Does everyone expect PB players to rise again in Jan??



  • Post the big div announcement, it was normal for the PB players that had massive rises to have some correction.

    But my question is - were many of these overpriced in the first place, hence the drop, or is the drop mostly due to the market stagnation at this time of year and therefore they will see money going back into them after Xmas?

    Looking for opinions from traders that have been around this time last year (only been around for 6months)



  • @NewUser383114
    I would expect them to see a rise again in January but not necessarily all equally. Post Christmas and the Jan transfer window, focus will very much move to the latter stages of the European competitions and the Euros.
    PB players with involvement in those are likely to see the biggest rises.



  • I feel that value is in the PB players, i think new money in Jan wont follow this as people dont understand the market. When they understand PB and Divs the money will flow back to PB's



  • @NewUser383114 said in Does everyone expect PB players to rise again in Jan??:

    Post the big div announcement, it was normal for the PB players that had massive rises to have some correction.

    But my question is - were many of these overpriced in the first place, hence the drop, or is the drop mostly due to the market stagnation at this time of year and therefore they will see money going back into them after Xmas?

    Looking for opinions from traders that have been around this time last year (only been around for 6months)

    Firstly, we need to look at what will drive a January rise (if there is even going to be one!!).

    The market could rise for two reasons.

    New users joining the platform (advertising push, try January promotions etc) or retained users reinvesting (Christmas is over, winter break finished, possible deposit bonus or other enticement/announcement).

    Secondly, it is important to understand the mindset of new users compared to experienced users.

    Trying to read the market logically was one of my biggest mistakes early on. But this is not to say that you cannot predict market behaviour. It just doesnt behave 'as it should'. 🤷‍♂️

    Old users understand the value in PB players. We know why Messi is cheaper than Sancho, and Lacazette is half the price of Dybala. We understand the logic and reasoning behind the current prices.

    But new users do not, and will not fully understand this, until they have spend a significant time on the platform (and forum).

    The mindset of a new user, who will most likely come from a sports betting background will immediately look for instant value and quick results.

    Why pay £4 for player X, when 'in my opinion' £2 for player Y is better value for money.

    They will compare and contrast prices, and the market will rise as a result. For example,

    TAA is worth £6.35 as a right back, so surely Thomas Meunier at £85p is massively undervalued.

    If Hudson Odoi is worth £3.74, then Eden Hazard at £3.93 looks like a fair price.

    They will make loads of mistakes. We all did, it's part of the process, and I'm sure those that were around when I joined took advantage of my lack of understanding and also profited from my naivety. 🤠



  • @johnboywalker I get where you are coming from but there are new users all the time and since the split the gap between players like TAA and meunier has widened significantly.

    I'm confident wherever the money comes from the same market cycles will occur... The big events on the horizon for me are deposit bonus' (we don't know if or when there will be one), CL/Europa knockouts, Euros, Div increase in summer.

    Any kind of bonus favours top end first then trickles down.

    The euros and CL attract money because its extra pb eligible games, and assuming qf onwards is gold days again... Very lucrative prizes to be shared by relatively low competition. Mb will also be driven by events in these big games.

    Same for euros... The only pb matches being played for a significant amount of time.

    The div increase, like a bonus, will favour proven dividend earners first then trickle down.

    So for passive traders looking for solid growth and some cash returns the pb players are a good investment

    If you are more active and have a good read of the market you don't need to worry about these timescales... On any day there are a multitude of opportunities to dip in and out making small or big % gains (or losses)



  • @johnboywalker thanks for your reply.

    I fully understand what you mean and you speak a lot of truth.

    Personally, I try to not focus too much on what new users will do - as I think its hard to predict and often ends up being a lottery. To start comparing players can be tricky and often unreliable.

    I'm trying to prepare for what 'experienced' users will do and anticipate which players will go back up follow the xmas /winter break stagnation.

    That's why i'm thinking of putting some money into PB players , as surely they are a safe way to go? Esp ones that will be in european competitions and euros.

    What do you think, right approach? Where would you put spare £££ now?



  • @NewUser383114

    We all have contrasting positions and @Vespasian32 looks at things differently from me, but that is not to say one of us is right and the other is wrong. We are just choosing to make money from separate areas of the market.

    For the record, I am 100% behind investing in PB players, but only when the time is right, and that time was months ago.

    Prior to the most recent boom in PB players, I held them all. TAA, Depay, the usual suspects. When the PB players started to take off, I sold up. I walked away with a handsome profit and reinvested elsewhere. Mostly injured players and January transfer speculation.

    I try to be ahead of the trends/cycles, so that I can profit from them when they inevitably occur.

    I will no doubt return to PB players like Kroos, TAA and Depay, but only when I feel they have dipped enough in price and a new trend has taken the emphasis away from PB players.

    In terms of where to invest now. You are probably too late for January transfer speculation (Carrasco, Fraser etc).

    My advice is to plan for the Euros, but do so on a case by case, individual opportunity basis. For example, Belgium have arguably the easiest group at the Euros, so let's focus on them. Hazard is likely to have a big tournament.

    So, when Real Madrid are unexpectedly eliminated from the Champions League, player prices will freefall, they always do.

    Wait for the Hazard drop, then get involved and sit back for the next 4 months. I am confident that will be his lowest entry point prior to the Euros.

    The same could be said for Lukaku at Inter, De Bruyne/Sterling at City or even Kane/Alli at Spurs.

    Don't just buy Euro players all at the same time.

    Treat each purchase individually and pick the optimal time.

    The timing of the entry is crucial to maximising profits.



  • @johnboywalker makes alot of sense


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