Finding value for money?



  • I've been on the Index about 9 months and for the first time I am really struggling to know where to invest. I usually try to get just in front before a trend hits. Sometimes it has worked, some it hasn't. For example, when the market was dropping a couple of months ago, I sold up a number of my big holds and invested in young undervalued kids which meant I came out of the recession on top. For the Summer, I invested in players I thought were gonna get a move, which heavily backfired!

    But in every trend, there has always been FOMO and never had enough money to invest in all the players I wanted to. Right now, it feels different. I have money to spend but no idea where to put it. The PB heavy hitters feel saturated given there is still an element of lottery to who wins (outside of Messi). I could gamble on some January moves but that transfer window is notorious for lack of moves. Then there are the Euros but that is still over 6 months away. I'm just finding it difficult to know where to invest. Is anyone having the same issue? And if not, where are you looking to invest at the moment?

    I should also note: his isnt panicking because the market is flatlining. I understand a trough like this is very natural given it is December and the market is correcting after recent big money. But worried that I cant find avenues now or in the future (outside Euros) as to where the market is headed



  • @Dr-Jan-Itor If you're unsure then European players are almost a no brainer in this situation, and if they're playing in champions league then that is an added bonus for more PB opportunities. You mention struggling to find players to buy outside of the Euros, but over the next few months (march/april time especially) I reckon people will pile heavily into them if they haven't already

    Ideally they'd be one of the main players in the team as well, so that would be the likes of Depay, Werner, KDB, maybe add Kroos into the mix as well. I've currently got Brandt and recently bough back into Barella who I have good hopes for in the coming months, Brandt especially as it looks like he has finally established himself into the starting XI.

    If you're thinking of getting any Bundesliga players, now/soon would be a good time to do it as they are on a winter break so prices will be slightly lower than normal



  • @Dr-Jan-Itor

    You are not alone my man!

    I understand and appreciate your position. I am sure we are having the same thoughts as many other folk on the platform.

    I am actually looking at the current stagnation as a positive. It shows that the market can survive on it's own, without artificial stimulation and doesn't need to be shocked into life when flatlining.

    The footie is not free falling as it has previously, and is more than likely just correcting itself following a period of growth.

    I'm as positive as I have ever been about the future of this platform.

    My new money is being used to top up on players already in my portfolio, who have dipped a few pence in the last month. I still believe in these players and the reasons I bought them in the first place.



  • @Dr-Jan-Itor I'm the complete opposite - I see so much value all over the market but, like most, don't have the funds to take advantage right now.



  • @janner73 Out of interest, where do you see the value and why?



  • I can echo @johnboywalker and @janner73

    Its hard to know where to go for cap app, but value wise I think many players are showing a high potential yield with new divs.

    I think if it wasn't Xmas etc then pay day deposits would have carriedon going in on the pb hitters due to potential yields.

    Think pog n Neymar were 20%ers last season? Don't have data to hand at work, but think currently there is a lot more players on track now to return that sort of yield. (might be wrong, and will try and remember to look at data tonight!)



  • @Dr-Jan-Itor Everywhere. The market has nowhere near had the growth from a 57% dividend increase it should have and I don't believe it will until the new year. The value is there but people don't have the money right now so until either existing users have more money available or new users come in (both likely to happen in January) then most of the market just hasn't reached it's price potential.
    Anyone under £1.60 that has a reasonable chance of winning star man on a gold day is under-priced straight away - that's a 10% yield in one win and people were accepting less than 10% yields just a few months ago. And I still don't believe the market is accounting for age correctly so young PB players that will likely return divs for many years are significantly under-priced. How someone like a 23 year old Golovin who has won PB 3 times this season is cheaper than a 30 year old Parejo (who I think is reasonable value) is completely beyond me and that's just one example.



  • @janner73

    I'll tell you why Golovin is cheaper mate.

    That fuckin haircut ...

    0_1576069865008_Screenshot_20191124-171015_Samsung Internet.jpg



  • @janner73 im the same. To me it looks like theres value everywhere and i mean everywhere.



  • Echoed by many above but there would be plenty of players I'd be buying right now if I had the funds to do so (I've got a wish list of 10). What I think would be a mistake at present is to Instant sell a stagnant or decreasing in value player just to jump on a perceived better opportunity in a deflated market, many probably feel the same way.

    I have alot of young (under 25) PB/PB potential players whom about half have been decreasing in value little by little each day. It would be easy to assume that the market has viewed these holds as negative or 'peaked' but I've taken on board the growth over the last year and that consensus is December is a month when people will take profits or simply not invest.

    Can't remember whom said it on this forum but sometimes when the path isn't clear the best thing you can do is nothing. Revalidate your existing holds and anticipated exit points, If logic looks good then keep faith.



  • To be fair I am a novice at this having only joined recently. Like most people that start out I am tackling the index from 3 fronts; established players, PB's and nuggets to see how I should work on the index going forward. For what it is worth I am holding a couple for the futures ....Kristoffer Ajer (Celtic) strong defender, young and it is rumoured a move might be on the cards in January if Soyuncu moves from Leicester. At 79p a share might be worth a shout. Vukasin Jonanovic at Bordeaux is another I like - not bad stats, only 23 years old at at 34p a share not a kings ransom and not a lot to lose. Final one for me as I expect a move in January to the PL is Jarrod Bowen at Hull. A tadge more expensive than the other two but is being talked about in the right circles.



  • @Dr-Jan-Itor for value - look where the money isn't going at the minute.

    Put it there & wait for the change. 🤫

    I should really start charging a premium for my advice.



  • @DW said in Finding value for money?:

    Echoed by many above but there would be plenty of players I'd be buying right now if I had the funds to do so (I've got a wish list of 10). What I think would be a mistake at present is to Instant sell a stagnant or decreasing in value player just to jump on a perceived better opportunity in a deflated market, many probably feel the same way.

    I have alot of young (under 25) PB/PB potential players whom about half have been decreasing in value little by little each day. It would be easy to assume that the market has viewed these holds as negative or 'peaked' but I've taken on board the growth over the last year and that consensus is December is a month when people will take profits or simply not invest.

    Can't remember whom said it on this forum but sometimes when the path isn't clear the best thing you can do is nothing. Revalidate your existing holds and anticipated exit points, If logic looks good then keep faith.

    Absolutely spot on, well articulated. 👍



  • You need to decide between passive or active trading.

    If you want to sit and relax, just keep players which you believe will have a higher value in 12 months from now, regardless of trends.

    If you want to do active trading for reward (if you are doing active trading, you expect to have higher rewards vs passive trading), then you need to get away of mainstream reasoning style (who’s the strongest, who gives you more PB) and try to spot trends in advance, or ride trends when you see one arising. It’s very important to know when to sell. Many people tend to sit on players which completed their upward trend because they like to see green in their portfolio.

    How to spot a trend? Not easy, I try to envision how the market will behave 2-3 months in advance. In Nov it was clear that PL players would have seen an increase in value because PL is the only available league during Christmas. There is a mini trend ongoing on Leeds and West Brom because they are topping the league with 10 points advantage on the third in the list.

    There are some upcoming trends which are fairly obvious but still won’t materialize for weeks. In that case you need to sit and avoid to panick/ go after FOMO.

    Selling it’s equally important. Many people don’t sell at loss because they don’t want to feel like losers.



  • @NewUser455434 said in Finding value for money?:

    Many people tend to sit on players which completed their upward trend because they like to see green in their portfolio.

    Very true.

    If you looked at my portfolio just now, you would probably think I was a terrible trader. I've seen more green in the Sahara ... 🤣

    I accepted months ago that players rise and fall.

    Why ride every wave when the option is there to pick and choose the best ones to surf.

    For the record, I tried surfing once in Nam, and almost died, fact. 🏄‍♂️



  • For the record, I tried surfing once in Nam, and almost died, fact. 🏄‍♂️

    Not surprised - it's a fckn war zone! 😂


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