Is it right for age to have become irrelevant?



  • As the title says! Interested to hear thoughts.
    It seems it’s ok for players age to be deemed insignificant now but it seems strange to me.
    Check the top of the squad risers to see a 35yo at £1.15 that doesn’t often return dividends.
    Now, single game day or not that’s loopy and it’s a game of tossing the can before everybody else.



  • The market is correcting itself. Before there were a disproportionate number of under 20 year olds with a smattering appearances in the top 200. This was based in the fact they may get future dividends. But they were WAY more expensive then say 28-30 year olds who were delivering the type of dividends that people hope that the under 20 year old might deliver in the future. For sure age should be considered as it is a 3 year bet, but it had gone way too far the other way.



  • @Timothee-Atouba
    Definitely not irrelevant but new dividend structure has shortened the timeframe that returns can be achieved, thus making older PB performers like Modric, Bonnuci, Ramos etc much more valuable. Winning 16p (for a Gold Day Star man) at a time instead of 7p means far fewer wins in a much shorter timescale can repay their purchase price; the full impact of this change has still to be reflected fully in players prices - it was an FI masterstroke IMO.



  • @Timothee-Atouba Age is a factor for me - I expect a higher likely dividend yield the older the player is but I've said on another thread that the market has swung very quickly from cant touch any player over 30 to not caring about age and the reality should be somewhere in the middle.

    @NewUser159387 is 100% correct that these older players can return their price in dividends far quicker but there are definitely some older players that traders will be playing a game of chicken on getting out first on in the New Year - I would suggest any older non-European player or older player that has a high probability of retiring or moving out of a PB league next simmer will be part of that game of chicken. And dare I say the biggest name involved in that game will be Messi - as soon as Barca are out of the CL nobody will want to be holding him while the Euros are on.



  • Maybe its because an old player hasn't had a career ending injury and there is more confidence now.

    Zlatan looked like he was done in his mid 30’s and look at him now.



  • @janner73 it wont affect Messi that much over the summer he brought in constant divs this summer with no transfer spec and he has also recently stated he wants to see out the rest of his career at barca so not much worry of him leaving anytime soon



  • @Black-wolf I'll have to disagree - I think we'll see exactly the same in March/April next year as we did this with Messi. He'll start dropping and we'll all be having the age debate again. He didn't bring in that much this summer either - 14p during Media Madness I believe - but with the focus on the Euros I would personally expect less. I know there's the Copa America but as it's running exactly the same dates as the Euros I would expect it to lose out when it comes to MB.
    Happy to be proved wrong but I predict there are plenty of traders planning to exit at some point before the summer.



  • @janner73

    His price may well fluctuate but he's the GOAT for a reason & whilst ever he's fit & playing he WILL WIN dividends but I agree at some point that will end, most probably with retirement, hopefully out of choice not forced with injury but I think we maybe a couple of seasons away yet.



  • @NewUser159387 I agree I just know FI goes through cycles. He was a dividend machine 6 months ago but nobody would touch him due to age. We've had the div increase now he's god again and age doesn't matter.
    There's a truth somewhere between those 2 ridiculous extremes.



  • @janner73 i thought it would of been more than that as Messi and Neymar where my biggest earners over the summer followed by Pogba(only held half as many) surprised by that however ill still hold as he’s guaranteed to earn dividends whereas most players on the index can only be said to have a chance at earning them



  • The 3 year bet is a bit of a silly phrase. It's really a bet on their career.

    You need someone to buy them off you after the three years. If player X has three years left and player Y has six years left then player Y should cost twice as much all things equal.

    Market has never really done age depreciation properly. Instead of players gradually depreciating like they would do in an efficient market, they just drop off a cliff edge when people realise oh crap he is old better sell and everyone sheep's them.

    Re Messi. Messi is an August to December player. He is brilliant around now when people see the mega scores and get FOMO. You don't want to be holding him around the champs league business end or in the summer when there is no world Cup. Players like him can drop badly after champs league exits as people just don't know if he will be the same next year.



  • @Tom77 said in Is it right for age to have become irrelevant?:

    Maybe its because an old player hasn't had a career ending injury and there is more confidence now.

    Zlatan looked like he was done in his mid 30’s and look at him now.

    I thought Robben retiring and going to zero would have helped to align everything.

    Rationally you don't want to be holding someone like Robben for more than 10p or so really due to potential of retiring. So... a player a year younger than Robben should be say 25p because people know they will drop to 10p in a year. And so on...



  • @mike778 the reason the market doesnt get age depreciation right is largely because its a young and ever growing market. You are entirely right about how it should play out and it would if the overall market value was flat but the speed at which its growing really tends to complicate things a little



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in Is it right for age to have become irrelevant?:

    As the title says! Interested to hear thoughts.
    It seems it’s ok for players age to be deemed insignificant now but it seems strange to me.
    Check the top of the squad risers to see a 35yo at £1.15 that doesn’t often return dividends.
    Now, single game day or not that’s loopy and it’s a game of tossing the can before everybody else.

    The guy who you are referring to is actually 33 not 35 & "doesn't often return dividends" 🤫 he actually won yesterday & has won previously this season too.

    Hope this helps you with your conundrum. 👍

    Ericali



  • @Ericali said in Is it right for age to have become irrelevant?:

    @Timothee-Atouba said in Is it right for age to have become irrelevant?:

    As the title says! Interested to hear thoughts.
    It seems it’s ok for players age to be deemed insignificant now but it seems strange to me.
    Check the top of the squad risers to see a 35yo at £1.15 that doesn’t often return dividends.
    Now, single game day or not that’s loopy and it’s a game of tossing the can before everybody else.

    The guy who you are referring to is actually 33 not 35 & "doesn't often return dividends" 🤫 he actually won yesterday & has won previously this season too.

    Hope this helps you with your conundrum. 👍

    Ericali

    I assume he was referring to Cazorla to be fair. He has a single game day today.

    Only won dividends once this season but has got 200 or more four times, including two over 230 and is recently back in the Spain squad. Had a big rise I assume as he has a decent shot at dividends this evening.



  • @Ericali said in Is it right for age to have become irrelevant?:

    @Timothee-Atouba said in Is it right for age to have become irrelevant?:

    As the title says! Interested to hear thoughts.
    It seems it’s ok for players age to be deemed insignificant now but it seems strange to me.
    Check the top of the squad risers to see a 35yo at £1.15 that doesn’t often return dividends.
    Now, single game day or not that’s loopy and it’s a game of tossing the can before everybody else.

    The guy who you are referring to is actually 33 not 35 & "doesn't often return dividends" 🤫 he actually won yesterday & has won previously this season too.

    Hope this helps you with your conundrum. 👍

    Ericali

    Really? Playing on consecutive days is he Eric?
    On multiple ownership maybe?



  • @Joev Yes Cazorla! Thanks for answering Eric’s patronising tones for me.
    I appreciate he has a decent chance of 3p tonight but £1.15 at his age. No chance.


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