Chasing PB divs - improved odds ?



  • Sorry for starting yet another thread but when there have been no games for a couple of days, I go into "research mode" 🙈. This MIGHT prove useful though 🤔👍🏻

    So, without sounding patronising, we have three chances to win PB every Matchday - one payout for the three positions DEF, MID and FWD. Let's call the "star man" divs more of a bonus for now, keep it simple).
    Now, an important factor to highlight at this point is that the dividend payouts for each position are EXACTLY THE SAME: 2p on a Bronze Matchday, 4p on a Silver Matchday and 8p on a Gold Matchday. This is key.

    I've been looking at the constitution of the current top 200 and, although PB can still be a little bit of a lottery at times, it is widely accepted that the likely PB winners are going to come from the top 200.
    The findings are very interesting...

    The current top 200 consists of:
    73 players classed as a FORWARD
    107 players classed as a MIDFIELDER
    20 players classed as a DEFENDER/GOALKEEPER

    Now, lets ASSUME that players in the top 200 are the only ones who are likely to win PB (not the case at all but go with it). Just using the numbers alone (not player quality, team etc), if you only owned ONE PLAYER IN EACH POSITION, and every player played on the same day, your odds of winning PB would be:

    to win in the FWDS category...1.3%
    to win in the MIDS category...0.93%
    to win in the DEFS category...5%

    Yes, there are a lot of "ifs and buts" to take into consideration but what this tells me is NUMERICALLY you have a distinct advantage in owning defenders if you are solely chasing PB divs.
    And look at their prices...

    Top 10 defenders/gks:
    0_1574419261714_IMG_0694.PNG
    (Currently only two players over £3).

    Top 10 midfielders:
    0_1574419350716_IMG_0697.PNG
    (All 10 over £3)

    Top 10 forwards:
    0_1574419393660_IMG_0698.PNG
    (All 10 over £4)

    What my brief little investigation tells me is, because of the fact each position is rewarded with the same value of dividends, defenders are slightly undervalued overall.
    I would say massively undervalued if we were just looking at numerical data, but the fact they are less likely to win star man (predominantly midfielders looking at recent stats) and not attractive in terms of MB does mean they have slight disadvantages over other positions.

    For clarity's sake, I own 4 of the 5 top defenders but I wouldn't have started this slightly "pumpy" thread without putting my money where my mouth is first.

    I await the backlash 🙈😂...



  • @ScouseSte you may be right, all I can go on is gut instinct..

    My assumption will be if you now analyse the past year or so data, I would hazard a guess that defender category is the one with the highest % of winners coming from non top 200 players.

    My only reasoning is that the avg score for a defender win is lower... So when it comes to matchday a defender scoring will be a much bigger impact on their score compared to a random midfielder scoring. To beat kroos on a slow day it still takes more than a gwg from a standard midfielder outside the top 200.

    Gold day is where the big money is... And with so many games being played the chances of an anomoly are heightened... And if that anomoly does affect defenders more than the others... Then it would exponentially lower their value?

    I've not checked any data for this... Just my reaction.



  • @Vespasian32

    No that's a very reasonable assumption mate. As I say, it's based on numerical data alone and I just find it interesting.
    Nice one



  • @Vespasian32 @ScouseSte Vespasian is right - just looking at IndexGain, there have been 81 PB days so far this season, and defenders from outside the top 200 have won 65 times. That does still mean that the remaining 16 PB days have been won between the few defenders in the top 200, but those odds are considerably worse than you have suggested Scouse!

    Of those 16 PB days won by top 200 defenders, 4 of those have been TAA, 2 Kimmich, 2 Hakimi and 2 Chilwell, so the winners from the top 200 are easy to predict. That also suggests there are plenty of overpriced defenders in the top 200 (though it's still a small sample size of PB days).



  • @Vespasian32 @ScouseSte By comparison, 27 of 81 PB days have been won by midfielders outside the top 200, and 30 have been won by forwards. So a far higher proportion of PB wins for defenders are from outside the top 200. I think that means that although many defenders are underpriced, it doesn't necessarily mean PB wins are any easier to predict for defenders. To clarify that would require further research!



  • @ScouseSte

    I've long thought defenders are the best value for both IPD & PB, yes it can be a bit of a lottery but you can tilt the odds in your favour with a few common sense filters. G&A's can essentially determine def PB winners on any given day, plus goals are worth double IPD of 2p not 1p, so always look for those who can contribute G&A's, especially from possession based &/or dominant teams.

    Ramos takes pens for club & country so is an almost certain winner when he gets one, approx 1 in 6 games.
    TAA takes set pieces so likely to get an assist as well as plenty of crosses hence his PB monster scores.
    Hinteregger, Bonucci, VVD, Schar, Alonso, Mina, Digne, Laporte & Doherty are all players who can get a G&A so can threaten PB wins.
    Attacking FB/WB who can put in crosses have had a massive boost with the matrix changes but were already good bets before so deserve their price rise.

    Many defenders are still under £1 & loads under 50p so they are the most suitable for IPD flipping & an outside chance of PB win is a bonus. Whilst Mid & For PB winners are probably more predictable they are also far higher priced so for the smaller portfolio's or value hunters defenders are the most promising source of dividend winners IMHO.



  • Final observation - there hasn't been multiple wins from any midfielders outside the top 200 - they are all single wins. There have been 2 defenders outside the top 200 to win PB more than once this season - Souquet and Lenglet. There have been 3 forwards who have done the same - Bernardeschi, El Hadaddi and Deulofeu.



  • @Wotabeast that's good... I own 10 defenders... TAA, kimmich, hakimi are three of them.

    Kolorov, halstenberg, Mancini, Trippier, alaba, Alba and castagne.



  • We've had two newbies win pb yesterday: Star player: R Rochina, Top forward: S Mamba. This works out better for FI as less traders would hold these players. S Mamba's average PB is shocking: 12! Yes, he's only played 8 games in a pb league, but that's very low by any standards.

    0_1574469047438_upload-a1f5e8cc-e367-48de-afe1-8ffc3c6bdc87



  • @Wotabeast said in Chasing PB divs - improved odds ?:

    @Vespasian32 @ScouseSte By comparison, 27 of 81 PB days have been won by midfielders outside the top 200, and 30 have been won by forwards. So a far higher proportion of PB wins for defenders are from outside the top 200. I think that means that although many defenders are underpriced, it doesn't necessarily mean PB wins are any easier to predict for defenders. To clarify that would require further research!

    Interesting data 🤔

    So basically, the defenders category is the hardest to predict as it is the more widely spread over such a plethora of players.....

    In conclusion, you are probably best to stick to midfielders & forwards when chasing PB then.

    Nice work. 👍



  • @Ericali I think what he said was buy TAA



  • @Vespasian32 said in Chasing PB divs - improved odds ?:

    @Ericali I think what he said was buy TAA

    Maybe subliminally..... 😉



  • @Ericali I think he said the contrary...
    20 Top Def won PB 16 times, 0.8 on avg
    107 Top Mid won PB 54 times, 0.5 on avg

    It looks more of a midfielder lottery
    Interesting to know that among the Squad players only few won PB multiple times, among which only Lenglet and Bernardeschi are playing in top clubs with CL and Euros ahead



  • @Wotabeast said in Chasing PB divs - improved odds ?:

    @Vespasian32 @ScouseSte Vespasian is right - just looking at IndexGain, there have been 81 PB days so far this season, and defenders from outside the top 200 have won 65 times. That does still mean that the remaining 16 PB days have been won between the few defenders in the top 200, but those odds are considerably worse than you have suggested Scouse!

    Of those 16 PB days won by top 200 defenders, 4 of those have been TAA, 2 Kimmich, 2 Hakimi and 2 Chilwell, so the winners from the top 200 are easy to predict. That also suggests there are plenty of overpriced defenders in the top 200 (though it's still a small sample size of PB days).

    He was pretty clear @NewUser455434 👍



  • @Ericali Yes, exactly. 10 out of 20 Top Def won PB at least once. Percentages are considerably worse for midfielders



  • @NewUser455434 said in Chasing PB divs - improved odds ?:

    @Ericali Yes, exactly. 10 out of 20 Top Def won PB at least once. Percentages are considerably worse for midfielders

    Yes 65 out of 81 defender PBs have been won by defenders outside the top 200 - it's a lottery as you rightly said.

    Whereas nearly 50% of the top midfielder wins are from inside the top 200. 👍



  • @Ericali haha camon.
    50% but you have 107 midfielders, while you have only 20 defenders.

    At most there are underpriced defenders



  • @NewUser455434 They are facts.

    I agree with some of your reasoning, but the reality is the value of the defenders is outside the top 200 if your chasing PB. 65 from 81 have come from this category.

    If your looking for PB midfielders, you have a 50% chance if you look INSIDE the top 200.

    Who in their right mind would pay near £7 for a defender on them stats? 🙄



  • Some really interesting facts and points of view here chaps. Nice one 👍.

    It is clear to me now that just solely using numbers is NOT a good way to base any investment decision on 😁



  • @Ericali said in Chasing PB divs - improved odds ?:

    @NewUser455434 They are facts.

    I agree with some of your reasoning, but the reality is the value of the defenders is outside the top 200 if your chasing PB. 65 from 81 have come from this category.

    If your looking for PB midfielders, you have a 50% chance if you look INSIDE the top 200.

    Who in their right mind would pay near £7 for a defender on them stats? 🙄

    Just on that point Eric, that "65 from 81" number tells me that defenders are clearly under-represented in the top 200.

    When you've only got 20 representatives, compared to 107 midfielders, of course it's likely there will be more DEF wins coming from outside the top 200.

    If the numbers were a bit more equal, say 50 defenders and 80 midfielders, then you'd see quite a big difference i suspect


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