the past year to return a 20% yield at his current price. I believe that if Pogba leaves to join Real Madrid or PSG he will still win at least half of the divs he won in the last year - he will be joining either one of two of the most media friendly clubs in the world and he is one of the top 5 most media friendly players.

    That is a judgement we all need to make - in my eyes, even with a move away from Man Utd, he looks very likely to return a strong dividend yield. Whether the market agrees with me remains to be seen.



  • @Wotabeast

    He won the world cup, played really well for club & country, had a long lasting media fallout with Mourinho - 2 out of the 3 won't happen this year. These were major drivers for the media stories which lead to his MB dividends, just where is the volume of stories necessary to win the expanded MB going to come from?

    It's clear FI are reducing the influence of MB on the platform so even the number of chances of winning are significantly reduced this year irrespective of who you think will win it. Overall just far too many uncertainties & definite negatives plus a massive overhang of recent buyers now holders sat on him at a current loss who may well see any rise as an opportunity to sell. He's still a massive risk at £6.



  • Great yield before and probably a very good yield in future. But you’re swimming against the ferocious tide of trend and sentiment which for the time being makes him a bad hold, which logically is quite ridiculous because even with slightly lesser media interest and other variables he’s still one of the best value holds on the index.



  • @NewUser159387 Okay so I've just had a quick look at your comment history and you say Sterling a fellow premium player is a solid hold, surprise surprise a Pogba scaremonger also wants MB completely phased out.

    Lets compare Sterling and Pogba then, age difference is a year and half, pretty negligible.

    Pogba £5.87, 7 PB wins (5 star player), 158 MB first places.

    Sterling £6.10, 4 PB wins (0 star player) 19 MB first places, around half of them lucky (for lack of a better word) racism abuse stories.

    Lets see you try and justify Sterling price then if Pogba is such a bad hold, Sterling has awful dividend returns in comparison to price, likely at a dead MB club for the rest of his career, not going to be England's main man with Kane captain/pens. I appreciate Sterling is in the form of his life but If you think Sterling will win more dividends that Pogba going forward you're deluded.



  • @NallyCat Two words: cognitive dissonance. Another two words: confirmation bias.

    All of us traders are guilty of both of these things to some extent, but i do feel there are a lot of very misleading assumptions dictating current trading on Pogba and the top 10 in general.

    As i mentioned above, at Pogba's current price he would only need to win half of the dividends he gained over the last 12 months to return a 20% yield. He's a very attractive price right now if traders can cut through all of the noise and look at things objectively. The same can be said for many of the top players who have really dropped off in price, especially as the rest of the market catches up with them and traders realise that not all of these players can/will not make it at the top level.


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