Friday 2nd March - IPO Preview

  • Tomorrow's IPO's took some analysing as the majority of them tick a few boxes and the prices are low enough to get you thinking.

    We've all been waiting for the most obvious missing person on the system in Paulinho, would have been a frenzy at the originally intended 60p but he's still attractive at £1. The pluses are he's a mainstay in the Brazilian setup, at a top grade team, stats and goals are decent. Negatives are he only plays 90 mins 25% of the time, he's nearly 30, unlikely to move to a better team. So where you pitch him is very difficult to predict with Busquets at 1.80, Rakitic at 1.20 and Iniesta at 80p all for varying reasons. However we definitely know there's enough hype to see him explode into life when he launches. I suspect he's settle about 1.40 putting my balls on the line.

    Adel Taarabt is one of the biggest enigma's I've ever seen in recent times, a maverick who could do magical things at times but failed to consistently deliver. As a Spurs fan I was excited to see his name in the starting 11 but his attitude constantly let him down. Approaching the end of his career reports suggest that he's now maturing into what he should have with Sevilla contemplating a move. Has the WC with Morocco coming up and I wouldn't be surprised if he impressed. So 40p is quite cheap in my opinion as he's capable of turning it on from time to time.

    My dark horse for tomorrow is Johan Mohica, not sure how close he is to making the Colombian team and he's played LW as well as LB so he's obviously very attacking but I don't know what position he played when he hit 9 goals in 66 games for Valladolid. Girona are fighting for Europe and goal scoring defenders are golden on the index so at 30p he definitely shouldn't be ignored. Only 25 too.

    Others that "might" be worth a dabble are Carrillo at Watford (WC with Peru, decent repuation, only 26 and you don't get many goal scoring EPL midfielders for 50p that might move on to better things) and the 2 youngsters Brekalo (only 19, just breaking through at Wolfsburg) and Koch who seems to have a lot going for him with goals from defence but I can't see any interest from bigger teams or any evidence of involvement with the German national youth teams and Freiburg aren't amazing.

    All in all a tempting day and quite hard to predict! Well apart from Paulinho.

  • @Agatello cracking stuff, always enjoy reading your stuff, it’ll be interesting to see how your price prediction pans out! Good luck 👍

  • What do you think he'll settle at? I can't see him lower than £1.20 but I can't see him breaking £2 and I'd be surprised if he breaks £1.80.

  • @Agatello

    I think the fact he’s defensive midfield or a box to box keeps the price down and age but he’s got the Brazil hype going for him. If Mousa Dembele is £1-20 you maynot be far out with £1-40 Lucas is Brazilian and on 1-85 but can play and does play on wing or further forward than Paulinho I think Fred’s 1-60,ish but linked to Man City so dearer has peen linked... I’ll be interested to see how far out your £1-40 is tomorrow but I think it’s a good call but you can never allow for what people’s unpredictable behaviour will be. It’s on lunch hour so got to be careful not to over bid due to being prime time..

  • @Agatello

    Vidal is £1.50 same age box to box top team and at World Cup and established on the platform..

    I also note another big player simuler missing when I went to compare. Sami Khadira

  • @Chicken-Badge Khedira is in the squad at £1.03 and Vidal is not going to the WC (Chile didn't qualify)

    Agree it's difficult to see where he'll settle, I think his baseline and the fact that he scored a hattrick for Brazil during qualifying could see him pass Busquets at £1.80 who simply doesn't have same the goal threat. Paulinho has 8 goals this season in La Liga, the next Barce midfielder has 2, I don't think £2 is out the question.

  • @AT10

    Cheers you was right was up at 2am and not been looking right. Had some stress yesterday due to the bad weather. But thanks for putting me right.

  • I think £2 is a little high to be honest was only a month back the the established Christian Eriksen was at £2 and he’s always top of performance buzz and gets some media passes shoots assist scores leads his nation at World Cup and in EPL I think many would home nearer to the £1 after some bad IPO for a week or two but we will soon see

  • @Chicken-Badge I agree my instinct says he’s worth 1.45 but on twitter so much hype and traders waiting for him he will hit 2 I reckon. Look at Brooke’s bit of twitter hype new traders pushed him to a pound. Even the big traders with big portfolios have mentioned him buying 500 each I reckon 2 is feasible but worth 1.50 max imo

  • @Chicken-Badge I think Eriksen was under priced for a long time though!

  • @NewUser76539 Agree, the Twitter hype is what makes me think £2 but agree with everyone on here that true value is £1.50ish.

  • @Agatello - With the hype and the familiarity i can see him hitting £1.60+, then pull back to settle around the £1.30-£1.40 mark.

    Staying clear myself as been stung by this kind of IPO in the last month or so...

  • Reading the above I'm very inclined to agree with you all, general consensus appears to be that he's defo worth buying but will peak way above what we all seem to think he's worth (which is slightly illogical but we all know the index doesn't make sense at times :-) ).

  • My nightmare sanario is that in many respects he’s like for like with Jorginho without the EPL links.. in Brazil squad. Midfield hype around the IPO even sounds the same... this IPO peaked at 1-90 dropped 20% then back to 1-86 no profit unless you got in bloody fast! Napoli v Barca too.... I think it be better for all if everyone gets some between £1 and £1-50 and he goes up after people get home from work and rises slow but consistently that would suit me better & hype would be better for all, after the first 6 hours of issue if the twitter guys do what they do best in a possitive way after the initial buy-in. If managed right everyone can prosper out this and it be a good advert for FI on there feeds after a couple of weeks of poor IPOs. But yes everyone seems to predict between £1 and £2 so between £1 and £1-50 depending how quick you jump on initially for first 10 mins of issue would be nice I feel and be my ideal.

  • Jorginho, although Brazilian born opted to play for Italy mate, so he has to find a tree to urinate against instead as there's no WC for him!

  • @Agatello

    How crazy is that? I never realised I am pants with international footy only interested in spurs watch a few England games if our lads are playing. I guess one has World Cup other has EPL links then. I expected with the Brazilian name to be in Brazil’s squad This is why you guys are experts on this and I’m only doing it has a hobby I hope I take on board and learn from the help cheers! Been here since October and help in these forums and your IPO reviews promote the site for benifit of everyone thanks for putting me right, been up half night with these winds battering my town

  • No worries mate, the one thing about FI is that I don't think someone really needs to know much about football to make money, in fact it's probably an advantage as they're removed from team loyalties and will not attracted to players who are easy on the eye but crap money makers.

    If you can read rumours, spot trends and analyse stats then the world is your oyster.

    As for you my friend, us Spurs fans are obviously more intelligent when it comes to the beautiful game full stop ;-)

  • Okay looks like HQ are cooking on gas again! Everyone ready for the big P, a twitter poll is suggesting a huge rise!!

  • Don't really know what all the hype is about with Paulinho. He's not that good. he will never win PB with Barca or MB. You are basically buying him as he will probably feature in the Brazil WC squad which again will not grant him PB most likely.

  • @Agatello - Well that was quite a spike!! Got in at £1.32 - little bit higher than i would have hoped... but he seems to have stabilized in the high £1.70's!

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