Change of Stratergy



  • Morning all,
    So about 2 months ago, I sold up all my youngers (Greenwood, Brewster, CHO, Gomes) and decided to jump on some PB players with European club football & Euros in mind especially once the announcement was made. These players are regular PB players / winners. I have literally gone from 25% ROI to 13% in about a month.
    Since I purchased they have literally all crashed;
    Messi -12p
    Ronaldo -26p
    Kimmich -44p
    Gundogan -5p ~(not really a crash but still down)

    I know there is a winter break coming up in a few weeks but is this really the only reason for these guys dropping?
    Do you think they are still good solid holds with Euros in mind?

    Someone said to me once "no point in holding a player that keeps continually losing you money" … but I don't think they meant in this situation.

    Please could I have your thoughts and opinions.



  • @gball1975 Im guessing the timing was about 5 weeks ago rather than 2 months ago as Messi and Kimmich are comfortably up on the price they were first week of October.
    Putting that aside - it seems you bought at what was a peak following the surge in prices following the dividend increase.
    Messi will always go through these ups and downs as there's always people looking to time an exit. He'll have peaks again in the CL knock-out stages followed by sharper drops - it's exactly what happened last season. Through all of that he will win dividends and by the start of next season he'll probably be higher in price again.
    Ronaldo isn't having the best of seasons at Juve but he'll come alive in the knockout stages of the CL, and a draw against an English side would give him a nice price boost for Media. Euros draw hasn't helped him.
    Kimmich I think is just people getting frustrated with all the second places. As soon as he gets a win or 2 he'll fly again.
    EDIT: Bundesliga also has by far the longest winter break so will suffer from bigger drops than other leagues.



  • @janner73 Yeah 2 months sold the youngsters and jumped on some PB players literally upon the dividends announcement so yeah 5/6 weeks ago.

    So, no need to panic then in your opinion...just run with it?



  • @gball1975 all those players you mentioned are probably going to get back to at least the price you bought at within a month anyway, and more than likely will continue to rise in price after they do so. Messi for example is way down on his peak price, wait for him to win PB on a gold or silver day and everyone that sold him will probably buy back in. I'm with @janner73, stick it out and wait.

    If you're buying for PB reasons then their current price shouldn't even matter to you right now anyway. The only time a PB player's price should matter is when you are deciding to potentially sell within a week or two.



  • Of those I only hold Gundogan and I keep topping up as he is imo seriously underpriced.

    Messi will rise again I would hold but with an idea of a time on when you want out as I see him decreasing seriously quickly if Barcelona get knocked out of champions league.

    Ronaldo: Very similar to Messi but obviously a lot cheaper in comparison. He's is in perhaps the worst form in the last ten years of his career but I have no doubt he will come good again before the season is out. If I was you I would hold and sell on a peak.

    The only thing holding me (and maybe others) back from buying in on Kimmich is potential positional change and crash but he is looking serious value

    All good holds I would say. Nothing to worry about.



  • These are slightly risky...

    I think most are expecting a drop in Messi in the second half of the season as he won't be in the euros and next year he will be a year older. Champs league exit will probably see a drop and people are trying to beat it.

    If Kimmich gets through the winter break without a repositioning then he will get his price back again. If he is repositioned he could drop by up to a quid.

    Both of these players I sold relatively recently for these reasons. Ronnie is a bit different as he cheaper and will be in the euros. I would probably look to sell before the euros start but he should be a decent hold till then.



  • @gball1975 I would be sticking and waiting. They'll all be rising again in January.
    Even if you wanted out I would be waiting til January. There are a LOT of players going down in price at the moment - the main increases are in EPL players ahead of the winter break but to move to them now would be buying other part of the market at a peak.



  • You want that honey, you have to take a few bee stings!!!

    These are top players and they will dip and rise accordingly, like others have said you may have bought at a peak...it doesn’t take much for people to suddenly decide to sell these players. Younger guys you had less risk due to potential & talk. Where as these stated players they are established and their performance has to be perfect as some FI people panic and sell.



  • @THE-PL4YM4KER said in Change of Stratergy:

    You want that honey, you have to take a few bee stings!!!

    😂🤣...that goes with many things in life 😉



  • I joined in June and run a strategy that is totally PB focused. It was basically a one way street until Nov 6th and I was running at over 100% ROI at that point. The rest of Nov was mostly negative and I am currently 1% below the Nov 6th peak - the past 2 days have been quite good. I take a long term view so am not really bothered about what happens month to month but would certainly agree that PB style investing was not good over the past month.



  • Actually I might rephrase that. The most I was down from my peak was only 1.6% so hardly a disaster its just that over the same period the footie is up over a percent.



  • I've said it before & I'll say it again.

    Do the opposite of the market & wait for the market to change direction.

    Patience is key - but it never takes too long for the wind to change.


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