Divs / PB analysis



  • @Gazz127 I think you might be right. Can't handle having wrong numbers up there tho!!



  • @TotalPunt

    So what is your conclusion to this data???



  • @Troy-Parrott said in Divs / PB analysis:

    @TotalPunt

    So what is your conclusion to this data???

    Good point - we are missing a summary @TotalPunt



  • Thanks for doing this. The last graph reaffirmed something which I had noticed when following the live PB scores this season:

    1. Specifically on Gold Match Days the top 20/25 is inundated with Midfielders and that the Star Player is won more often than not by a Midfielder.

    2. If we accept point 1 as being true, then it's occurred to me that I could embrace 1 of 2 strategies:

      1. Take the view that there's too much competition in the Midfielder PB market so focus on purchasing Defenders and Forwards and try to win the PB dividends for those positions. Of course, with this strategy, you are likely to lessen your chance of winning Star Player if you accept that more than 50% of the time that will be one by a Midfielder.
      2. Load up on Midfielders. If you set up your portfolio to predominately consist of PB Midfielders then you are naturally increasing your chance of winning both the dividends for that position and the Star Player, given the data above. Conversely, you have to accept that you reduce your chances of winning the PB dividends for the Defender and Forward positions.

    This is my conclusion from the above anyway. Possibly flawed thinking but it's just something that had occurred to me recently.



  • As a student currently doing lots of data handling, this is interesting :)

    The biggest surprise for me is probably that the French league has yielded the least amount of PB winners out of the PB leagues. This counteracts some of the common beliefs I have seen expressed on here and on Twitter before about the French league being a easier league and therefore being a PB friendly league. Although perhaps this is just specifically related to Neymar and his chances at PB divs in that league - if he had not have been injured for the best part of the season so far there would probably be more wins for Ligue 1.



  • @Troy-Parrott scrolling thru ScouseSte's div winner thread I thought it lacked many premier league winners. So initially just wanted to test that and actually the result tells the opposite, that Prem has had the most winners.

    Difficult to settle on any concrete conclusions, given this is pretty high level. It was more an information share for people who are newer to the platform, like myself, so you can see breakdown of dividend spread, instead of just through odd comments here and there.

    Biggest take away for me was simply weighing up MB more when comparing Prem players to non Prem, as that is premium that should be priced in. (Until Neymar finds his mojo).



  • @TotalPunt thanks for this, very interesting. If you have all the data intact how difficult would it be to replicate for just gold match days? I wonder if it would show a different or same pattern?

    Given gold match days are the most competitive it could potentially give the best insight.



  • @DW Easy enough to extract for Gold days only...will have a look tomorrow once day of wall-to-wall meetings is over 😩



  • appreciate you sharing thing, loving the positional info particularly forwards in spanish and italian leagues!



  • @TotalPunt great job very interesting 👌



  • @JaySaul I think the point with ligue 1, or at least how I view it, is that where in the past it was good to get on a player who was coming into the prem for the MB, now I'll be more interested in players transferring to ligue 1 for the PB.

    For example, if pog goes to real I'll leave him alone, but if he goes to PSG I'll be tempted because his PB scores will be higher, playing in a very dominant team against farmers.

    A player who has had good/fair pb in the EPL or la liga, can reasonably be expected to post very good PB in ligue 1. Therefore the players that I hold for a PB move like bruno fernandes, I'd previously of been hoping he went to utd, but now I'd much rather see him go to psg. Initially hed probably risevless, but longer term when hes consistently posting massive scores the big rises would come



  • @MickTurbo Yep, this is why I said the data is too high level, and need to get into player level data to really work out where the value lies. Ligue 1 doesn't present a poor hunting ground, you just need the right individual players.

    Striker win rate in La Liga and Serie A is interesting tho. I wonder if there is a style of play, with more possession up top, that works the PB matrix more. Prem is much faster and breaks at pace, with ball only up top for short periods. Sweeping statement?!



  • @JaySaul said in Divs / PB analysis:

    As a student currently doing lots of data handling, this is interesting :)

    The biggest surprise for me is probably that the French league has yielded the least amount of PB winners out of the PB leagues. This counteracts some of the common beliefs I have seen expressed on here and on Twitter before about the French league being a easier league and therefore being a PB friendly league. Although perhaps this is just specifically related to Neymar and his chances at PB divs in that league - if he had not have been injured for the best part of the season so far there would probably be more wins for Ligue 1.

    @JaySaul said in Divs / PB analysis:

    As a student currently doing lots of data handling, this is interesting :)

    The biggest surprise for me is probably that the French league has yielded the least amount of PB winners out of the PB leagues. This counteracts some of the common beliefs I have seen expressed on here and on Twitter before about the French league being a easier league and therefore being a PB friendly league. Although perhaps this is just specifically related to Neymar and his chances at PB divs in that league - if he had not have been injured for the best part of the season so far there would probably be more wins for Ligue 1.

    How many of the best players in the world are in the french league though.

    Neymar, mbappe, icardi, thats it, maybe depay.
    Compare to the other leagues there are far better players across the board.



  • @DW Below is for Gold only. Sample size is pretty small at just 32 days but a couple of interesting points, esp Deutschland......

    0_1575394557999_Screenshot_20191203-173020__01.jpg



  • @TotalPunt really appreciate you posting this. Find the Germany snapshot really interesting, 8 out of the 10 wins being defenders and not much else. Also EPL and Serie A look the stand outs for PB winners on gold days, at least so far this season.


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