Your chance odds of an IPO at the price you want



    1. This is based on the 900 shares per 1p rise model, or the 600-670 shares per 1p rise model, and traders buying 300. (Revised figures thanks to @Vespallian)

    Players: 900 shares to rise 1p

    A 10p rise would be split between 30 traders
    A 20p rise would be split between 60 traders
    A 30p rise would be split between 90 traders
    A 40p rise would be split between 120 traders
    A 50p rise would be split between 150 traders
    A 60p rise would be split between 180 traders
    A 70p rise would be split between 210 traders
    A 80p rise would be split between 240 traders
    A 90p rise would be split between 270 traders
    A 100p rise would be split between 300 traders
    A 110p rise would be split between 330 traders
    A 120p rise would be split between 360 traders
    A 130p rise would be split between 390 traders
    A 140p rise would be split between 420 traders
    A 150p rise would be split between 450 traders
    A 160p rise would be split between 480 traders

    Players: 600-670 to rise 1p. Call it 635.

    A 10p rise would be split between 21 traders
    A 20p rise would be split between 42 traders
    A 30p rise would be split between 63 traders
    A 40p rise would be split between 84 traders
    A 50p rise would be split between 105 traders
    A 60p rise would be split between 126 traders
    A 70p rise would be split between 147 traders
    A 80p rise would be split between 168 traders
    A 90p rise would be split between 189 traders
    A 100p rise would be split between 210 traders
    A 110p rise would be split between 231 traders
    A 120p rise would be split between 252 traders
    A 130p rise would be split between 273 traders
    A 140p rise would be split between 294 traders
    A 150p rise would be split between 315 traders
    A 160p rise would be split between 336 traders

    1. Let's take an average opening price of 100p on the 900 shares model.
      Depending on the player, you would roughly know what his end price might be.

    Now taking three examples:

    Player A: 100-130p. Bought by 90 traders.
    Player B:100-160p. Bought by 180 traders.
    Player C:100-190p. Bought by 270 traders.

    1. Let's assume your top buying in price is at 75%, (if you're lucky to know that in advance!). No-one is buying in at 100%, there's no profit. Purchases now look like this:

    Player A: 100-123p. Bought by 63 traders.
    Player B:100-145p. Bought by 126 traders.
    Player C:100-168p. Bought by 189 traders.

    1. There are "x" amount of traders.. At the current moment, it's about 430k?
      How many of these are hitting the refresh button?
      Let's be modest and say 10%? 43,000 traders.

    Player A is being chased by 43k/63. Odds of 682/1

    Player B is being chased by 43k/126. Odds of 340/1

    Player C is being chased by 43k/189. Odds of 228/1

    So on the theoretical figures above, your chances of buying in at a price you want are over 200/1. Unless you're @Ericali of course!

    If you're looking at players in the 30p IPO opening range, it only takes 90 max buys to double the price. So 68 max buys to rise 75%. 43k/68 = 630/1 chances of a buy-in.

    Play around with the figures for what % price you would be happy buying in at, and number of chasing traders you expect. For example Player C might be wanted by 100k traders. Odds of getting him then could be 400/1+

    So no more prams/toys/bots/bitching please!



  • @Ollie i learnt yesterday that youre not allowed to tell people to stop whinging about ipo's as they get very upset



  • Nice stats.👍



  • @Dalien-Smith All guesswork and irrelevant tho as not everyone buys 900 lol and also people are buying at the same time and the system just decides who pays what.

    If I want a player and I'm online when they are released... I get them within 1-2p every time... Without refreshing or searching at all.



  • @Vespasian32 plus using £1 as the avg opening price... Should be using 670 shares approx as the movement for a penny.

    The general point tho... A lot of people looking to buy and it doesn't take many traders to push the price up very quickly. So don't moan if u aren't in first



  • @Vespasian32 said in Your chance odds of an IPO at the price you want:

    If I want a player and I'm online when they are released... I get them within 1-2p every time... Without refreshing or searching at all.

    Care to cut me in on that action. There's this dude I'm after. Fati I think they call him. Quite handy. To get him at 1-2p off his IPO price? Kerching.



  • @Dalien-Smith not 1-2p with someone like fati but if you have a big enough account balance to buy 300 and click on the ticker the moment you see their name you can easily get on at a good price



  • @EThomas9 Got you. Off course. In all seriousness there hasn't been too many I'd been excited about but I guess I could have gone along for the ride at 1-2p shy of the IPO price.



  • @EThomas9 that’s the one advantage android users have over every other user, you can click on the players in the ticker to go straight to player profiles and buy.
    Unfortunately I’m iPhone user and those extra few clicks and seconds make a huge difference on ipo day 👍🏻



  • @Dalien-Smith the problem for me trying to get on fati is just having money in my balance. Best case scenario i could afford 175-200 with my current balance but in manually typing that number in you could be paying an extra 20-30p a share



  • @EThomas9 Can you not max bid?



  • @Dalien-Smith yeah but if you press buy max and can afford 175, by the time price movement has been accepted even a 1p increase per share means you now have insufficient funds so you get screwed



  • When 99% of the people on here realise they can’t get Camavinga or Fati at a reasonable price please regain some sense and start buying other players please! My portfolio is just slowly dripping away until that time.



  • @Vespasian32 said in Your chance odds of an IPO at the price you want:

    @Vespasian32 plus using £1 as the avg opening price... Should be using 670 shares approx as the movement for a penny.

    huh?



  • @Keegans-Bluff under £1 = 900 over £1 under 670-600. Since September



  • @Vespasian32 sorry, that's incorrect. bought a few players under £1 at 900 per 1p (and a few over £1 too actually)



  • @Keegans-Bluff I've tested hundreds of times at varying time of day. Along with Eric..

    I'd be interested to know the price of the plus £1 player. £1-2 is coming out between 670 and 720... The only players I had 1000 of above that were over £5 and was bang on 600 for them

    But someone on twitter bought 2400 eriksen yesterday in seconds and at each 600, exact, the price went up.



  • My chance of getting an IPO at the price I want? Below nothing since all these IPO’s are priced too high for my liking 😂



  • @Dalien-Smith said in Your chance odds of an IPO at the price you want:

    @Vespasian32 said in Your chance odds of an IPO at the price you want:

    If I want a player and I'm online when they are released... I get them within 1-2p every time... Without refreshing or searching at all.

    Care to cut me in on that action. There's this dude I'm after. Fati I think they call him. Quite handy. To get him at 1-2p off his IPO price? Kerching.

    Haha I told @Ericali the best way and he's now getting them at very good price. Can only say it so many times before losing my edge in that particular market!



  • @Vespasian32 if you cant/wont tell us, will ericali? Lol