The Cycle



  • So ive been on FI since Febuary and this is the first time ive really lost money daily for a substantial period of time. most of my port is made up of mid term holds and i was going to work out an exit plan pre Euro 2020. however i'm probably around £600-£700 (5%) down on when i peaked. its clear to see some of the more expensive players rising and i understand people are moving their investments to these players from less expensive players. i'm interested to hear from some of the more experienced members on here who have experienced this before? i'm reluctant to sell up so i can swallow a bit of a loss, and i'm certainly not interested in short term flipping. but do you guys think this is a genuine cycle? so when the top players have been exhausted it will move back to those £1-£3? even some of my PB players around this figure are heavily down.
    im just trying to gauge whether its stupid to accept a further £500 loss or hold tight with the confidence that it will come back around. are we seeing a natural cycle or is this something different



  • @G27 Be interested to know which players you have that are falling? Most of the PB players in the £1-£3 range seem to be either flat or getting some rises?
    To answer your question the money will almost certainly filter back down at some point - the top end always stretches the market first and once they have reached what the market deems a fair value the rest of the market will start to get pulled up assuming they are players that have some value - those with no obvious path to dividends will get left behind.



  • @G27 i dont believe it will go straight vack to flipping although there will slways be some kind of flipping amongst the short term traders. think the elite PB players will continue to rise for a little while yet with peole jumping on any other player that wins PB on any given day( this maybe where the flipping happens) once the top players have put a big gap between them and the next tier of PB the money will start going here( maybe from reinvested dividends so slower growth) then the rest of the market will start looking cheap and everyone starts looking for PB potential/youngsters. But inbetween we will get the transfer spec/media holds near and during the transfer windows. Im not sure that IPD’s will ever be as controlling as they recently where because we now have the promise of annual dividend reveiws but they will always be an active form of trading amongst the lower priced players



  • @G27 I also joined in february so am no more experienced than you I suppose but I think that at present the index is making perfect sense and that yes this is a cycle.

    Elite PB players are the order of the day and so they should be. If you hold TAA, kimmich, kroos, ruiz, pjanic, depay, messi, neymar, ronaldo, sterling then you're certainly gonna win on some gold days.

    These players are likely to remain fashionable for a little bit yet and the market will decide what they are worth. Next, itll be the likes of Digne, halstenberg, tierney, aouar, brozovic, skov griezmann, bernardeschi and others in the next tier.

    Then it's probably gonna be PB youth like Greenwood, gomes, Brewster, saka, then none PB youth like almada, verschaeren, malen, boadu, then probably IPD, and then probably VVD, Laporte, Maguire, De Ligt as ppl start second guessing the next review.

    I think each cycle will last longer than normal because the review has meant that every player has a big rise in them which cant happen over night because of the WOM involved



  • this is all great comments thank you. i guess i am partly to blame as i'm being fairly strict on not moving my money around too much. to answer your question @janner73, all of the players in my portfolio are listed below...in order of Value

    Sterling, Mbappe, CHO, Foden, Havertz, Abraham, Mount, D.James, Brewster, Fernandes, Saka, B.Silva, Oyarzabal, Chiesa, Tielemans, Malen, M.Dembele, R.Sessegnen, Nketiah, Gilmour, Olmo, Parrott, Willock, Van de Beek, Kulusevski, Boadu, Neres, Rashica, Szoboszlai, McNeil, M.Thuram, Brekalo, Haller, Barella, Kang-in, Isak, Duncan, Hagi, Gordon, Chong, Reine-Adelaide, Ikone, Gibbs-White, Weah, Mateta, Joveljic, Bernardeschi, Arp, Gouiri, Daka, Pinamonti, Cuisance, Neto, Lukebakio, Gaetano, T.Hernandez, Edwards, Kownacki, Yeboah, Bennetts, McEachran, D.Sterling, Dozzell, Barisic, Amian, Corchia

    so quite a mix of players there, some long term hold but enough PB players i thought with alot in the euros. 66 players in all i think i peaked at 56% profit, i'm currently down to 49%.



  • @G27 Looking at that list - just sit it out.

    Your portfolio will be fine for the long goal of the Euro's.



  • @G27 Makes more sense now.
    Its the youth player, especially in non PB leagues that are hurting you - the likes of Boadu, Olmo, Szoboszlai are friendless at the moment and will be for a while yet. The PL youth such as Brewster and Parrott have very little interest too.
    For the youth element it's my view that they'll continue to drop for a fair while yet - people want their money in players that can earn dividends now not in 2-3 years time. I would be looking at reducing the number of youth players and getting some of that money into proven dividend earners - it will hurt a little but long term you'll benefit from it.



  • Looks a good list. The reason for drops i would say is a bit youth heavy but the youth you have look good and will come round. Maybe you could trim a few and look for value in PB scorers who have not seen too much of a rise yet compared to others but other than that I think you will be fine.



  • @Ericali Why would you leave money in players like Boadu and Szoboszlai right now? They're losing a couple per cent a day and aren't at the bottom yet. You could take that money and put it into any one of numerous PB players that are flying by 5-10% in a day. Use the profits to buy back the youth at a lower price in a months time.
    Riding out falling prices when another area of the market is booming and its obvious it will continue to do seems pointless to me.



  • @G27 I am in a very similar position to yourself. I had positioned my portfolio with Europa league and champions league players who would play in Euro 2020. Many of these players from non PB leagues. I'm just about staying level at the moment but it's a tough watch when elite PB players are booming. I think there will still be a Euro 2020 boom but I think it will will be later and steeper than it would have been.



  • @NewUser731 said in The Cycle:

    @G27 I am in a very similar position to yourself. I had positioned my portfolio with Europa league and champions league players who would play in Euro 2020. Many of these players from non PB leagues. I'm just about staying level at the moment but it's a tough watch when elite PB players are booming. I think there will still be a Euro 2020 boom but I think it will will be later and steeper than it would have been.

    Ive been building mine on euro 2020 apart from one of two, I’m prepared to be right at the bottom off the pump for Euro2020 and get the max out of that. You can guarantee there will be huge hype for the euro’s especially when qualification is sorted.



  • @Tom77 Yeah i agree. Annoyingly I went for the lower end of the market expecting to take in the monster cap. appreciation. Unfortunately I didn't vouch for a div increase. Not to worry though, they will still represent a much greater value, just much nearer to the tournament. In the meantime, fingers crossed for my random Russians and Portuguese in the Europa league!!



  • @G27

    Sold up on a few of these so far

    T.Chong
    K.Amain
    A.Dozzell
    A. Gouri
    M.Gibbs White

    topped up on Bernardeschi and purchased J.Bernat, J.Kluivert, B.Mendy as could get a decent number of futures at those prices



  • @G27 said in The Cycle:

    Sterling, Mbappe, CHO, Foden, Havertz, Abraham, Mount, D.James, Brewster, Fernandes, Saka, B.Silva, Oyarzabal, Chiesa, Tielemans, Malen, M.Dembele, R.Sessegnen, Nketiah, Gilmour, Olmo, Parrott, Willock, Van de Beek, Kulusevski, Boadu, Neres, Rashica, Szoboszlai, McNeil, M.Thuram, Brekalo, Haller, Barella, Kang-in, Isak, Duncan, Hagi, Gordon, Reine-Adelaide, Ikone, Weah, Mateta, Joveljic, Bernardeschi, Arp, Daka, Pinamonti, Cuisance, Neto, Lukebakio, Gaetano, T.Hernandez, Edwards, Kownacki, Bennetts, McEachran, D.Sterling, Barisic, Kluivert, B.Mendy, Bernat,

    who should i be looking to top up on this list??



  • @G27
    Fernandes as long as it is Bruno Fernandes



  • @gball1975 said in The Cycle:

    @G27
    Fernandes as long as it is Bruno Fernandes

    No it's Elsie Fernandez of 12 Dingley Dell, Bognor Regis



  • @Ellisandro said in The Cycle:

    @gball1975 said in The Cycle:

    @G27
    Fernandes as long as it is Bruno Fernandes

    No it's Elsie Fernandez of 12 Dingley Dell, Bognor Regis

    It's a long time since I was down in Dingley Dell.


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