When things get really hard on football index who will be staying?



  • We have seen what happens with some volatility in the market, people go bat shit crazy. So I was just wondering how many of you guys will stay on the index when you have to be a little lucky to make some money on here not us lot who are just buying players and all making money as it's in its infancy?



  • I didn't panic during the recent downfall, but understood why others did. I joined last year and panicked when there was a near 3 month bear market from October to December, which was abated temporary by a deposit bonus, and then the announcement that there would be a share split later in the New Year brought a sustained boom until February. I took out all my money bar £2k before December and played with that. When the market recovered I returned my full investment.

    I've learnt that the market goes up/down and in circles similar to the real stock market which I used to trade on, so there's no need to panic. Those that are new here and stay, will learn that to be true. As long as it is possible to make money, I'll stay.



  • If you have been here longer than 12 months it's pretty hard now! I think the secret is not to panic, the top end has been taking the hit for some time yet look at neymar/messi their pb is streets ahead of anyone.



  • @Tom7471 said in When things get really hard on football index who will be staying?:

    We have seen what happens with some volatility in the market, people go bat shit crazy. So I was just wondering how many of you guys will stay on the index when you have to be a little lucky to make some money on here not us lot who are just buying players and all making money as it's in its infancy?

    I think the word lucky sums it up...

    As soon as it becomes more about luck than football knowledge the crowds will leave. We have seen this with the watering down of mb odds.
    You can make more money elsewhere if its going to be risky.
    You can put your money in safer places if its going to be risky.
    For penny dividends it shouldn't be so risky, it should follow football research.



  • @Tom7471 If you had to be lucky to make money I’d be gone, I’ve no interest in playing fantasy football roulette.
    If making money was difficult but played true I’d love to stay but I would go. Reason being that when all avenues have been explored by FI, the market is at saturation point and no more stimulation was viable most of the weak players on here would go, because most people have come on to FI believing it’s free money, an investment, the market stagnates and the feet stamping begins. In the recent case it can be resolved by a dividend increase. The market has outgrown them so easy solution.
    However, when the market isn’t dwarfing the dividends there’ll be no easy solution. Weak hands, weak traders will leave and leave and it will be sustained. This will have a huge impact on my port value so if I felt we were heading towards a bear market with no real option for it being uplifted I’d be a fool not to go. My port will sink like the proverbial ship regardless of how well I was trading. If this did subsequently play out hopefully it’d be viable for me to buy back in after the carnage when and if the market stabilised.



  • The only reason to put up with the rubbish web sites, the poor decisions, late payouts etc etc is because of the good returns. As soon as skill is replaced by luck might as well go to bingo. FI have to be very careful with their decisions running up to the 29th. I've largely derisked apart from Pogba. Money going back in will depend which direction FI choose to go.



  • As we've seen some players will absolutely overreact and leave at the first sustained downturn. Recently it was a couple of weeks prior to the deposit bonus then one week after and people were IS their ports so those kind of players will be gone.

    If you look at the prices of the top 10 over the last 3 months only Pogba (-.90) Neymar (-.20) and Salah (-.45) have dropped. Even if you are showing red now over the 3 years with ups and downs and dividends along the way you'll hopefully make a better return than you would in any bank account just maybe not the huge returns some veteran traders are used to.

    Obviously you could win bigger with traditional gambling but the risks of losing it all are also bigger and for me the fun element of FI is still there, keeps matches you'd never usually be bothered about interesting and encourages watching obscure players to see if they could be the next big thing in the making but there are people who as soon as they see the red, even if it's just a reduction in profits will want to get out. I don't blame them but think they should just be honest.



  • It's interesting because I love fi but there will be times where big chunks of the market will be overvalued. As I guy who can obsess over value of everything in life. The only players I could really find value in a couple of months ago with my knowledge were Kevin de bruyne £3.70 and Mahrez £1.20 and they did rise but now at £4.70 and £2.40 with no dividend increase in they don't have much value at there age to me. When this happens and when there is no bonuses and dividend increases I don't think I would be able to make any money and wouldn't enjoy the ups and downs of it that I would have to stop.



  • @Tom7471 Yes. Only a compulsive gambler would continue to bet where there’s no value so it’s only logical that when and if there is none and there’s no sign of a dividend increase people will and should call it a day.



  • @Timothee-Atouba Doesn't the fact that football is ever-changing not mean there is always value somewhere? New players coming through, transfers, managerial changes meaning tactical changes and PB performers changing etc.
    I think it will become ever harder to sit and hold players when the market isn't growing anymore but as a trading platform there will always be value in finding the right players.



  • I'll certainly stick around... I do believe the first few years are about jumping on the crest of the wave and riding it out whilst enjoying some profits on the back of the index's growing popularity alone... Right now everyone wants a bit, they all think its easy money and they want to jump on board the train and have a slice of the cake... (i've ran out of puns for now)...

    I do think further afield once prices 'settle' that it will be more difficult to make money and folk will need to trade 'better'... ie based on football performances and getting in at the right time (ie ahead of transfers/news stories) and more importantly selling at the right time ie when prices are highest?

    People keep going on about the top ten falling right now.. This is simply down to them being highly inflated initially... then after sub-standard performances (especially the likes of Pogba/Salah/Kane etc and with injuries to Neymar/Messi/Mbappe) those new up coming stars (Sensi, Haaland, Malen etc) are simply closing the gap down to performance!!! This is how the market 'should' be!!!



  • @janner73 True. I was coming more from an individuals standpoint. One mans value is another mans rubbish and all that!



  • There will be a point when most people lose. At that point it doesn't make sense to keep huge sums of money in the index. I wouldn't keep 10k in bet 365 so same applies here.

    I suspect I would stay on the index in some form for fun but would very much be gambling not investing.

    At the moment people are generally investing in the index itself growing. They seem to be pushing growth and probably will for some time so on that basis it's a solid investment. FI has shown that they will do stuff to prevent a serious drop... For now.



  • @janner73 said in When things get really hard on football index who will be staying?:

    Doesn't the fact that football is ever-changing not mean there is always value somewhere?

    Too true the problem is when sufficient ppl aren't willing to look for it, as that involves research & some work, which is why I have little sympathy for those who simply throw their money at the top end players with no reasoning other than on the basis that they will rise like they always have & then that turns out not to be the case.

    FI have a really good product, in fact with careful nurturing it could be a worldwide phenomenon in a few short years & I can see growth potential for the foreseeable future if things go well. Even if it ends up being badly managed & mistakes are frequent I can see at least 5 years more growth being almost inevitable but as we have seen rules can change so it's incumbent on all of us to remain vigilant, only risk what you can afford to lose & if you don't like the risks to sell up or at least scale back to our individual comfort levels. No betting proposition is a licence to print money at least not forever.



  • Never phased. I trade like the Iceman flies

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    But seriously, like others, I'm gradually withdrawing until I'm trading with pure profit. Then I can take it on the chin if it all went tits up.

    Currently able to withdraw money while still having a growing port.



  • Because of all the reasons mentioned especially those mentioned by @Timothee-Atouba i feel its always best to try and buy into a player you think could return his entire value through dividends over the course of 3 years at least that way if prices tumble you always have a chance at getting out with profit. Unfortunately that means paying premium prices the majority of the time.

    I really hope im still here in three years time but we just never know what fate could have in store for us. As long as this doesn’t get in the way of family life then ill stick around



  • @Black-wolf Yes. People have turned to comparative pricing. He’s £2.20, he’s cheap in comparison at £1.85.
    It’s rubbish. It’s the most ridiculous way of assessing value. But that’s what it’s come to and I’m not totally innocent, I even think the more shrewd tipsters are often using the technique.
    I think there’re very well known, established players over £2 with no real chance of returning anywhere near their price in what’s left of their careers and like you say you’re sitting on fresh air if you’re not likely to get back at least the majority of the price.



  • @Timothee-Atouba yep and when you really look through the index there are only a small number of players that i can say can accomplish this everything else is unproven and a big gamble until they do make dividends. The cap app game only works while the market as a whole is growing unless you have really done your research on a players likely potential but even then your money is in the hands of other traders and we dont know if a players price is held up by one person or a thousand so its impossible to know when and how that players price will move



  • @Black-wolf said in When things get really hard on football index who will be staying?:

    Because of all the reasons mentioned especially those mentioned by @Timothee-Atouba i feel its always best to try and buy into a player you think could return his entire value through dividends over the course of 3 years at least that way if prices tumble you always have a chance at getting out with profit. Unfortunately that means paying premium prices the majority of the time.

    I really hope im still here in three years time but we just never know what fate could have in store for us. As long as this doesn’t get in the way of family life then ill stick around

    Out of interest who do you think will return their value in three years ? There aren't many contenders, the highest yield players all have question marks over their long term viability.

    A lot of it is based on projected dividend upgrades.

    The younger players have a chance to do it over their career which is probably what the price should relate to. But over three?



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in When things get really hard on football index who will be staying?:

    @Black-wolf Yes. People have turned to comparative pricing. He’s £2.20, he’s cheap in comparison at £1.85.
    It’s rubbish. It’s the most ridiculous way of assessing value. But that’s what it’s come to and I’m not totally innocent, I even think the more shrewd tipsters are often using the technique.
    I think there’re very well known, established players over £2 with no real chance of returning anywhere near their price in what’s left of their careers and like you say you’re sitting on fresh air if you’re not likely to get back at least the majority of the price.

    Yeah.

    I asked on one of the podcasts, what they would value a player projected to win 2 dividends a year who is aged 24, 28, 32 with no obvious change of circumstances.

    They didn't have a clue whatsoever. And should tried to find a similar player on the index and value them on that. There is virtually no proper valuations on FI it's all just relative pricing. It's all anyone uses.

    If the index was starting today and you were given the facts about previous stats on the player, dividend yields and so on would be interesting to see what people would value the players at. In isolation how much would someone value an Andy Robertson future at if the index started from scratch? 20p? At most.


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