Tanking PB players



  • Hi All,

    Hasnt been a nice day for the port, looking at it for the first time today!
    Has there been a change in trend, where the PB players arent cool anymore, and theres a new trend now?

    Bit worried about some of my PB holds, and dont know whether just to cash out on them, and take the money and run because I cant quite see where to invest it? (Also, none of them have won any divs for me apart from IPDs which expire in a couple days...)

    For sure Im just burdened with some initial fear at the minute, but very tempted to react quickly before its "too late".

    My PB guys taking a hammering:
    Neymar
    TAA
    Pulgar
    Kimmich
    KDB
    Gundogan
    Rashica

    Getting very worried about TAA, Pulgar, Gundogan and Rashica especially. Bought them at their highest and now burning badly. Do you think those players will ever reach their highest prices again (or more)?

    Thanks.
    P. S Not trying to spread fear and doubt, I just have this myself only and some rationale around what to do would help me massively put things into perspective.



  • @Leclerc I wouldn’t worry mate. PB players are still the main source of divs rather than MB, and unless something drastic happens between now and Euros, will stay that way until next summer.
    Prices going down might be some people taking profit on those players, as some of them (TAA, Messi in particular) have risen by quite a lot over the past month/month and a half, some by over a quid.

    Also bear in mind it’s approaching Christmas, so people will be freeing up funds for the holidays.
    First time I’ve looked at my port in a few days and it’s been the same case as you. Main holds in my port being Neymar, Messi, Kroos, Brandt. All of which have gone down if it puts you at ease, so you’re not the only one



  • Simple answer, they will all rise again. Index on the whole suffering from a bit of a sell off today, nothing to worry about and seems normal for this time of year. Would be surprised if they are not all above your buy price by the end of Jan at the latest.



  • @Leclerc
    I think most of us are feeling it. I wouldn’t worry with those players. I’ve got 3 of them and I’m sure they’ll come good soon enough.



  • @Leclerc in similar position, I'm just going to hold through it.. I'm 99% sure come end of Jan the pb players will be at an all time post split high.

    The wise move might have been to sell them a few weeks ago and bought back during the dip. Hindsight is great... Timing the peak and trough never that easy in real time on long term holds. So pretty safe to ride the dip rather than panic now and regret it in a month or so.



  • @Leclerc

    Times like this I go back to basic logic. Dividends drive the platform. If you’ve put your money in the best place to gain dividends you’ll be fine in the long run.



  • @Mr-Fuzzman said in Tanking PB players:

    @Leclerc

    Times like this I go back to basic logic. Dividends drive the platform. If you’ve put your money in the best place to gain dividends you’ll be fine in the long run.

    Dividends SHOULD drive the market - but that doesn't mean they do.

    Logic doesn't always apply here.

    Some users may not play for PB. There are many different strategies & people shouldn't just put all their eggs in the same basket & expect it to go one way on the same cycle.



  • @Leclerc its a 3 year bet not a 3 week one, do you honestly believe Alexander-Arnold will be worth less than he is now in three years?! Do you honestly believe he will not earn you an enormous amount of divs in that three year period, if so IS and take the hit if not hold and let the money roll in!!!



  • @Ericali sorry, I was being a bit simplistic. I mean over the course of the 3 year bet money will generally be prominent for the picks that wins dividends. If you put your money in the best place to win dividends, you’ll be alright 👍🏻

    I agree with you that logic doesn’t ALWAYS apply, but money will always gravitate back towards those who are most likely to win dividends (whilst the yield is worthwhile for the masses)



  • Thanks everyone. Your replies are much appreciated. Hoping its just a December dip and by January theyre all moving in the right direction again.

    Out of interest, what is the general consensus around some of the big boys like TAA, KDB and Kimmich?

    I know Kimmich has had a million 2nd places and a possible position change incoming, and the other 2 havent won anything either, but are they due to tank more?

    Thinking whether its best to sell them while Im kind of down on them and buy back when theyve dipped more?

    Thanks.



  • @Mr-Fuzzman I wouldn't quite agree with this sentiment.

    I've made about £2.5k from dividends & £17.5k from capital appreciation.

    So plenty of ways to skin the cat.



  • Out of interest, this will be my first December on here, is it usual for the market to take a dip?

    Not worried about my PB holds, i take comfort in seeing Messi has nearly won more divs in the last 7 days, than his 7 day drop.. as crazy as that is it reminds me i have an edge over a lot of traders and that is why my dividends far exceeds my commission paid, i also know if everyone was like me there would be no FI!

    Most good PB holds have returned 5-7% in the last month and a half, this is a 3 year bet, i wouldn't be concerned unless any of those holds were looking increasingly unlikely to challenge for PB, you can't help what other traders do and most are impatient and will (perhaps rightly or wrongly) take the cap app. But they will also be the first ones back on next time they do win dividends. I still can't believe how generous the pay outs are so i wont be selling soon!

    P.S. - I'm a Massive NO for tiered PB, it would just simply be too easy.



  • @Leclerc In regards to TAA, KDB and Kimmich, all of them are solid holds playing for teams likely to progress late into the Champions league (Every knockout game is a Gold match day) But all of them except from Kimmich has had massive rises recently so there will be people taking profits. Kimmich hasn't risen the same due to 2nd places and potential positional change, but he does have the 2nd highest average PB score on the index, so you could argue he is one of the best holds regardless of position and has just been unlucky



  • I think it’s normal and prices for those players will continue to go down throughout Dec.
    PB won’t drive the market in Dec-Jan with transfer rumors giving higher yields (take Ibra, Ighalo, and other players priced below 1 pound or even below 30p). Plus there have been (and will continue to be) coach changes in some teams which will drive money on those players, see Tottenham.



  • @Ericali agreed. I guess that’s the beauty of being here at the moment.

    Given that capital appreciation and dividend wins are not mutually exclusive events, though, would it be fair to say that capital appreciation should be roughly proportionate to the chances of winning dividends (either now or in the future)? Therefore your CA was still driven by dividends, albeit indirectly?

    IMO, there are still high numbers of new users joining who will be fairly erratic in who they buy until they see how FI works (we’ve all been there. I remember buying Pickford!) but from what I’ve read, they usually position a large lump of their portfolios towards the top div earners once they fully understand the mechanics of FI. Then they’ll also have a favoured other method (Flip IPD, but injured players, find the next big thing) with another lump. This should make the div boys of a certain age a safe bet whilst this platform is still growing well.

    BTW, I’ve learned a lot from your posts since I joined FI, so I appreciate what you’re saying and I’m genuinely interested in your views on this.



  • Its cyber monday, it's no suprise ppl are seeing a bit of red. I am myself. I dont expect to gain a lot of cap app, failing a few cherry picked flips until next month



  • @Aquarius The footie is performing better than last December. So I suppose the answer is yes.
    Last January was just a non stop rocket display though.



  • @Mr-Fuzzman I'm not saying they don't indirectly/directly impact the capital appreciation with their ability to potentially win dividends in the future, but I'm not convinced that the average user who joins up starts his portfolio & buys the big stars for £6, £7 to win a few pence.

    I think they are looking for potential value elsewhere, & whether they have won PB/MB previously, you could argue - probably doesn't even matter to most.

    I have won 700% more through capital appreciation then through dividends, and I don't think I'm an anomoly is this case?

    Be happy to be proved wrong - any people out that find the opposite? 🤔

    Dividends should drive the index when we have a mature platform - but that could be years away.

    It's an interesting discussion anyway..... 👍



  • I am having the same issues with TAA and Kroos. Infact Kroos may go down more ahead of the Winter break but that should be a time to top up. TAA price potential is limitless given his age and nationality.

    I am not making the mistake of selling him again to see him up over 7 quid in January.



  • @DJ-110 Kroos, as long as he keeps producing the numbers, (which is an IF in itself) should bounce back after the German winter break for the Euro's - so I'll reserve judgement on him.

    TAA hasn't got the guarantee of being a starter for England & if he does force himself to No.1 choice (unlikely) he doesn't hold the same sway at international level with regard to corners & FKs that would justify him maintaining his Liverpool price over the summer.


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