Time to change my strategy ?



  • So I’ve been on the index 7 months and have returned 50% of my initial investment....

    My way of working was find players who haven’t been picked up yet & profit from early research + good young talent in NoN PB leagues...

    I haven’t made profit for a few weeks now since the dividend announcement etc...some of my holds seem to have maybe hit their ceiling like Max Arnold?

    I’m wondering if I need to simplify my port and go the way of dividend, and the players winning good scores?

    Let me know your views...



  • @THE-PL4YM4KER said in Time to change my strategy ?:

    So I’ve been on the index 7 months and have returned 50% of my initial investment....

    My way of working was find players who haven’t been picked up yet & profit from early research + good young talent in NoN PB leagues...

    I haven’t made profit for a few weeks now since the dividend announcement etc...some of my holds seem to have maybe hit their ceiling like Max Arnold?

    I’m wondering if I need to simplify my port and go the way of dividend, and the players winning good scores?

    Let me know your views...

    Well done on your 50% return on initial investment. I think you've answered your question on what to do next moving forward.



  • Even if I only have £3.5k to invest will I make decent div return?



  • @THE-PL4YM4KER yes you can if you choose the correct players. You need a bit of luck also. I have only 10 players in my port in a £5k port. Recently 4 have returned me dividends but you need a few hundred shares in each player to win a decent amount of dividends. I suppose my strategy is higher risk than having more players spread out but i did that before so trying this now.



  • @THE-PL4YM4KER All relative in % terms. It will work out the same no matter how much your port is.

    Would recommend going for a diverse port and then doing nothing in effect. Let the divs roll in, won't pay too much in commission by constantly buying and selling and keep some of those youngsters who, I'm sure, will come back on trend again sooner or later.

    Would aim for 40% in div returners, 20% youngsters, 20% in prep for euros and then 20% in others (ipd, flips or one of other categories)



  • @THE-PL4YM4KER

    Bear in mind that the Index tends to work in cycles. Chasing high scoring PB players is all the rage at the moment, but it won’t always be that way.

    As their prices increase to what is already eye watering levels, other options (for example, young talents who are likely to move from non-PB to PB leagues) will become attractive again.

    I have 5 players in this category and another 5 in second tier leagues with a view to promotion. None of them are booming at the moment, but the reason for my original purchase is still valid, so I’m holding and being patient.

    If you sell up completely now and switch to big PB hitters, you may find you hit the tail end of that growth cycle and miss out on growth of your original holds.

    The trick is to stay one step ahead of the market and not follow trends once they’re already in full swing.

    Diversifying a bit is probably sensible advice though.



  • @ocs123 love this reply!! Yeah your right. Don’t keep being the last to the party, I’m wondering about a bit of a sell of some and prep for euros & hold all my young guns



  • @THE-PL4YM4KER I'm struggling at the moment with the current PB setup and the players that I hold. I thought I had what was a good set of performances last night, including promes, Depay, Seferovic, promes, ter Stegen and Gulacsi, Alcacer, Brandt, Dubois. Previously with the IPDs as they were j would have seen a decent rise in portfolio. As it was, I had a serious spike before once again my portfolio crashed back down to the same level I have been on for the last 2 weeks.

    The one i really don't understand is promes - why would he spike so much in the first instance (nobody would be eligible for the PB if they bought in the evevning) and then his drop (losing game winning goal and then his team going down go 9 men)? If someone could explain to me why this should happen it might help me explain people's PB mentality.



  • @NewUser731 Im struggling to understand this aswel, I was looking at Promes recently for the Euros, I believe he is undervalued regardless of last nights activity, but whether I believe hes of value seems irrelevant, masses are like you say buying and selling with no logical reason for doing so. players yoyo quicker than ive had chance to refresh my port, its mind boggling.



  • @NewUser731 In-play traders are now trading in-play PB scores. Even though they know they can't win the actual dividend, they are trading on the basis that others will buy a player that looks like winning PB as a potential good buy and a riser in the coming days. As soon as it becomes apparent they wont win PB they have no intention of holding long term.
    The profit margins for these traders are small and like trading IPDs in play previously there will be plenty of losers. Long-term tho a player's base price rises if they are continuously delivering good PB scores.



  • @janner73 wow!! That's a volatile market to be playing. Fair play to anyone that makes that a success!! I would imagine there are a fair few users struggling at the moment. When you think the footie is only up 50dd most days lately and there are currently 5 players in the top 100 going up 20p+ there must be so much money coming out of everyone else.



  • @NewUser731 Yep money is mainly just moving around at the moment rather than new money coming in. In this scenario there are as many losers as winners. If you look at the biggest risers yesterday - say Hakimi - that rise has mainly been funded by money coming out of other players.
    Of course you're only really lost money if you sell at that loss otherwise it's just an open losing position. I believe FI will have a big marketing push in January and we will see another period of huge overall market growth.



  • @NewUser731 said in Time to change my strategy ?:

    @janner73 wow!! That's a volatile market to be playing. Fair play to anyone that makes that a success!! I would imagine there are a fair few users struggling at the moment. When you think the footie is only up 50dd most days lately and there are currently 5 players in the top 100 going up 20p+ there must be so much money coming out of everyone else.

    Most of my port is red, I think it helps my mindset that I’m playing with total profit though.
    I’m also heavily in with different forwards which haven't seen much love lately, just waiting for a forward surge!.
    I’ve definatley been hurt by the TAA rise and people instant selling everything to jump on.



  • @Tom77 Yeah likewise. I'm finding it so hard to change my mentality from my previous strategy that was so successful and reliable.

    People seem to have completely lost interest in IPDs to frantically get money into the top IPD performers (which I suppose if you did it early is the best strategy right now).

    I really want FI to bring in a auto-rebuy option to keep the IPD market afloat. It won't cost FI any more and it will keep some form of value in the lower players. With even more money being moved into the top end, there just isn't enough liquidity to move players on.



  • @C-Money I'm going down a similar route, I'm going to have a port of about 10 players for a 3K deposit (3.7K port now), currently have 150 TAA, 100 Griezmann, 100 Gundagon, 75 Neymar and 100 Depay, plus a few others. I really do think there is a lot of growth still left in players since the announcement.



  • @janner73 50p seems such a monumental rise off one game doesn't it. That's serious money to move a player that much.
    What I find so difficult to deal with is how reactionary these things are. Users no longer seem to be pre-empting a good performance but just wait til someone plays well and takes the rise. For example I posted a while ago when Seferovic had 4 games in an IPD cycle (but also had 4 PB games in quick succesion), including internationals against Georgia and Gibraltar and he hasn't shifted at all.



  • Hakimi was massively underpriced though 2nd champs lge pb win and an ever improving Dortmund only one ways he going, just gutted sold Brandt as wasn't starting now flying again



  • @ChazFI123 yes mate!!! Great players there! I don't hold any of those players but depay and trent are great holds!! Neymar when fit is reliable. I think I'll keep my eye on gundogan. Lots of traders like him!!!



  • @NewUser731
    There's plenty of reactionary trading - you can make profit that way but you're never really maximising it when reacting as you're in a fastest finger first. Hakimi has always been a good PB player so him producing a performance like that last night was noty a huge surprise to me and he was definitely under-priced and probably still is now.
    There's also other reasons for those huge rises as well, traders may have been wanting to add Hakimi and saw a game where he scored twice as a good opportunity to buy with 4p IPDs, others may have used the good performance to top up their hold and get some IPDs.



  • @C-Money feels like I say it all the time, but do your research on Gundagon. I'm positive he will be a £2+ player before Christmas, especially when the other leagues are having their Christmas break. Griezmann is probably my most frustrating hold, sitting on about 50p CA but it's hard holding a player that performs unbelievably for his country but is struggling to fit in at club level, basically holding him for games every 2/3 months haha.


Log in to reply