Thoughts on likes of Alexander Arnold / Kimmich (and defenders in general)
i was wondering how many players from each category were over like £2
forwards - 38 (80 in top 200)
midfielders - 32 (105 in top 200)
defenders - 5 (15 in top 200)
alexander arnold - £3.99
kimmich - £3.55
van dijk - £2.64
reece james - £2.19
de ligt - £2.02
so in view of the PB (because defender is 5p same as a forward and midfielder) it got me thinking about them more:
A - do the likes of alexander arnold and kimmich mop up PB all the time
B - if not are they over valued
C - or are there potential cheap defenders around that the market has not woken up to yet (from a ROI from PB etc)
johnboywalker last edited by
Defenders are generally under priced in comparison to the rest of the index.
Recent PB changes have resulted in full backs consistently out scoring centre halfs.
TAA takes free kicks, corners and scores goals. He plays in a world class team that regularly use the full backs as the basis of any attack. In PB terms, TAA is the Neymar of the defensive world.
Kimmich is a similar story for Bayern. My only concern is that he may continue to play regularly in midfield, and may be reclassified as a midfielder on the index. This would likely negatively effect his price.
TAA and Kimmich tend to dominate the defender PB, even without scoring. They only seem to be outscored if a fellow defender manages to score a game winning goal.
@MM Traders believe that TAA and Kimmich dominate defender PB - and whilst they are no doubt the top 2 defenders make what you will of the following:
Top Earning PB Defenders 2019/2020
- TAA 10p
2 = Kimmich 8p
2 = Souquet 8p
Top Earning PB Midfielders 2019/2020
- De Bruyne 19p
- Parejo 17p
- Alberto 12p
4 = Pjanic 10p
4= Jordan 10p
- TAA 10p
I personally think Trent could be one of the safest holds on the index, if he was a striker his price would be double- he's had 8 positional wins and he's 21. He's only going to get better and he will be a leading player for England at the Euro's IMO. He will be a guaranteed div returner for Liverpool and England over the next 3 years. Makes people like Tammy and Felix overpriced IMO
@janner73 nice stats, assuming they are not readily available
@ChazFI123 at moment i think i am borderline on whether trent is worth buying into, or whether he has peaked for now
although obviously dont want to miss the train before it leaves the station in the run up to the euros etc
not balls deep in here at moment from cash investment stand point
@MM I got very lucky, I invested in Trent the morning of the div's announcement so he has gone up 27p for me currently. I personally would be amazed if in 3 years time Trent holders would not be in a good position
@MM I keep track myself but there are various data sites that people do use:
footyindexscout is a free site and contains all data although you need to be mindful that dividends earned pre share-split have not been adjusted.
indexgain offer both a free and more extensive paid service.
@ChazFI123 think i read on one of the threads, that neymar was £1 in 2016, so with the share splits thats over 8,000% return in 3 years to this current day
i dont expect in another 3 years time those types of exponential growth to have happened again, because that period was FI from more or less a start up to the giant it is now, although others might have different opinions than me, maybe in 3 years time it could be a global monster
Antierror last edited by
@janner73 don't remember ever seeing the name Souquet. Was this on a single match day? Well 8p means he must have won PB more than once anyways
@Antierror Montpellier full back both were game winning goals in 1-0 wins 27th Aug and 25th Sep
While not the only factor PB wins seem to be more random for defenders due to the high points awarded for a goal/game winning goal.
To put that in context given defenders don't score many goals a defender that scores the game winning goal in any given week, regardless of his 'base pb' is highly likely to be top or thier abouts. A defender like VVD with a great base PB is still unlikely to win PB without a goal.
Kimmich and Trent are the exception, hence thier prices.
Stevo last edited by
@Antierror his goalscoring exploits prior to this seaosn certainly leave something to be desired. I was tempted but then he could go without scoring ever again. Very cheap though so not much risk involved.
Also to answer c) Jordi Alba
Should be back from injury this weekend.
Londoner last edited by
I don't really buy defenders but have bought Kimmich and TAA in the past to balance my port. I only have VVD in my port now. He had tanked since the start of the season and the Euros haven't made any difference. I used to have 300 shares but derisked to 100. It will be very interesting to see how he fairs on the announcement of the Policy Review.
MickTurbo last edited by
@Londoner I'm really toying with having a few dabbles on CB's but the thing that's stopping me is they're calling it a dividend policy review when what CB's really need is a matrix change.
Somebody said penny IPD's for cb's for clean sheets which is ok but for me that would only benefit ppl like bonucci, jerome boateng and thiago silva.
If I thought matrix tweaks were coming I'd really be looking at VVD tah and maybe saliba
@Londoner tanked haha, hel at that up for breakfast as the season hits the later
a few defenders starting to get some love in the last few days
on the basis that alexander arnold is not getting in the england side at the moment, ok it could change between now and the euros
but is his team mate robertson being massively over looked, he has started to move the last 24 hours but still only 40% of alexander arnold
@MM Robertson just cant compete with TAA for PB. TAA takes corners and is on a lot of set pieces meaning he will get a higher PB score than Robertson the majority of the time. It's one of those FI situations where they're both great in reality but one will nearly always score better than the other for PB.
@janner73 you reckon will TAA outscore robertson in a ratio of 2.5 to 1 in PB? what you think the right ratio is