Timing when to sell older players

  • Let me start by saying this isn't a thread for bashing older players, I hold a good few myself but my strategy towards them has changed recently, it'll be interesting to see how others view them.

    I held about 2500 Ronaldo shares up until a few weeks ago, I know he'll probably earn plenty of dividends between now and when he retires but the fear of the inevitable race to get out started to worry me more and more, I thought it could happen earlier than I anticipate and if it did it then market selling that many shares at a good price wouldn't be possible. Even a mid
    term injury could cause irreversible damage to someone that age as their time is more precious.

    For my biggest long term holds I now pick players aged 27 and under, they may not win as many dividends as some of the players I'll go on to mention but their value won't decrease any time soon due to age. The players aged 30+ I hold are now squad players usually limited to 300-600 shares so it's not too hard to sell.

    Out of the top 40 players Ronaldo 34, Messi 32, Parejo 30 and Kroos 30 next month are in the 30+ age bracket. Now these 4 will earn a lot of dividends between now and when they either retire or move to a none PB league. If you hold, rake in the dividends and manage to market sell older players before any significant age related drops you're laughing but not every trader will manage to do so, plenty will hold too long.

    Let's try and predict what will happen with the oldest two in Ronaldo and Messi if hypothetically you bought today for £6.36 and £3.06. Messi's dividend returns have been impressive but I think a significant drop is likely when barca's CL run ends as he won't win much media over the summer with the Euros being on. I think he'll earn around £1.20-1.50 in dividends before the season ends but I think he could lose around that in value when his price bottoms out at some point between when Barca's CL run ends to mid summer. That would effectively be around a break even trade unless you got out early, he'd likely start rising again closer to the 20/21 season starting but probably not close to his current value through being a year older.

    Ronaldo's form has been concerning this season but his age was my reason for selling, I would've sold up even if his dividend returns had been better. His significant drop probably happens when Portugal's Euros run is over, I think he'll earn around 60p-90p before then but like Messi I think the dividends get cancelled out by the drop. I could be wrong but they're my ballpark predictions for those two.

    Age and how it affects a players price especially older players is one of the most thought provoking aspects of football index for me, what are your thoughts on the subject and if you hold older players what's your strategy?

  • @NallyCat I've currently got Ronaldo is the sell que (-20p) from when the Euro draw was announced. Also I have half my Messi shares in the que prior to the winter break, the rest I'll keep until around March.

  • @NallyCat how much of a drop in ronaldo and Messi do you predict? I’m interested to hear your views on this as the big football index media push is about to commence and new traders will inevitably come on board. In two minds whether or not to sell ronaldo, but with Messi, I have quite some faith in him for this and next season.

  • December & January will see the big FI advertising drive, attracting plenty of new users - Who will they be likely to buy??

    Players they had heard of & the largest dividend earners is my guess, so plenty buying to come over the next couple of months IMHO.

  • Older players are an interesting topic as the index has never really figured depreciation out. It's a game of chicken really... People always think they will get out in time.

    I don't think it's worth the risk. Messi is a cracking summer buy as he is the kind of player that drops in march and people buy back approaching the season.

    When he is winning media and performance it looks great to hold and there is FOMO if you don't. He is a great hold until he isn't and by then it's probably too late.

  • Banned

    People don't though. New users look at the prices and buy cheap. This forum is full of threads of people talking about the shite they bought when they first started.
    Every time there is a new push for users, it is the cheaper players who rise first, and then it settles and moves onto premium players.

  • @Sol I've predicted they'll drop around what they return in dividends if you hold until their summer bottom out points, I think Messi' dividend returns could easily outweigh his drop but my focus of the thread wasn't really on the exact dividend return/drops as it's hard to predict, more the strategy of when people will be looking to sell.

    I hope the big advertising push will mean more money in FI of course, I've not really factored it too much in to my predictions.

  • I bought Ronaldo with an exit point in mind of Euro 2020, I still plan to hold till Euro 2020. I believe rightly or wrongly I will be able to market sell at above or around the price I bought him (£2.85) and he will have returned decent dividends in that period.

    So to answer your question when buying an older player I already had the exit point marked out.

  • @mike778 I agree, it hasn't really been figured out yet which makes it so fascinating, Ronaldo and Messi are sort of like the guinea pigs for the next batch of aging premium players in Parejo, Kroos, Hazard, KDB etc. I think if people get burned on Ronaldo and Messi it could make traders more cautious going forward on older players, time will tell.

  • Euros going be very interesting imagine that's lots people's exit point on various players, could be some huge sell queues going into knockout rounds, Ronaldo very dangerous for euros if hungry quality game v Portugal in hungry I'd imagine they'd not get out group

Log in to reply