Is there any point?



  • Been on the Index since the summer and the hardest decision for me has always been what sort of players to buy and how many shares. I have constantly changed my thinking on this but now I have settled in what I believe is right for me.

    I use to own between 30 -100 shares in premium players as that is all I could afford, now I don't own any as I believe I'm better off owning several hundreds or thousands in cheaper players as I genuinely believe there is so much value at the lower end despite the dividend increase.

    Two examples of my new strategy holds were Inigo Martinez and Radja Naingollan. Both have increased considerably especially Naingollan, and as I own a lot more shares in these players than I used to, CA and divs wins are very significant compared to before.

    I believe there is far less risk to owning these sorts of players as their price rarely fall 1 or 2p even if they have a nightmare. And on the flip side if they have 1 good game they rise considerably. Obviously they have to be decent picks and have potential to win dividends but I genuinely believe there are a lot of players on the index under 50p who can.

    So, is there any point owning 5 or 10 shares in premium players? % do nothing for me it's all about decent profit.

    Love to hear your thoughts.



  • @Pagey74 i think it all depends on preference, there isnt a right or wrong way of trading. If you have a strategy that works then keep to it. It gets thrown around loads but for me a diverse port is key. The higher end players will win you dividends more often than not, it's a fact that why there at the top. Your lower end players for example naingallon are good for a bit of CA, some IPD and that feeling you might win on a gold day but realistically someone will probably beat him. It's also about timing because you can easily get burnt on lower end players too. Some have bigger spreads than your suggesting especially if they start to drop a fair bit so there is a risk either way. There are a number of quality players under £1, some hidden gems but it's about timing and patience even at the lower end.



  • @Pagey74 Timing is everything with cheaper players.
    Take Nainggolan as an example - he had a big rise of the back of his last game and people are likely continuing to hold ahead of Cagliari's upcoming bronze game day. If he doesn't win PB on that day he'll likely lose a big chunk of the gain he made.
    We've seen such rises, and subsequent falls, on players who have upcoming bronze game days following a big performance. Di Maria is a perfect recent example, and Payet is following a similar path with upcoming bronze game days. You can make good money but like most of the market timing of entering and exiting the trade is critical.



  • @janner73 Naingollan for me was always to cheap as he's a class act who's played at the very highest level and is more than capable of performing like he did in last game for the majority of the season but I get where you're coming from.

    I'm more and more convinced though that holding more shares in cheaper players is the way forward for me, however like you said exiting is the key especially at the lower end as they may never rise again.

    I still don't understand traders holding so few shares in premium players though as the rewards are just not there, not for me anyway.



  • @Pagey74 The index needs a mix of strategies. Some people just like to "win" regularly and having those smaller number of premium players gives them those more regular wins.
    Time available, return wanted etc are all reasons that people adopt the strategies they do. After all, if everyone took your approach there would be no cheap players so the varied and diverse ways people trade provides opportunities all over the index.
    Ultimately it's about what works for you but there isn't a right and wrong.



  • @Pagey74 I have a mixed port and my main negative holds are in the lower sub 60p end of the market as I hold 00’s of them. Therefore I’m glad I have premium holds to off set their current loses which I hold in 50’s.

    It’s all about balance



  • @Shippers said in Is there any point?:

    The higher end players will win you dividends more often than not, it's a fact that why there at the top.

    Hmmmm...

    I bought 1000 Moutinho for £550 on the 20th of August. It's now the 20th of November and he has since won me £90 in divs.

    Instead of 1000 Moutinho, I could have bought 78 Neymar or 96 Messi.
    In the last 100 days, Neymar has won 48p, Messi has won 46p. Neymar would have returned £37.44 in divs, Messi would have returned £44.10 in divs. Moutinho, returned more dividends than both Messi and Neymar combined.

    So... yeah, the higher end will probs win you dividends more frequently but will they win you more actual dividends? Depends how lucky you are I guess....

    The thing is @Pagey74 it depends what kind of money you're playing with. Some of the guys on here have 6-7 figure portfolios. They aren't going to be buying 10,000 Moutinho, because they would instantly inflate the players price, and getting out would be hard... so to them 960 Messi makes more sense.



  • @Dan-The-Man don't think it's luck mate. Good shout on a cheaper, proven PB winner.

    Although, likewise Fabregas was touted as a PB definite this season and he's done squat.



  • @Lukeroro said in Is there any point?:

    @Dan-The-Man don't think it's luck mate. Good shout on a cheaper, proven PB winner.

    Although, likewise Fabregas was touted as a PB definite this season and he's done squat.

    I don't know bud, his PB win came on a gold day, could easily have been on a bronze day and the equation would have looked a little different.

    That said, Wolves have got some interesting games coming up, so fingers crossed he adds a bit more to the tally.



  • @Dan-The-Man No luck involved with Moutinho whatsoever. He's the definition of value - a proven PB winner from last season that suits the matrix relatively well and would expect him to win again next season.
    He's cheaper due to age but that's exactly the sort of value a good trader finds.
    But as you said the size of your portfolio can partly dictate what area of the market you operate in. If you can afford 1000 Messi's than clearly he will win PB a lot more often than Moutinho but there's a cost attached to that.



  • @Dan-The-Man mountinho is a great shout and noticied you've mentioned him before and as others have said will probably win again. I'd expect though unlike yourself people will become impatient wating for the next win whereas you'll more likely to win frequently holding "premium" players. Like I mentioned I don't think there is a wrong way of trading it just comes down to prefrence/strategy



  • @Pagey74 said in Is there any point?:

    @janner73 Naingollan for me was always to cheap as he's a class act who's played at the very highest level and is more than capable of performing like he did in last game for the majority of the season but I get where you're coming from.

    I'm more and more convinced though that holding more shares in cheaper players is the way forward for me, however like you said exiting is the key especially at the lower end as they may never rise again.

    I still don't understand traders holding so few shares in premium players though as the rewards are just not there, not for me anyway.

    @Pagey74 you have just hit the nail on the head my friend....

    You have had an awakening & seen the light. 👍

    I personally can afford to do both strategies but have settled a long time ago on your new way of thinking.

    For 80% on the platform with lower portfolios - buying lower value in bulk is definitely the way to go.



  • @Pagey74 of course you can buy more shares and therefore make greater returns on cheap players. As Dan said, probably coining one of my common retorts, people with big money don't want to play penny stocks cos it inflates the price too much... So there can be liquidity issues at the bottom. There is also risk that because they are cheap one investor can own a huge amount of a player. Naingolan for instance I know several holders with thousands.. So if you go to bed the night they decide to cash in you lose big time.

    I've played both strategies... More shares = more profit but more risk and more portfolio management needed. You can't be going on holiday for 2 weeks if you've bought a 30p player for transfer spec to utd...these things rise and fall on the hour and timing is essential.

    Buy 10 shares in kane or Messi etc and relax for a year and youl have made money.

    Buy 100 shares in Naingolan and double down in a week if he wins pb... But gota sleep with one eye open as you could lose 50% in an instant.

    Cheap players are also cheap for a reason... They don't win many divs... So you have to ride the cap ap and time your exit, rinse and repeat. It's hard to keep finding winners.

    All comes down to risk vs reward appetite but also time and ability to read the market.



  • @Vespasian32 said in Is there any point?:

    @Pagey74 of course you can buy more shares and therefore make greater returns on cheap players. As Dan said, probably coining one of my common retorts, people with big money don't want to play penny stocks cos it inflates the price too much... So there can be liquidity issues at the bottom. There is also risk that because they are cheap one investor can own a huge amount of a player. Naingolan for instance I know several holders with thousands.. So if you go to bed the night they decide to cash in you lose big time.

    I've played both strategies... More shares = more profit but more risk and more portfolio management needed. You can't be going on holiday for 2 weeks if you've bought a 30p player for transfer spec to utd...these things rise and fall on the hour and timing is essential.

    Buy 10 shares in kane or Messi etc and relax for a year and youl have made money.

    Buy 100 shares in Naingolan and double down in a week if he wins pb... But gota sleep with one eye open as you could lose 50% in an instant.

    Cheap players are also cheap for a reason... They don't win many divs... So you have to ride the cap ap and time your exit, rinse and repeat. It's hard to keep finding winners.

    All comes down to risk vs reward appetite but also time and ability to read the market.

    I think it depends what you want from your cheap player. There's a difference if you're buying in hope of a link to Man U or if they're a good PB player. If you're waiting on a link to Man U then you need that link and need to be on it to get your profit, as you say. If you're waiting for a good PB score then it's a totally different proposition in my view.

    I've been holding Moutinho for a while, I bought him before the season started and had him at a loss for a long time whilst Wolves struggled to win...but I knew he had good PB and would benefit from the changes to the PB matrix so just stuck with him. He's now well in profit and I have had the dividends from a gold day PB win.

    I've got a fair few like Moutinho. If you know what to look for in terms of PB then I think it's a good approach. The difference is you're not waiting for a link to Man U, you just need the player to hit a couple of PB scores that you know they're capable of. I don't load loads into each of these players, but they're making up an increasing % of my portfolio. I've been spreading round in quantities of 500/1000. It's really safe money, it doesn't take any real maintenance and it allows me to have a lot of players in the mix on a match day, which makes things more fun. Just one win for one player represents a good return.



  • @Yellow yeh, personally if I'm playing the long game I do it on players returning more divs, get some cash flow going. Its the Henderson argument again... Yeh if you buy thousands and he eventually wins then that payout is better than a year's worth of wins in a neymar. But you've had your money tied up for a year, whilst I've been reinvesting my frequent wins and making that money work.

    It is an option by all means... But not what I will ever buy cheap players for.



  • @Vespasian32 said in Is there any point?:

    @Yellow yeh, personally if I'm playing the long game I do it on players returning more divs, get some cash flow going. Its the Henderson argument again... Yeh if you buy thousands and he eventually wins then that payout is better than a year's worth of wins in a neymar. But you've had your money tied up for a year, whilst I've been reinvesting my frequent wins and making that money work.

    It is an option by all means... But not what I will ever buy cheap players for.

    Not sure it's quite the same as the Henderson argument as he's not a particularly good PB player. I can keep the cash flow going with this approach by spreading amongst a lot of players...one of my players will likely be amongst the big PB scorers on a gold day so will either see dividends or an opportunity to sell on a spike. PB dividends are back in fashion and people chuck money into players they see posting big scores. The players I'm picking up have 250PB+ scores in them.

    There's also an argument for just sitting on these lads if they have age and a big move on their side...I hadn't been on here long when I was using this approach for spotting players like Sensi for about 40p (pre share split, so 13p in today's money). As long as you have a plan for each player then it works well.



  • @Pagey74 said in Is there any point?:

    Been on the Index since the summer and the hardest decision for me has always been what sort of players to buy and how many shares. I have constantly changed my thinking on this but now I have settled in what I believe is right for me.

    I use to own between 30 -100 shares in premium players as that is all I could afford, now I don't own any as I believe I'm better off owning several hundreds or thousands in cheaper players as I genuinely believe there is so much value at the lower end despite the dividend increase.

    Two examples of my new strategy holds were Inigo Martinez and Radja Naingollan. Both have increased considerably especially Naingollan, and as I own a lot more shares in these players than I used to, CA and divs wins are very significant compared to before.

    I believe there is far less risk to owning these sorts of players as their price rarely fall 1 or 2p even if they have a nightmare. And on the flip side if they have 1 good game they rise considerably. Obviously they have to be decent picks and have potential to win dividends but I genuinely believe there are a lot of players on the index under 50p who can.

    So, is there any point owning 5 or 10 shares in premium players? % do nothing for me it's all about decent profit.

    Love to hear your thoughts.

    You either pick players and go long term - like at least a season.
    Or
    You trade the market and buy on news/curcumstances, this is what makes players go up and down.

    It doesn't matter if they are cheap or premium.



  • @Vespasian32 My point with Naingollan was I purchased him at 39p . He was never going to drop much lower than that over the next year as imo he's a class act and was always likely to put in a couple of performances like he did last time out over the course of the season.

    So I believe barring injury there was no risk in him at the price I got as he was always going to rise. I now hold several players who I believe are in the same bracket. Obviously there a no guarantees but I'm being rewarded more handsomely when CA rises than I was before and definitely less risk imo.



  • @Ericali Thank you young man. My regret is that I didn't do this earlier as I would have made some serious money. Serious money to me anyway.



  • Much better down the lower end of the market personally for me. I like to flirt around the 300 futures mark on every player. Just bare in mind holding more futures means longer to sell though!! So if you had tried to sell your Raj now they might take a fair while which means timing is key.


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